NL Power Rankings: Where Are the Reds?

[Kingspoint]

I hate "power rankings" in all sports.

I think they are the dumbest idea anyone has ever come up with as sports topics.

[RedsManRick]

Where would you rank the pitching staff as a whole? They may not have the top end that other teams have, but there is a real chance that the Reds are going to enter almost every game with a SP who is at minimum slightly better than league average.

Somewhere in the 3-4th range. Only Philly is very clearly better, I think, and the Reds do have legit #1 upside. The rotation should be up there among the best while the bullpen should be decent.

They won 83 games last year with an offense that was bad. If they can just get at a little more production from the aforementioned guys, as well as Geno providing some thump in the order, they should be able to approach 90 wins. I think the baseline on a normal season is 83 wins just like last year, but I think the upside is considerably higher. But a lot of the upside is "hope" and I don't really like to put the success/failure of a season on "hope."

I mean, yeah. If we hang on to all the good breaks from last year and then sprinkle on a few more on top, there we go. 90 wins. But I think we all tend to fall into the trap of doing projections based on realistic optimistic projections instead of actual expected value. We take for granted what went right in the past and imagine less going wrong.

For example, we intuitively pencil in Greene for 25 starts of a 3.00 ERA, a 3.5 to 4.0 WAR season. That's a very reasonable outcome, so what? I don't think he's going to have problems with untimely homers pushing his ERA up to 3.80. I don't think he's going to miss half the season with an oblique injury. But there are a ton of similarly reasonable outcomes that we simply don't include in our gut-level assessments. Considering all the possibilities for his season, that 4 WAR season is probably like the 75th percentile.

Could Sal Stewart hit .260/.330/.480? Absolutely! Could Geno hit 40 bombs again? Will Pagan put up another sub 3.00 ERA? Will Elly take a step forward and go 30/50 while playing good defense? Will Lodolo make 28 starts again? Will Abbott make 29 with an ERA a run below his peripherals? Etc. Etc. It's all possible. None of that, on a case-by-case basis, is unreasonable.

But 90 wins means most of that 75th percentile type stuff is happening and/or we're getting significant production from unexpected places. More likely, some of the good stuff happens while a fair amount of bad stuff happens too. Maybe Sal is CES 2.0. Maybe Lodolo's blisters flare up repeatedly. Maybe Greene blows out his arm again. Maybe Elly deals with persistent lower body issues. Maybe Abbot's smoke and mirrors act falls flat.

You factor in all the maybes in both directions and we're looking at a low 80s expectation with a good reason to hope for 90. I'd rather be the Dodgers and have a low 90s expectation. Unfortunately that's just not reality.

[bucksfan2]

Somewhere in the 3-4th range. Only Philly is very clearly better, I think, and the Reds do have legit #1 upside. The rotation should be up there among the best while the bullpen should be decent.



I mean, yeah. If we hang on to all the good breaks from last year and then sprinkle on a few more on top, there we go. 90 wins. But I think we all tend to fall into the trap of doing projections based on realistic optimistic projections instead of actual expected value. We take for granted what went right in the past and imagine less going wrong.

For example, we intuitively pencil in Greene for 25 starts of a 3.00 ERA, a 3.5 to 4.0 WAR season. That's a very reasonable outcome, so what? I don't think he's going to have problems with untimely homers pushing his ERA up to 3.80. I don't think he's going to miss half the season with an oblique injury. But there are a ton of similarly reasonable outcomes that we simply don't include in our gut-level assessments. Considering all the possibilities for his season, that 4 WAR season is probably like the 75th percentile.

Could Sal Stewart hit .260/.330/.480? Absolutely! Could Geno hit 40 bombs again? Will Pagan put up another sub 3.00 ERA? Will Elly take a step forward and go 30/50 while playing good defense? Will Lodolo make 28 starts again? Will Abbott make 29 with an ERA a run below his peripherals? Etc. Etc. It's all possible. None of that, on a case-by-case basis, is unreasonable.

But 90 wins means most of that 75th percentile type stuff is happening and/or we're getting significant production from unexpected places. More likely, some of the good stuff happens while a fair amount of bad stuff happens too. Maybe Sal is CES 2.0. Maybe Lodolo's blisters flare up repeatedly. Maybe Greene blows out his arm again. Maybe Elly deals with persistent lower body issues. Maybe Abbot's smoke and mirrors act falls flat.

You factor in all the maybes in both directions and we're looking at a low 80s expectation with a good reason to hope for 90. I'd rather be the Dodgers and have a low 90s expectation. Unfortunately that's just not reality.

We can put on our red colored glasses and make unrealistic predictions all day long. Its what Feb and March are for baseball, everyone has a chance before the games start. April and May often bring about more sober realizations about what kind of club you have.

I think the Reds errored in not addressing the offense enough. I like the Geno signing, I think he could be huge for this club, but also recognize that it could end poorly for both parties.

I think where most (if any) of my optimism arises is the pitching staff. And they may not have a ace caliber pitcher, nor do they have a top two that some teams can run out. But there is a real possibility that they will run out an above league average pitcher (at minimum) for most starts this season. That doesn't include what Burns or Lowder can provide if they kick the door down. I think it raises the floor to an extent that we haven't seen in a few years.

To counter the bolded part, sure there was good luck last year, but there were also some anomalies. They won 2 games when they were trailing after 8 innings, going 2-65 and were 3-12 in extra innings. The extra inning thing is crazy considering the ghost runner on 2nd. What if results like that normalize. What if the extra innings win percentage mirrors their regular season record? What if their trailing after 8 innings mirrors league average?

When looking at the 2025 Reds there were some pretty big holes, and obvious holes, but there were some statistical anomalies when it came to late inning performance that you would have to think work themselves out.

[Kc61]

With more HR capability, Reds should be better than last season. With decent health, they should win more than last year’s 83 games. I don’t know where that puts them in a power ranking but it’s favorable.

The main deficit is left handed hitting. The better RHPs will take advantage of the Reds’ sea of righty bats. Maybe that gets rectified somewhere along the line. Could use a stellar outfield defender too, OF defense is ordinary.

[shaggy]

The Reds pitching staff is very good but there are still questions with it. I like their chances going into the season but I am also realistic to the fact that it is not a pitching staff without some questions too.

How will Pagan at age 35 do considering he has never had back to back solid seasons and last year was the second best season of his career.
Will Santillan show any ill effects after being used a LOT last year and never pitching that much in his career.
Martinez while not great still pitched 165 innings, I think we all rightly assume that Burns will be better but what if he struggles who will pick up those innings and will they be at the level Martinez was.
Is Lowder going to be healthy and if so what will he contribute to the team, he was pretty bad last season in the minors but was solid for the Reds in 24.
Lodolo started 28 games last year, 7 more then any other season of his career. Can he do that again or will he battle injuries like he has in the past and even last year.
Can Hunter stay healthy all season.

[WrongVerb]

I hate "power rankings" in all sports.

I think they are the dumbest idea anyone has ever come up with as sports topics.

Same here. Seems more like a marketing gimmick than something with any real substance.

[WildcatFan]

I hate "power rankings" in all sports.

I think they are the dumbest idea anyone has ever come up with as sports topics.

I think it's a fun way to follow the story of a season, especially in MLB. The Athletic does a particularly good job explaining its rankings every Monday. Much easier than trying to keep up with gamers every day or two.

[RiverfrontRed]

Same here. Seems more like a marketing gimmick than something with any real substance.

It has people discussing it on a message board. So it's working.

[Redsfan08]

I think the Pirates are going to be the sleeper team in baseball this year.

[RiverfrontRed]

Mets, lol

Mets lost their 10th game in a row today.

[Kingspoint]

Mets lost their 10th game in a row today.

REDS won their 10th game in a row on this same day of games decided by one or two runs.

[wlf WV]

We're again in the basement of MLB teams in batting average, 30th out of 30 ! We are weak.
There's no reason to think we can continue to wear out this bullpen and win.

You would hope all aspects would improve, but I don't see the bullpen can get any better.

[redsrule2500]

Reds Pitching are in the bottom 1/3rd of MLB for Strikeouts, Walks, and WHIP - but somehow near the top for ERA, HR allowed.

That can't bode well for their pitching going forward. It seems like we've been getting amazingly lucky on the pitching side and scoring runs when they matter (1 run wins), but that can't continue. Not great.

[Sea Ray]

The idea is that the pitching will regress and the hitting will get better. It’s great to be on the winning side of all these games. Last year we were bemoaning all the well pitched games we were wasting. Lots of 1-0 losses


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