lolOriginally Posted by Ron Gant
lol
117 NL batters had 350 PA's in 2019, 33 had a OPS of .850, 28% of them, only one Reds (Geno) had a OPS in that group. So if Senzel in his second season fails to to get a .850 OPS he should be jettisoned?
Facts.
CaiGuy (02-24-2020),Ron Gant (02-24-2020),Tom Servo (02-24-2020),Wonderful Monds (02-24-2020)
And, it's not about Senzel's total plate appearances. Most players would have had that many his first season he saw his first major league pitch. It's about how many months he's been seeing major league pitching and after as many months as he's been a major leaguer, his month-to-month OPS is far below where it should have been for his expected results. This gives a lot of doubt whether he truly is the player hewas hoped to be as he raced through the Minors.
Nobody has any idea what is going to happen as it's all up to Senzel and his ability to make the next adjustment, just as it is on Aquino. I'm just glad the REDS aren't incompetent enough to assume that players like Aquino, Winker and Senzel are going to make these adjustments. It's what has kept the REDS as perrennial losers for so long. They are proactive in their desire to win, and growth from young players enhance the Free Agent pickups now rather than the other way around. If Senzel, Aquino and Winker take the next step, it's a bonus now. If they don't, it's jot another disaster like it used to be. If they don't, no big deal. winning or losing doesn't depend on it.
Personally, I do see Senzel as a professional hitter and I believe he will OPS at least .850 this season, and so we will have more assets to help us win and cover the expected injuries that will happen throughout the team.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
Yes. His potential will still be greater than his output has been and the return would still be good. Nick Senzel's age-25 season was always expected for him to be in the Top-28% of NL hitters, as is his age-26, 27, 28 and 29 with him expected to be in the top-15% age-27, 28. His age-25 should be the first of his five best years. All five of those years should be .850+ OPS. He's not a rookie. He's not a sophomore. This is his 3rd season in the majors. He doesn't get a pass for fewer plate appearances because of his myriad of injuries. It's very likely that he fails to even get 350 plate appearances this season, so you can add all of those players with less than that to the totals. But, he still needs to have an OPS of .850+ this season. If he doesn't get it, he needs to be stopped looking at like he's a 1st Round pick, yet alone a Top-5 pick.
Again, I think he reaches it. It think Votto does, to. I think the REDS have at least four players finish above .850.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
I'm not really sure what this thread is about as Senzel is going to be a very good baseball player as long as he can stay on the field. If he is healthy he will be among the Reds starting 8 nearly every day (unless its a Dusty Baker Sunday Special).
Kingspoint (02-25-2020)
To be fair, I've heard it a few times too, but Shogo would still be our best defensive CF other than Nick. We certainly couldn't play any of our other outfielders in center...except Jankowski.
Without Senzel it'll be Castellanos, Shogo, and Winker/Aquino across the outfield. With Senzel I'm afraid Bell will platoon so much none of them gets enough ab's to find their rhythm.
I know, I know "it's a good problem to have"...until nobody can find their groove.
Does Pete hustle? Before the All-Star game he came into the clubhouse and took off his shoes and they ran without him. --Hank Aaron
When you play this game twenty years, go to bat ten-thousand times, and get three-thousand hits, do you know what that means? You've gone zero for seven-thousand. --Pete
REDREAD (02-25-2020)
your suggestion isn't great
For Love of the Game
"If you aren't first; you're last"
It seems to me every time Shogo was mentioned this offseason prior to being signed by the Reds he always mentioned as more of a corner OF moving forward than CF.
I certainly may be misremembering, but I don’t think so.
Either way, not really understanding the snarky responses on this one.
What would you say.....ya do here?
What if Senzel has an .849 OPS?
What would you say.....ya do here?
What if an OPS of .850 is no longer +.94 over the league average and is instead 1.24?
Kingspoint (02-25-2020)
The Cincinnati Reds, all offseason (even up to TODAY) have said that Nick Senzel is playing only center field. And every single time someone asks where Shogo plays they always say "he can play all three spots". I'm not sure what else anyone needs to hear, or how many more times they need to hear it, but the Reds have been telling you for months how things are going to play out with regards to center field. You just need to listen.
HammerTime (02-25-2020),marcshoe (02-24-2020),mth123 (02-25-2020),ochoa30 (02-24-2020),Redhook (02-24-2020),Ron Madden (02-24-2020),WrongVerb (02-24-2020)
Clearly, if he's anywhere near .850, such as .840 or .830, then it would take a greater return to make the deal. But, I like the idea of filling the pipeline of the 3rd-worst farm system in the majors should Senzel "only" produce an OPS of .800 or .810. Now that the REDS have shown the ability to use free agency and trades in a productive manner, trading an under-achieving and injury-plagued Senzel (and that's what he would be should he OPS in the area I'm speaking about) right before the 2nd season of his five prime years where there will still be plenty of G.M.'s who would pay with a number of good prospects, I would welcome the move as a smart one by our G.M. Not every prospect should be seen to its dead-end course, the norm for the REDS for as long as I can remember.
Last edited by Kingspoint; 02-25-2020 at 12:43 AM.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
Frank Robinson (03-04-2020)
An obvious point which should be fully adjusted for, just like Darryl Strawberry's .501 SLG pct (going off of memory here, so I could be off a little, but the point is the same) that was 2nd in the league in 1985.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
Hey, the 1988 Rookies of the year had the following numbers
Weiss .250/.312/ .321/ .633
Sabo .271/ .314/ .414/ .728
Senzel would have outperformed both.
My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!
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