Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

[757690]

This isn’t true fwiw

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...e-transmission
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/03/healt...ntl/index.html

The data is looking good but it’s far from conclusive at this point. From the NYT article:

The rate of positive PCR tests declined by about half after two doses, according to preliminary results by researchers at the University of Oxford that have yet to be peer reviewed.

Speaking to the UK's Science Media Centre (SMC), Helen Fletcher, professor of immunology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the data in the study "suggest a possibility that the vaccine could have an impact on transmission but further follow-up would be needed to confirm this."

Dr. Doug Brown, chief executive of the British Society for Immunology, told the SMC the study "hints that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine may be effective in stopping people being able to transmit the virus."

[Boston Red]

As long as we get the most vulnerable vaccinated, I don't really care if those who are vaccinated can spread it. It's better if they don't, of course, but it's way past time to get on with life even if they do (once the most vulnerable are vaccinated).

[Sea Ray]

I forget where I read it, but apparently cases dropped pretty similarly across the world over in Europe and etc in places that correlated pretty strongly by latitude, which I guess apparently implies there is some sort of seasonal effect that’s kicking in. I don’t think the vaccines would make a major difference to the extent it’s happening yet.

I don't think seasonal can begin to explain it. I think it's mainly a combination of folks getting vaccinated and natural immunity. Think of all those months of high numbers of people testing positive. Those that survived (which was most of them) now have immunity. Multiply that by at least 3 (those that were positive but never sought out a test). Add all those numbers up and you have a significant number of people who now have an immunity to C19. That is naturally going to reflect in the current C19 numbers.

[RedTeamGo!]

First of all I don't know when or if we'll ever get half of America vaccinated. I'm guessing about 150 mill will volunteer to be vaccinated. I think we have about 100 mill who have natural immunity based upon those that have tested positive and those that were likely infected but didn't seek out doctor's care, but rather than deal with guesses, let's deal with the here and now.

What's the problem if I take a flight somewhere? How 'bout go to a crowded craft beer bar? A restaurant? A Reds game? Why can't I do all that right now? I haven't gotten sick for over a year. Now my chances of getting sick enough to warrant a hospital stay/death are pretty much zero. My chances of getting sick at all are very, very slim...probably less than my getting the flu or numerous other ailments out there...so why continue to let this virus run my life? There's still a ton of fear mongering going on out there and I've had enough. I'm going to follow the science

I get it. I’m pretty over it as well. This winter has been brutal.

I wasn’t asking a leading question or anything, I just figured you had heard what the experts had said with regard to how much longer they expect people to socially distance.

[Sea Ray]

As long as we get the most vulnerable vaccinated, I don't really care if those who are vaccinated can spread it. It's better if they don't, of course, but it's way past time to get on with life even if they do (once the most vulnerable are vaccinated).

Exactly. Here's a fact we all can agree with: there will never be a time in our lives when this virus will be completely eradicated. There will always be some chance that you can catch it. So how long are we going to live in fear of it? When are we going to accept that life has risks and get on with life?

[Wonderful Monds]

I don't think seasonal can begin to explain it. I think it's mainly a combination of folks getting vaccinated and natural immunity. Think of all those months of high numbers of people testing positive. Those that survived (which was most of them) now have immunity. Multiply that by at least 3 (those that were positive but never sought out a test). Add all those numbers up and you have a significant number of people who now have an immunity to C19. That is naturally going to reflect in the current C19 numbers.

Could be. But from what I read last week or so, numbers were dropping pretty universally across Europe, even in countries that have struggled to secure many vaccinations. Like Germany for example. My guess is that it is a combination of all the above, seasonality, and herd immunity through widespread infections and vaccinations.

[Wonderful Monds]

I agree with you here WM.

However there is always a way for those vaccinated to spread it - say someone sneezes towards you (you are vaccinated) - you inhale in into your nostrils, then you sneeze it out soon after and someone else gets the virus. Do I suspect (trials pending) that that will be a rare event - yes I do. But being able to say “you can still transmit the virus even if you are vaccinated” is a powerful statement that will used to stir up fear. (I’m glad to err on the side of caution for now and will always follow the prudent science. But I’ve already seen many people make that statement leaving it at face value without diving into what it really means)

I think it might always be technically possible, but I think it will be pretty rare. From what I recall, asymptomatic spread (as opposed to pre-symptomatic spread) is extremely rare, and the mRNA vaccines at least prevent 95% or so of symptomatic infections. So it might be possible, but it’ll be pretty rare.

The data is looking good but it’s far from conclusive at this point. From the NYT article:

It might be inconclusive in strictly scientific terms at this point, but everything I’ve read seems to indicate that it would be pretty unusual for a vaccine as effective as the Pfizer and Moderna ones at least to not reduce transmission. So they haven’t confirmed it in a lab setting as of right now - and my understanding is that they might not ever be able to do that without challenge trials. But circumstantial evidence seems to point to both those vaccines at least heavily reducing the spread of covid.

[Wonderful Monds]

Honestly the main reason for the ambiguous messaging towards those who have been vaccinated at this point seems to be for one purpose - they’re asking people who have been vaccinated to keep living under precautions, mask and social distance and avoid the unvaccinated etc - because if officially you tell vaccinated people they can go back to normal, there are going to be a bunch of people who will claim they’ve gotten it before they really actually have and spread it, or maybe worse actively try to get infected to gain immunity.

That’s the rationale anyway. I’ll be going back to bars and restaurants and the gym or whatever I want to do a week from Friday when I get my second Pfizer dose. But that seems to be the justification towards telling those who are vaccinated to keep up the precautions.

[Sea Ray]

I get it. I’m pretty over it as well. This winter has been brutal.

I wasn’t asking a leading question or anything, I just figured you had heard what the experts had said with regard to how much longer they expect people to socially distance.

I absolutely have heard "the experts" and I'm done with them. They're no longer making sense and they're not following the science. I also do not think they're helping the situation. For example, the best way to sell people on getting a vaccine is to give them a carrot on the end of the stick. They ought to say "if you'd like to see and hug your grandchildren again...go out to a restaurant...fly on an airplane etc etc...get vaccinated. But they're not saying that and it's crap

[Sea Ray]

Could be. But from what I read last week or so, numbers were dropping pretty universally across Europe, even in countries that have struggled to secure many vaccinations. Like Germany for example. My guess is that it is a combination of all the above, seasonality, and herd immunity through widespread infections and vaccinations.

I vote for your "all the above" . My issue is with your seasonality lowering cases. Why would Jan/Feb lower cases? Know which month by far is traditionally the worst for flu? If you guessed February, go to the head of the class

In the United States, flu season occurs in the fall and winter. While influenza viruses circulate year-round, most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, but activity can last as late as May.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

So it seems to me that "seasonality" (late Jan/early Feb) would tend to raise cases rather than lower them

[Wonderful Monds]

I vote for your "all the above" . My issue is with your seasonality lowering cases. Why would Jan/Feb lower cases? Know which month by far is traditionally the worst for flu? If you guessed February, go to the head of the class



https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

So it seems to me that "seasonality" (late Jan/early Feb) would tend to raise cases rather than lower them

I would actually tend to agree that at face value, from a seasonality perspective, it would seem like cases should still be going up for that reason rather than down. Although the flu and covid do spread differently, so what might be seasonal for the flu might not be seasonal for covid.

But I’m also just basing that off of people smarter than me who I saw pointing out the decline in cases and countries latitudinal climate. I would be surprised if that were a sole reason.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Honestly the main reason for the ambiguous messaging towards those who have been vaccinated at this point seems to be for one purpose - they’re asking people who have been vaccinated to keep living under precautions, mask and social distance and avoid the unvaccinated etc - because if officially you tell vaccinated people they can go back to normal, there are going to be a bunch of people who will claim they’ve gotten it before they really actually have and spread it, or maybe worse actively try to get infected to gain immunity.

That’s the rationale anyway. I’ll be going back to bars and restaurants and the gym or whatever I want to do a week from Friday when I get my second Pfizer dose. But that seems to be the justification towards telling those who are vaccinated to keep up the precautions.

I think they say you need to wait a few weeks until the vaccine gets into your body enough to give you the full effect of it. Once I get the vaccine (probably in April or May at the earliest) I plan to do a few things that I haven't done in a year - but I think I'll continue to stay away from non-masked crowds for awhile - not getting non-covid sick in the last year has been a positive! (I will probably go to a ballgame when its allowable however)

[Sea Ray]

I would actually tend to agree that at face value, from a seasonality perspective, it would seem like cases should still be going up for that reason rather than down. Although the flu and covid do spread differently, so what might be seasonal for the flu might not be seasonal for covid.

But I’m also just basing that off of people smarter than me who I saw pointing out the decline in cases and countries latitudinal climate. I would be surprised if that were a sole reason.

I guess I'm not seeing what you're going by to support a seasonality factor. If you want to discuss latitudinal climate, fine. Let's look at Brazil. They spiked in August (our February) and they also hit another spike in early Jan . I'm not seeing any seasonality factor here based on latitudes

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html

[WrongVerb]

This isn’t true fwiw

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...e-transmission
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/03/healt...ntl/index.html

Awesome! I must have missed that.

[WrongVerb]

As long as we get the most vulnerable vaccinated, I don't really care if those who are vaccinated can spread it. It's better if they don't, of course, but it's way past time to get on with life even if they do (once the most vulnerable are vaccinated).

I'm sick of it as well. But there isn't a set time past which we should just "get on with life." We've got to adult this thing through to its end. (What should really chap your ass is that if we'd done a hard lock down at the beginning of this thing, we'd be 6 months into a recovery right now.)