Adam Duvall Appreciation Thread

[Strikes Out Looking]

I appreciate the fact that he should bring a starting pitcher that can throw 175 innings of sub 4.5 era sometime in December or January.

[Wonderful Monds]

I appreciate the fact that he should bring a starting pitcher that can throw 175 innings of sub 4.5 era sometime in December or January.

No thanks.

[Strikes Out Looking]

No thanks.

Corner OF's grow on trees in the Reds system; starting pitchers worth their weight are about as rare as a full eclipse - Duvall's value is at his highest for the next two years - this is nothing against him, I like him, but I'd rather see the Reds in a pennant race.

[Wonderful Monds]

Corner OF's grow on trees in the Reds system; starting pitchers worth their weight are about as rare as a full eclipse - Duvall's value is at his highest for the next two years - this is nothing against him, I like him, but I'd rather see the Reds in a pennant race.

Me too but trading the best LF the Reds have had in 10 years for Scott Feldman II wont achieve that.

[RED VAN HOT]

Corner OF's grow on trees in the Reds system; starting pitchers worth their weight are about as rare as a full eclipse - Duvall's value is at his highest for the next two years - this is nothing against him, I like him, but I'd rather see the Reds in a pennant race.

So suggest the name of a difference making pitcher with at least three years of control that would come back in a trade.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Right, a lot of the value being derived by Duvall is simply in aggregate stats... he's not producing WAR at a rate any higher than the average LF (ie. the "average" benchmark includes all players who field the position including replacement type players). There aren't only 10 guys that could provide Duvall's value on a per game basis in the event he did not exist.... a lot of the value he's deriving is by being more durable than the next guy. The average team is playing a combination of players and getting the same aggregate value out of the same amount of playing time the Reds get out of Duvall. For example, if Duvall went down, and the Reds leaned harder on Schebler/Winker, they wouldnt be likely to be producing 0 WAR, they would still be closing the gap.

Which is a skill in itself in many cases, but not necessarily one that can be banked on long term. No question that the last 2 years that Duvall has added value by being healthy, as there havent necessarily always been internal options that could adequately replace his at-bats.

1. Having watched the Cozarts, Larkins, Baileys, Gullets, Mesoracos, Gary Nolans, Finnegans, Rijos, and DeSclafanis (not to mention the Byrds, Ludwicks, and Eric Davises) of the world unable to play due to a variety of illnesses, pulls, tweaks, tears, and breaks, you'd think Red fans would appreciate a guy who's on the field enough to accrue excellent numbers. Staying on the field doesn't just matter-- it's vital. Especially for a team who historically hasn't had much depth.

2. Having seen the parade of remarkably poor LF options before Duvall (and after Dunn), I disagree with your assessment that the Reds have "always" had "internal options" as good.

You guys consistently underrate the value of being in the lineup. Votto isn't Votto just the best hitter in the league because he's a great hitter. Votto's the best player in the league because he's a great hitter every day.

[757690]

1. Having watched the Cozarts, Larkins, Baileys, Gullets, Mesoracos, Gary Nolans, Finnegans, Rijos, and DeSclafanis (not to mention the Byrds, Ludwicks, and Eric Davises) of the world unable to play due to a variety of illnesses, pulls, tweaks, tears, and breaks, you'd think Red fans would appreciate a guy who's on the field enough to accrue excellent numbers. Staying on the field doesn't just matter-- it's vital. Especially for a team who historically hasn't had much depth.

2. Having seen the parade of remarkably poor LF options before Duvall (and after Dunn), I disagree with your assessment that the Reds have "always" had "internal options" as good.

You guys consistently underrate the value of being in the lineup. Votto isn't Votto just the best hitter in the league because he's a great hitter. Votto's the best player in the league because he's a great hitter every day.

"90% of life is just showing up" - Woody Allen

[Patrick Bateman]

Having seen the parade of remarkably poor LF options before Duvall (and after Dunn), I disagree with your assessment that the Reds have "always" had "internal options" as good.

[/I].

You do realize that's not what I said, right? Rather than responding to what you think I'm saying, I find it's actually easier to read and tactfully respond. It's getting frustrating having my words twisted and assumed bias.

What I actually said was giving Duvall credit for being durable. He's so high up on the board because he has taken the field, and has been a solid contributor. I will restate that the reds have not always had that internal option present, and there's no question that his stability has been a positive benefit.

My point is that although he has accrued plenty of value, he has done so at a completely league average pace. The average team, through injury management, platoons, roster fill ins, etc, have been able to obtain comparable value out of their left field situation as the reds the last two years. What that speaks to is that although, durable, duvalls skill set does not accrue value in an extraordinary fashion. For as good as his power is, he struggles to get on base, and his defensive reputation has graded out as firmly average statistically. Many players are producing value at a similar pace, but simply either aren't afforded the opportunity, or have not been durable enough.... full credit to Duvall on the last point, yet teams still manage a way to get similar value out of their left field situation. Needless to say, if the reds produced similar value across the field, they would be a completely average team.... 50 percent of the games if you look across the dugout, the other teams left field situation has outproduced Duvall.

A point I made earlier that belongs in this discussion is that examining all left fielders, that have accrued 200 plate appearances this season against right handers, Duvall posts a rc rate ranked 30th out of 40 players. With a sample of that many players it includes many part time players.

Getting back to the votto comparison, it doesn't work. Votto is elite and durable. Duvall is durable, but he's far from elite. He's a regular hitter compared to his peers against right handed pitchers (while being very good historically against lefties). There is room for improvement 75 percent of the time the reds take the field, and it's not obscenely difficult to find that. Most teams are making it work equally as good or better in that situation. Looking at his comparables in this situation, nobody would mistake mallex smith, Jon jay, melky Cabrera and Ben gamel as anything near elite.... point being, Duvalls power can often be neutralized when he has trouble finding first.... it's important not to overstate how important getting on base can be to run creation, and why I feel the raw power stats he places highly on the leaderboards can significantly overstate his true value to run creation. I could show you the same leaderboard where he ranks highly on raw outs, and outranked by 36 out of 39 peers in on base percentage. If still all about context.

Now on the list of issues on the reds, this is not high priority. Duvall is cheap, and holding serve against his peers. He's not elevating the reds to the playoffs, but not holding them back. Many bigger holes at the moment. When the reds were overpaying an aging Ludwick to desperately plug the lf whole that prevented them from contending, Duvall would have been a huge saviour... I'd love to be able to go back and time and magically be able to plug him into that situation.

However, the reds do have a glut of oddball outfielders right now with varying skills, and I simply propose the reds not be in love with Duvall in all situations and consider finding creative ways to make the pieces work. You might even find with more rest and favourable matchup plays his rate stats show modest improvement, even if it comes at a cost of how many raw, total bases he can accumulate in a season. His bat is not so irreplaceable from the everyday lineup in some situations.

To me, Duvall is completely fine as "mr right now", but I'm not confusing him as "mr right".



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[kaldaniels]

I don't know that this has been mentioned but it is relevant.

There are a whole bunch of "blah" guys in LF around the majors. Without calling Duvall one of those "blah" guys let me just say there are really only a handful (certainly less than 10) of LF that I truly would be excited to have on my team, be it based on their current production or their room to improve.

The bar is set low for a decent LF.

[RedlegJake]

I like Duvall, I think he provides value with his slugging, and his durability. He's replaceable, though, and the Reds have Winker and Ervin ready and Elizalde is right there too although he probably has too little power to be a full time consideration. Duvall is a player a team should appreciate but let another team fall in love with - if they could land a decent, reliable starting pitcher with some control years they should consider it. If they trade Duvall they'll swap some OF power for better OBP (I believe Winker is the real deal if the "deal" is a 10 HR - .350-.360 OBP guy). If they could land a viable starter while increasing OBP in exchange for less power? All for that...

[Griffey012]

If the Reds can trade any of their corner outfielders for a SP of similar caliber and control they should. Not a knock against any of the corner guys, but they have an excess in one spot and a huge need in another.

[Strikes Out Looking]

If the Reds can trade any of their corner outfielders for a SP of similar caliber and control they should. Not a knock against any of the corner guys, but they have an excess in one spot and a huge need in another.

I appreciate the sentiment as I appreciate that Adam Duvall may have that type of trade value and I appreciate that some do not appreciate the irony of posts based on the title of the thread.

[757690]

If the Reds can trade any of their corner outfielders for a SP of similar caliber and control they should. Not a knock against any of the corner guys, but they have an excess in one spot and a huge need in another.

They definitely have a need at SP, but I'm not sure they have an excess at corner OF. They have Duvall who is solid, but not great. They have Schebler who is still unknown as a full time MLB player, and Winker who is still unknown as a MLB player.

Their need at SP suggests they should make a trade like that, but it's still a risk, imo.

[Raisor]

"90% of life is just showing up" - Woody Allen

Unless you're Zack Cozart.

[Bourgeois Zee]

You do realize that's not what I said, right? Rather than responding to what you think I'm saying, I find it's actually easier to read and tactfully respond. It's getting frustrating having my words twisted and assumed bias.

I don't believe I twisted anything.

I did move the discussion forward from your premise.

(I also find it ironic that you don't like assumed bias, then go right on ahead and assume bias.)

I will respectfully bow out.