Time to blow it up!

[Kinsm]

That's the plan that failed so spectacularly in 2015-18. Continuing to try that and expecting different results is baseball orthodoxy, but while we're complaining the Reds might have crossed halfway across the void to respectability. I'll take this over the death march they were on.

That really wasn't their plan though. Their plan was for the prospects that came from Frazier, Bruce, Cueto, Leake, etc. trades to turn this club into a competitive one. It wasn't, as many of you suggest, relying on their own draft prospects.

The fact is the Reds were either bad judges of talent and/or inept at developing talent.

Trading away upper echelon prospects for 1 year rentals is not helping this club.

[M2]

That really wasn't their plan though. Their plan was for the prospects that came from Frazier, Bruce, Cueto, Leake, etc. trades to turn this club into a competitive one. It wasn't, as many of you suggest, relying on their own draft prospects.

The fact is the Reds were either bad judges of talent and/or inept at developing talent.

Trading away upper echelon prospects for 1 year rentals is not helping this club.

It was still "prospects will save us." They didn't. Plus, I remain fine with the prospects they've dealt away. They've identified what they clearly think is a market inefficiency. Everyone's chasing control and then getting stuck when their payrolls get bloated. The Reds might be shuffling shorter-term guys, hoping a turnstile operation gets more talent on the roster than they can grow on the farm or afford to keep on extended deals.

[GAC]

They've blown this team up so much the residents of Cincinnati have to wear hearing protection.

[mth123]

That really wasn't their plan though. Their plan was for the prospects that came from Frazier, Bruce, Cueto, Leake, etc. trades to turn this club into a competitive one. It wasn't, as many of you suggest, relying on their own draft prospects.

The fact is the Reds were either bad judges of talent and/or inept at developing talent.

Trading away upper echelon prospects for 1 year rentals is not helping this club.

I actually think the plan was to make a quick rebuild behind a Bailey, Iglesias, Disco rotation and offense with Votto and Mesoraco driving in fleas. Where they went wrong was what they did after that blew up in their face with the injuries to Bailey, Mesoraco and Disco and Iglesias being unable to hold-up as a starter. I think their own and acquired prospects - Lorenzen, Finnegan, Reed, Garrett, Stephenson, Mella were viewed as guys to fill the back of the rotation and the bullpen with the idea that one or two might step forward as staff leaders eventually but weren't necessary to be part of the core to contend. Whne that rotation plan evaporated the rushed the kids, rushed guys back from injuries and turned to the scrap heap while wasting Votto's prime hoping it would all come together. Their plan B was simply non-existent and I think had a lot to do with why a lot of those guys took so long to come back from injuries and why so many of those kids couldn't make the jump to the big leagues. The only decisive moves they made were to put Iglesias and Lorenzen in the bullpen and I think they both worked out pretty well. It was all the indecision and hoping that caused the problems.

They did make a pretty big misjudgment on offense with a lot of their plan built around low on base, low power speedsters providing a top of the order for their MVP to drive in. THat plan was doomed from the beginning.

[Sea Ray]

I'm hoping this is correct, but with what this team has on the field, do we really expect an upgrade next year? Is there enough money to add two or three bats, two or three relievers and possibly another starting pitcher? A lot of what went right in 2019 is unlikely to repeat itself (Puig/Aquino in RF), Dietrich's hot start, the overall play received at SS, Suarez' likely career year. Prodcution from role players like Phillip Ervin, Josh VanMeter, Curt Casali and Kyle Farmer. What of Senzel's situation? Will Gray and Castillo be as good next year? Expecting so is pretty optimistic. Not saying they are bad, but matching what they did this year is an awfully high expectation. If 2019 is the jumping off point, I just see more downside than upside going forward.

There's definitely enough money but it takes more than that. It has to be spent prudently. Sonny Gray was a good move. Committing to another Homer Bailey deal, absolutely not. The thing with FAs is that they want long term deals. We've seen that those rarely work out long term and this is league wide, not just here.

[mth123]

I don't know. I don't think they get there without making a non-conventional move or two. I take some solace in that they've been willing to make moves for the past year. There's a lot of different stuff they could do. I figure they'll try something.

I'm pretty certain they'll make a non-conventional move or two, but that only scratches the surface of the stuff that will likely backslide from where we are right now. They'll need 4 or 5 more of those moves to bridge the sizable gap between what the Reds are and what a good team looks like. They do have a rotation core and that is a solid foundation to build on, but they need a lot and the stuff they think they have is unlikely to perform as well next year as they did this year. Again, they would need an .800+ OPS with 38 HR, solid speed and defense just to get the same from RF as they got this year. Other positions have similar likely drops in production. I think the position player side of the team has significant gap between where they are to where they need to be and if anyone goes backwards, that gap just gets larger. Seems a huge task for one off-season. If they could get favorable deals fro Rendon, Grandal and Gregorious this winter, that still wouldn't likely be anough to make this team on par with a play-off roster.

The only reason I'm not on board with the blow it up crowd is because I don't like the prospect of more seasons of tanking. Logically, I think it may be where the team finds itself now. I honestly didn't expect that to be the case in Spring Training this year.

[BCubb2003]

There's definitely enough money but it takes more than that. It has to be spent prudently. Sonny Gray was a good move. Committing to another Homer Bailey deal, absolutely not. The thing with FAs is that they want long term deals. We've seen that those rarely work out long term and this is league wide, not just here.

This is where I go back to what everybody finds easy to say, that Castellini has all that money that comes from the steadily increasing value of the franchise. From the way people talk, shouldn’t it be enough to get Gregorius, Rendon, an outfielder at that level, and two relievers at that level? Or even better players, if you’d like? Blowing it up just means another five years of despair. Trading just leaves holes in other places. It’s time to use this stash that everyone talks about.

[foster15]

A lot of you seem to feel the Reds need to be great at every position. No team is.

After checking out the difference in key stats between the Reds and the division leading Cardinals, the one thing that stands out to me is Pitching and especially relief pitching. The Cardinals relievers have better stats than their starters. The Reds need to shoot for the same while improving their starting pitching a little at the same time. The Cardinals have scored 28 more runs than the Reds. Joey Votto needs to make 2019 an outlier by having an improved 2020 (doesn't have to be 2010 or 2017 Joey Votto for this to happen) to make up a lot of those runs if everything else remains unchanged. And while we can't just flip a switch to make that happen, we have him under contract for about 4 more years so we have to hope that happens. Being he's batting in the 2 hole rather than the 3 hole should mean those Runs scored should come easier than in the past.

The Reds do not need much improvement anywhere other than relief pitching to contend. Blowing it up would be ridiculous without attempting to fix the relief pitching first.

[M2]

I'm pretty certain they'll make a non-conventional move or two, but that only scratches the surface of the stuff that will likely backslide from where we are right now. They'll need 4 or 5 more of those moves to bridge the sizable gap between what the Reds are and what a good team looks like. They do have a rotation core and that is a solid foundation to build on, but they need a lot and the stuff they think they have is unlikely to perform as well next year as they did this year. Again, they would need an .800+ OPS with 38 HR, solid speed and defense just to get the same from RF as they got this year. Other positions have similar likely drops in production. I think the position player side of the team has significant gap between where they are to where they need to be and if anyone goes backwards, that gap just gets larger. Seems a huge task for one off-season. If they could get favorable deals fro Rendon, Grandal and Gregorious this winter, that still wouldn't likely be anough to make this team on par with a play-off roster.

The only reason I'm not on board with the blow it up crowd is because I don't like the prospect of more seasons of tanking. Logically, I think it may be where the team finds itself now. I honestly didn't expect that to be the case in Spring Training this year.

I'm trying not to pre-judge what will or won't work, largely because they're pretty close on the run differential end of things. Strengthen the bullpen, better seasons from Votto and Senzel, a free agent push from Bauer - that might get them most of the way there. A few things go right plus a weird move or two pan out and they might be good.

[MM83]

A 90-95 loss team can’t trade 3 of their top 10 prospects for 1.3 years of Trevor bauer

That Is effectively what they did. And they also got a few months of puig and wood. But are still a bad team

[M2]

A 90-95 loss team can’t trade 3 of their top 10 prospects for 1.3 years of Trevor bauer

That Is effectively what they did. And they also got a few months of puig and wood. But are still a bad team

They can. They did. They now have a better team.

[MM83]

They can. They did. They now have a better team.

See. It would have sorta kinda almost made sense if the big return guy was under contract for 3-4 years more. (Like the gray trade and extension)

Trading all Of that for one full season of a good pitcher is ridiculous. No competent team would do that

They are 20 more wins away from contention. And that’s with BAuer.

[Tony Cloninger]

A 90-95 loss team can’t trade 3 of their top 10 prospects for 1.3 years of Trevor bauer

That Is effectively what they did. And they also got a few months of puig and wood. But are still a bad team

I thought they only traded Moss and Trammell for Bauer. Is that Trammell still a good prospect?

[M2]

See. It would have sorta kinda almost made sense if the big return guy was under contract for 3-4 years more. (Like the gray trade and extension)

Trading all Of that for one full season of a good pitcher is ridiculous. No competent team would do that

They are 20 more wins away from contention. And that’s with BAuer.

The Reds have, at least temporarily, dispatched with the illusion of control. They've gone full Thoreau - the things you own actually own you. I don't know if it's ultimately going to deliver the results we want, but the improvement has been tangible (that run differential gain is legit). You're insisting they obey a lot of rules that made them the worst team in MLB for the 2015-18 stretch. Putting those rules in a sack with a bunch of rocks and tossing it into the Ohio River might be the most sensible thing the Reds have done in years.

[foster15]

I thought they only traded Moss and Trammell for Bauer. Is that Trammell still a good prospect?

I think he's referring to Downs also. Either way, deals are made without crystal ball. The Reds imo are in a position to move forward and I'm not sweating the past deals. Heck they might turn Bauer into someone else on a one or two year contract at some point and then MM83's post is meaningless.