Cincinnati Reds 2026 Bullpen

[Ron Madden]

From Lance McAlister

Tony Santillan has yet to allow a run in 10 appearances this season.
He's the fourth Cincinnati Reds pitcher since 1900 to begin a season by producing 10 or more consecutive relief appearances without a run or extra-base hit, joining:
Logan Ondrusek (17 games, 2012)
Gabe White (11 games, 2002)
John Franco (11 games, 1987)

[LiferJim]

Question. With Pagan blowing last nights save, he now has two blown saves so far. Last year he had 6 the whole year. My question is, how many blown saves would you allow, before making a change? I happen to be in the camp that believes last season was an outlier for Emilio and I don’t believe he will duplicate what was a very good year. I’m not saying he will be horrible, but nothing close to last year. I know the Reds won’t do this right now, but Tony would be my closer. In what’s going to be a very tight division, I don’t think the Reds can afford to let him blow too many saves before making a change.


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[Caveman Techie]

IMO it's already too many blown saves from him. Every time he takes the mound he gives me a heart attack. For some reason he loves that "up in the zone" high heat. And it looks great when it works, but when it doesn't, he gets pounded. I don't think Pagan is a closer, I don't think Pagan is a setup man. He's a middle reliever at best and I can't wait for the Reds to figure that out.

[Sea Ray]

I saw a lot of shaky bullpen work this weekend starting of course with Minnesota. But the Dodgers Edwin Diaz got rocked yesterday. Milwaukee's BP is bad. Lots of blown saves in MLB. It does make for exciting baseball, I'll give the sport that

On a related subject, why is the stat of blown save so hard to find? Does Baseball Reference have it? If they do, I've missed it

[shaggy]

I saw a lot of shaky bullpen work this weekend starting of course with Minnesota. But the Dodgers Edwin Diaz got rocked yesterday. Milwaukee's BP is bad. Lots of blown saves in MLB. It does make for exciting baseball, I'll give the sport that

On a related subject, why is the stat of blown save so hard to find? Does Baseball Reference have it? If they do, I've missed it

Fangraphs shows blown saves, it is in their standard pitching stats.

[JCM11]

Pagan has the second worst FIP out of the pen at 5.51 with only Nicholas behind him. He also has the second lowest SO/9 with only Jose Franco K'ing fewer per 9. At some point your second worst FIP and strike out guy probably shouldn't be your closer.

FIP leaders are
Burke 2.06
Ashcraft 2.30
Santillan 2.53
Johnson 2.65

[shaggy]

Pagan has the second worst FIP out of the pen at 5.51 with only Nicholas behind him. He also has the second lowest SO/9 with only Jose Franco K'ing fewer per 9. At some point your second worst FIP and strike out guy probably shouldn't be you're closer.

FIP leaders are
Burke 2.06
Ashcraft 2.30
Santillan 2.53
Johnson 2.65

It is early but it is almost like Pagan has never put together back to back good years and the Reds felt he would do that for the first time at 35 years old.

[Sea Ray]

Moving Pagan could be dicey. He's at his worst in non save situations and do we really want him in the 8th of a one run game rather than the 9th?

[LiferJim]

Moving Pagan could be dicey. He's at his worst in non save situations and do we really want him in the 8th of a one run game rather than the 9th?

No, I would have Ashcraft pitching the 8th


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[RedTeamGo!]

I think you gotta leave everyone in their current roles until it is warm for awhile. Pagan looked shaky at beginning of last year IIRC and then in summer months he was downright dominant.

I honestly get the handwringing with him, but I like Pagan, he is a gamer and a crafty veteran.

[LiferJim]

I think you gotta leave everyone in their current roles until it is warm for awhile. Pagan looked shaky at beginning of last year IIRC and then in summer months he was downright dominant.

I honestly get the handwringing with him, but I like Pagan, he is a gamer and a crafty veteran.

I like him too, but I wouldn’t allow him to blow too many more before making a change, especially when you have options who appear to be better. Also remember as the weather heats up, those fly balls he gives up, go further.


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[UPRedsFan]

I like how Tito is managing the bullpen. Clearly his preferred is Ashcraft 7th, Tony 8th, and then Pagan in closing situations. But he's balancing their usage better this year. Phillips, Burke, Johnson and Moll are pretty good substitute options not to mention Ferguson eventually. Bullpen is a strength I'm not worried about. Starting pitching depth is the bigger worry until Lodolo and Greene are ready, along with the hitters who aren't hitting.

[foster15]

Question. With Pagan blowing last nights save, he now has two blown saves so far. Last year he had 6 the whole year. My question is, how many blown saves would you allow, before making a change? I happen to be in the camp that believes last season was an outlier for Emilio and I don’t believe he will duplicate what was a very good year. I’m not saying he will be horrible, but nothing close to last year. I know the Reds won’t do this right now, but Tony would be my closer. In what’s going to be a very tight division, I don’t think the Reds can afford to let him blow too many saves before making a change.


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I'm not sure that Pagan is really costing us anything with his two blown saves and I'm sure, more to come. Hear me out.

Every other part of our bullpen is functioning like a well oiled machine. If we remove Pagan from the closer role, where do we place him? If he's the worst relief pitcher on the staff, well, you get rid of him. But I don't think he is. He's got value. Do you place him in Santillan's role? Ashcrafts? Phillips? Burke? Johnson?

Okay, now here's the thing, I don't believe Pagan blows saves because he's overwhelmed by the closer role. I think he blows saves because some days he has it and some days he doesn't. So that means those games we're ahead by one to three runs in the 9th, if we used him earlier, he'd still give up those runs and we might be losing in the 9th.

I also don't want to mess with the rest of the bullpen because I'm afraid that it could have a domino effect in a bad way.

Pagan has the mental requirements of a closer. The role doesn't bother him and he's successful at it (at least last year) at an acceptable percentage. Moving him somewhere else is just rearranging chairs because it just means he'll give up those runs he gives up in the 9th, in a different inning.