How Much Has Castillo Actually Improved?

[757690]

Luis Castillo's early season success was one of the major bright spots for the Reds so far in 2019. But looking at his overall numbers, outside of ERA, it seems he actually has been pitching around the same as he has been his whole career.

2019

3.70 FIP
3.75 xFIP
2.22 K/BB
0.79 HR/9

Career

4.01 FIP
3.63 xFIP
2.86 K/BB
1.21 HR/9

Basically his K/BB rate is actually worse than his career, thanks to too many BB's, while his HR/9 rate is better, which is due to getting more GB and fewer FB.

His much lower ERA seems to be due to his very low BABIP, .243, but he always has had a low BABIP, with a career .264.

Of course, he had a terrible game yesterday, so maybe that has skewed the numbers a bit, but all games count. But it looks like Castillo is due for a correction at some point this season, and may not be the true Ace we were hoping he would be at the start of this season.

[RedTeamGo!]

I am shocked you left out stats he is performing well in. Shocked.

Leads the league in h/9 with 5.7 and has a 10.7 k/9. 1.172 WHIP. 180 ERA+.

All improvements over last year.

Castillo’s one issue is he has walked way too many this year. Needs to be fixed. He clearly is extremely talented, if he gets the walks under control, which he likely will, the hand-wringing some folks are doing right now over one of the best current pitchers on planet earth will be rightfully seen as cray cray.

[757690]

I am shocked you left out stats he is performing well in. Shocked.

Leads the league in h/9 with 5.7 and has a 10.7 k/9. 1.172 WHIP. 180 ERA+.

All improvements over last year.

Castillo’s one issue is he has walked way too many this year. Needs to be fixed. He clearly is extremely talented, if he gets the walks under control, which he likely will, the hand-wringing some folks are doing right now over one of the best current pitchers on planet earth will be rightfully seen as cray cray.

I focused on the factors that are the most predictive, and reflective of his true talent. All of the numbers you provided are included in the ones I discussed.

Honest question. Why do you believe he will likely get his control under control?

[Bob Sheed]

munches popcorn

[RedTeamGo!]

I focused on the factors that are the most predictive, and reflective of his true talent. All of the numbers you provided are included in the ones I discussed.

Honest question. Why do you believe he will likely get his control under control?

Because I highly doubt he’s going to continue walking 2-3 more batters per 9 than he has done almost every season of his career including both minors and majors. And really that number is really high this year because of like 2-3 really bad starts with regard to walks.

Also, I believe k/9 is the most predictive number for future success. He is striking batters out an elite level.

[Wonderful Monds]

Man who would’ve guessed this particular guy would a start a “what if our best pitcher actually sucked” thread

[RedTeamGo!]

Also, can you please explain to me how his hr/9 is not a significant improvement?

He is leading the league in h/9 - please explain to me how that is not a significant improvement.

He is striking everyone out and no one is hitting him.

[757690]

Also, can you please explain to me how his hr/9 is not a significant improvement?

He is leading the league in h/9 - please explain to me how that is not a significant improvement.

He is striking everyone out and no one is hitting him.

I pointed he has improved his HR rate, and I explained why, fewer FB’s which is very good.

He is striking out more guys, but also walking more guys, and test ratio is what is most important.

I pointed out he is not giving up many hits, and that os something that has always been true with him.

[Patrick Bateman]

Geez guys - he’s not saying Castillo sucks - he’s questioning whether he’s really made the step up to being elite.

It’s a fair question that’s worth debating, and there’s no need to get overly defensive. There’s a reasonable point in there and if you think he’s out to lunch, debate the points with facts rather than agenda.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RedTeamGo!]

I pointed he has improved his HR rate, and I explained why, fewer FB’s which is very good.

He is striking out more guys, but also walking more guys, and test ratio is what is most important.

I pointed out he is not giving up many hits, and that os something that has always been true with him.

Maybe I read your post wrong but it seems like your whole point was that he hasn’t actually improved?

But looking at his overall numbers, outside of ERA, it seems he actually has been pitching around the same as he has been his whole career.

[757690]

Man who would’ve guessed this particular guy would a start a “what if our best pitcher actually sucked” thread

Where did I say he sucked? I’m presenting hard evidence that strongly suggests he’s still the very good pitcher he has always been, but not yet the true Ace he appeared to be early in the season.

[RedTeamGo!]

Geez guys - he’s not saying Castillo sucks - he’s questioning whether he’s really made the step up to being elite.

It’s a fair question that’s worth debating, and there’s no need to get overly defensive. There’s a reasonable point in there and if you think he’s out to lunch, debate the points with facts rather than agenda.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Guys? I am responding with facts and asking him legit questions.

[mamell]

Where did I say he sucked? I’m presenting hard evidence that strongly suggests he’s still the very good pitcher he has always been, but not yet the true Ace he appeared to be early in the season.

Never ever question what some consider conventional wisdom even IF it's not particularly wise nor conventional. You've broken the unwritten rule of stepping on someone else's toes that don't actually exist in a forum. FOR SHAME, FOR SHAME!
We (and I mean just me referring to we) demand exactly 321 Hail Mary's and a promise to never ever again question anyone else's conventional wisdom that's neither wise nor conventional..

[RedTeamGo!]

Never ever question what some consider conventional wisdom even IF it's not particularly wise nor conventional. You've broken the unwritten rule of stepping on someone else's toes that don't actually exist in a forum. FOR SHAME, FOR SHAME!
We (and I mean just me referring to we) demand exactly 321 Hail Mary's and a promise to never ever again question anyone else's conventional wisdom that's neither wise nor conventional..

Literally one poster responded to him without actually responding to the original post.

With that said, do you have anything to add to the actual conversation or nah?

[Rolando]

Literally one poster responded to him without actually responding to the original post.

With that said, do you have anything to add to the actual conversation or nah?

Ok I'll bite what do think is causing the gigantic raise in walk rate