Vladimir Gutierrez

[Kc61]

I don’t think Vlad’s stuff is as good as Mahle’s.

I kind of think Vlad is getting by on smoke and mirrors. Hope I’m wrong.

Vlad has certainly been fortunate with his HR/FB rate. As of this morning it’s only 6.7% (elite but likely unsustainable). And a .206 BABIP. He never has been much of a bat misser, except for a brief stint at AAA earlier this season.

Still, he’s worth the effort to work with Driveline and DJ and see what they can add. He seems to have the control and poise to pitch well. Agree needs an uptick in the stuff department.

Edit: I see some of these points are in the Fangraphs article posted by RedEye above.

[WrongVerb]

I thought that against the Cubs and Cardinals but he's looked solid in his two starts against Milwaukee. He got away with a couple of fastballs down the pipe that Brewer batters either fouled off of just swung and missed, but otherwise he was locating well and moving the ball in/out/up/down.

If he keeps throwing those breaking balls for strikes, he's going to continue getting by. Now that I've seen him, I'm certainly bullish on him.

[M2]

Regardless of whether Vlad can sustain this, he's a better pitcher now than he's been at any point in his journey through the minors. After a 6.04 ERA in AAA in 2019 and a PED suspension last year, he looked done. His turnaround has been amazing. At the very least he profiles as a guy who could give them help in the pen even if he's shaky as a starter.

[JFLegal]

analytics gone wild. nowhere in analytics do they factor in a thing called a rookie pitcher improving as he goes along. the write-up from fangraphs just assumes his stuff will stay exactly the same and he won't make any improvements. now, maybe he is getting by with smoke and mirrors, but i'm surprised they don't even give any consideration to the idea that a rookie pitcher is going to improve.

regardless, like M2 said, i'm thrilled he's even doing what he's doing because i thought he was done after what transpired the last couple years.

[KeefeCato]

He is a breathe of fresh air. Guy is a battler. No he doesn't have the greatest stuff in the world. Which is why myself and I am sure others thought he wouldn't last. He has earned a spot on this club. Whether it be as a starter or a reliever in future seasons. He is a asset.

[JFLegal]

he will come back to earth for sure. but even when he does, he's markedly better than jeff hoffman.

[RedTeamGo!]

I mean, the dude throws 93 mph meatballs right down the pipe. He seems kind of like a pitch-to-contact guy. So far, the contact has been going to outfielders. I don’t think it’s just about analytics. Use your eyes.

[M2]

analytics gone wild. nowhere in analytics do they factor in a thing called a rookie pitcher improving as he goes along. the write-up from fangraphs just assumes his stuff will stay exactly the same and he won't make any improvements. now, maybe he is getting by with smoke and mirrors, but i'm surprised they don't even give any consideration to the idea that a rookie pitcher is going to improve.

Getting angry at the analytics doesn't change what they're telling us. I'm enjoying the hell out of Vlad's current run. I think he might settle into a bullpen role with the extra velo he supposedly has working shorter stints. Maybe he continues to improve in future seasons. In the meantime, I'll take lucky, especially from a guy who's just keeping a rotation slot occupied until Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo take it. Vlad only needs to be Mr. Right Now, and he's doing a great job of it.

[Griffey012]

Getting angry at the analytics doesn't change what they're telling us. I'm enjoying the hell out of Vlad's current run. I think he might settle into a bullpen role with the extra velo he supposedly has working shorter stints. Maybe he continues to improve in future seasons. In the meantime, I'll take lucky, especially from a guy who's just keeping a rotation slot occupied until Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo take it. Vlad only needs to be Mr. Right Now, and he's doing a great job of it.

His xERA is 2.97 though. It's not like he is giving up a bunch of ropes and just getting lucky. His k rate has been there the past two starts. HR/FB rate is all but guaranteed to rise, but that doesn't mean impending doom. There's a few ways things can go from here:

1. Players start to make better contact leading to worse results that line up closer to his FIP and xFIP
2. Some of that weak contact turns into more strikeouts, bringing his FIP and xFIP closer to his xERA
3. Somewhere in between, Vlad starts getting more K's but also giving up harder contact and HR/FB revert to the mean. His xERA and xFIP diverge toward the middle.

All in all, if he can just be a 4-4.5 ERA type and give us 5-6IP consistently he's a big boost for the rotation over the likes of Hoffman.

[Roy Tucker]

I like seeing the success he is having and it’s helping the Reds. He is ably filling a slot at the bottom of the rotation.

But the real test will be after he shows all of his pitches and where he likes the throw them and the sequences he likes to use. There are many pitching coaches and scouts pouring over the videos of what he does and it’s just a matter of time till the league starts to catch up. That’s when the *real* test starts and if he is able to adjust what the hitters do and the subsequent and eternal dance between pitcher and hitter.

But till that day comes, I’ll enjoy the success he is currently having.

[mgbrown66]

I can say this with 100% certainty, Vlad makes the game easier to watch than Hoffman. Hoffman just walks too many people. It's bad television.

[Mitri]

I can say this with 100% certainty, Vlad makes the game easier to watch than Hoffman. Hoffman just walks too many people. It's bad television.

Reds are 12-6 since Hoffman's last appearance. Might want to just play it safe and keep that guy off the roster. De Leon as well.

[M2]

Reds are 12-6 since Hoffman's last appearance. Might want to just play it safe and keep that guy off the roster. De Leon as well.

Hoffman interests me as a reliever. He's pretty effective his first time through the lineup.

[Redsland]

Hoffman interests me as a reliever. He's pretty effective his first time through the lineup.

I was at that Nationals game. Bah. Roo. Tle.

[Mitri]

Hoffman interests me as a reliever. He's pretty effective his first time through the lineup.

Yeah, I agree. He should’ve been in relief all along. And though he wasn’t completely awful as a starter those games were becoming a tax on the team. Bad juju and all that.