Puig: Let's talk about him

[JFLegal]

all sizzle, no steak? or about to catch fire as he usually does in june and beyond?

i'm going with the latter, somewhat out of convenience.

[Ohiohaybaler]

all sizzle, no steak? or about to catch fire as he usually does in june and beyond?

i'm going with the latter, somewhat out of convenience.

I have been following him his entire career, and his batting average was never anywhere near as low as it is this year, even in early June. In 2019, it's all fizzle.

[757690]

If you normalize his BABIP, he's around a league average hitter. With his defense, that puts him at around a 2-3 fWAR player. That's about what was expected out of him. It seems he's not benefiting much from GABP, in fact, his ISOP is down this season from his career average.

My guess is he'll improve, but not to where most Reds fans were expecting him to be.

[RiverfrontRed]

My crystal ball says .259/ 26 HR/ 71 RBI/ .812 OPS

[Kc61]

Against righties his OPS is .609

[fielder's choice]

If you normalize his BABIP, he's around a league average hitter. With his defense, that puts him at around a 2-3 fWAR player. That's about what was expected out of him. It seems he's not benefiting much from GABP, in fact, his ISOP is down this season from his career average.

My guess is he'll improve, but not to where most Reds fans were expecting him to be.

BABIP always gets brought up around here and I really don't get it. The insinuation seems to be that it strictly has to do with luck. Maybe that's not what you and others are saying but I hope you or someone will elaborate. What is 'normalizing' it and why would that be helpful? Obviouslly all balls put into play aren't equal. All it seems to me like you're saying is if Puig made better contact, he'd have better numbers. I'm all for new metrics that can help me better understand the game and the players, but I just don't see it with this one. Maybe I'm missing something.

[757690]

BABIP always gets brought up around here and I really don't get it. The insinuation seems to be that it strictly has to do with luck. Maybe that's not what you and others are saying but I hope you or someone will elaborate. What is 'normalizing' it and why would that be helpful? Obviouslly all balls put into play aren't equal. All it seems to me like you're saying is if Puig made better contact, he'd have better numbers. I'm all for new metrics that can help me better understand the game and the players, but I just don't see it with this one. Maybe I'm missing something.

First, you’re correct there is no guarantee that a player will end up with their career BABIP by the end of the season. However, odds are high that they will, and if their other batted ball numbers are similar to their career ones, it’s even higher.

Second, I try to say “if” you normalize a players BABIP, because the goal is not to predict what he produce, but just to understand what he is capable of producing. My main point was that even if Puig’s BABIP normalizes over the season, he’s not going to be as productive as most Reds fans are expecting. And that might not even happens, which would mean he’s even less productive.

[JFLegal]

i will say puig does seem to be hitting a lot of hard balls right at defenders for outs. so, that's a good sign as far as his BABIP is concerned.

[M2]

BABIP always gets brought up around here and I really don't get it. The insinuation seems to be that it strictly has to do with luck. Maybe that's not what you and others are saying but I hope you or someone will elaborate. What is 'normalizing' it and why would that be helpful? Obviouslly all balls put into play aren't equal. All it seems to me like you're saying is if Puig made better contact, he'd have better numbers. I'm all for new metrics that can help me better understand the game and the players, but I just don't see it with this one. Maybe I'm missing something.

It's pretty simple math. As the season wears on, most everyone tends to drift toward .300. Bad pitchers and feckless hitters sometimes don't. Puig isn't a feckless hitter.

[fielder's choice]

First, you’re correct there is no guarantee that a player will end up with their career BABIP by the end of the season. However, odds are high that they will, and if their other batted ball numbers are similar to their career ones, it’s even higher.

Second, I try to say “if” you normalize a players BABIP, because the goal is not to predict what he produce, but just to understand what he is capable of producing. My main point was that even if Puig’s BABIP normalizes over the season, he’s not going to be as productive as most Reds fans are expecting. And that might not even happens, which would mean he’s even less productive.

So you're normalizing it to their career numbers? That makes a bit more sense.

[Roy Tucker]

It's pretty simple math. As the season wears on, most everyone tends to drift toward .300. Bad pitchers and feckless hitters sometimes don't. Puig isn't a feckless hitter.

So, I wondered about the word feckless. I thought it meant you didn’t have feck. But I’d never heard of the work feck (spell check is having a time with it).

So I found this. https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/feckless

“Did you know that most varieties of English are in fact “feck”-less? They don’t contain a word feck, only the negative counterpart feckless. The “feck” in feckless began as a short form of effect used in the Scots dialect. So feckless essentially means "ineffective," but is also used to describe someone who is irresponsible, incompetent, inept, or without purpose in life.”

So I learned something new today.

[fielder's choice]

It's pretty simple math. As the season wears on, most everyone tends to drift toward .300. Bad pitchers and feckless hitters sometimes don't. Puig isn't a feckless hitter.

So what are you saying? Puig has just been a little unlucky and he's fine?

[Wonderful Monds]

I think like 2-2.5 wins sounds about right. It’ll be a slightly down year for him, which is a bummer in GABP

[M2]

So what are you saying? Puig has just been a little unlucky and he's fine?

Probably. The elevated K rate is reason for concern. If that stays high, it will put a drag on his numbers. But it's the nature of the game that more hits will start falling for him.

[marcshoe]

So, I wondered about the word feckless. I thought it meant you didn’t have feck. But I’d never heard of the work feck (spell check is having a time with it).

So I found this. https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/feckless

“Did you know that most varieties of English are in fact “feck”-less? They don’t contain a word feck, only the negative counterpart feckless. The “feck” in feckless began as a short form of effect used in the Scots dialect. So feckless essentially means "ineffective," but is also used to describe someone who is irresponsible, incompetent, inept, or without purpose in life.”

So I learned something new today.

I try my best to be feckful, but sometimes I don't have a feck to give.