Last offseason compared to this offseason ($ being spent)

[JFLegal]

there is an interesting dichotomy when looking at free agency in baseball last offseason compared to this. last offseason, most players were not getting anywhere near the offers they were seeking, and many had to settle for one-year contracts much lower than they were predicted to receive (such as moustakas signing with the brewers for 1 year and only $10 million, which is only one of many examples).

i still am not buying it was collusion between the owners last year not to spend big money, but i'm not sure what caused it. does anyone have a legitimate theory as to why players were not getting paid what prognosticators expected last season?

then it's a complete 180 this year as free agents are getting even more dollars than most analysts projected.

what has caused this one-year turnaround? i honestly have no idea so i was hoping some of you wise folks could help me out.

[PuffyPig]

there is an interesting dichotomy when looking at free agency in baseball last offseason compared to this. last offseason, most players were not getting anywhere near the offers they were seeking, and many had to settle for one-year contracts much lower than they were predicted to receive (such as moustakas signing with the brewers for 1 year and only $10 million, which is only one of many examples).

i still am not buying it was collusion between the owners last year not to spend big money, but i'm not sure what caused it. does anyone have a legitimate theory as to why players were not getting paid what prognosticators expected last season?

then it's a complete 180 this year as free agents are getting even more dollars than most analysts projected.

what has caused this one-year turnaround? i honestly have no idea so i was hoping some of you wise folks could help me out.

There are some very high end UFA’s available this year, that’s a big difference.


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[Rojo Rijo]

There are some very high end UFA’s available this year, that’s a big difference.


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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado were both UFAs last year.

[Alpha Zero]

I heard some talk on MLBTV that there may be a little less fear of cracking the luxury tax threshold because owners are expecting there may be some changes to the penalty structure when the new CBA is negotiated.

It seems that may have played a part in getting NY, LA, etc engaged in the FA market again, which is potentially driving up prices.

[PuffyPig]

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado were both UFAs last year.

yes, and they both got great long term contracts.

But we've got Cole, Redon, Strasburg available this year, who are arguably on a higher level. They are some of the best UFA's available in many years. That is at least part of the reason.

[DocRed]

EVERYBODY is getting more than predicted this year though. From Moustakas to Roark to Alex Avila. Almost like reverse collusion where the owners all realize a new CB is coming up and they are trying to avoid a strike or lawsuit or something.

[Rojo Rijo]

yes, and they both got great long term contracts.

But we've got Cole, Redon, Strasburg available this year, who are arguably on a higher level. They are some of the best UFA's available in many years. That is at least part of the reason.

The reason it feels that way is because Cole, Rendon, and Strasburg all ended their contracts on extremely high notes which is rare. Having the top 3 guys all involved in the World Series where Cole is the best a pitcher has looked in the post season since Bumgarner, Rendon OPS over 1.000 in the postseason and Strasburg was the WS MVP. You'll never see a trio of pending FAs increase their value like that again.

Last year the Orioles had the worst record in baseball, the Nats missed the playoffs, and the Diamondbacks missed the playoffs (Corbin was the #3 big sign). Neither Harper, Machado, or Corbin had the opportunity to showcase themselves in the playoffs and none were exactly setting the game on fire leading up to their FA.

To me it's the market, which teams are spending this year vs. last, and the ridiculous occurrence of all three performing out of their minds into a 7 game WS that is the difference.

[RedsManRick]

In a closed system like a pro sports league, supply and demand move very much in tandem. When a lot of players become FA at the same time, there are a lot of teams who need to sign FA to fill the holes created by those players becoming FA. That competition drives the prices up for the most desirable FA.

For example, if you have just one elite OF hit the market and one team with a hole & budget for an elite OF, he'll get paid a fair amount, but not crazy. But if you have one elite OF and 4 solid OF hit the market, you may have 5 teams all chasing that same elite OF, bidding up his services.

The bigger the pool of FA talent, the higher the prices for the top end talent.

[JFLegal]

EVERYBODY is getting more than predicted this year though. From Moustakas to Roark to Alex Avila. Almost like reverse collusion where the owners all realize a new CB is coming up and they are trying to avoid a strike or lawsuit or something.

this is exactly what i mean. it's such a strange one-year turnaround. and i'm not buying the argument that it's simply because this is a good free agent class and last year's was a bad free agent class. even the big-name players who eventually got their big-money deals last year had to wait much longer than usual to sign. this year, money is flying around like crazy. i wonder what has changed across the league in such a short period of time relatively-speaking.

[JFLegal]

In a closed system like a pro sports league, supply and demand move very much in tandem. When a lot of players become FA at the same time, there are a lot of teams who need to sign FA to fill the holes created by those players becoming FA. That competition drives the prices up for the most desirable FA.

For example, if you have just one elite OF hit the market and one team with a hole & budget for an elite OF, he'll get paid a fair amount, but not crazy. But if you have one elite OF and 4 solid OF hit the market, you may have 5 teams all chasing that same elite OF, bidding up his services.

The bigger the pool of FA talent, the higher the prices for the top end talent.

so it's as simple as this year's free agent class is that much better/deeper than last year's? (and as you point out, that in turn means teams have more holes to fill because there are more free agents out there.) i guess i didn't realize there were so many more quality free agents this year as opposed to last.

[RedsManRick]

so it's as simple as this year's free agent class is that much better/deeper than last year's? (and as you point out, that in turn means teams have more holes to fill because there are more free agents out there.) i guess i didn't realize there were so many more quality free agents this year as opposed to last.

Well, could be. Who were last year's best FA? ESPN has the top 5 last year as: Machado, Harper, Corbin, Brantley, and Dallas Kuechel (who didn't sign). This year's top 5 is: Rendon, Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Ryu. It's a bit more top heavy and there seems to be more quality in the 5 to 15 range as well.

That said, I'm not convinced we're actually seeing more money spent this offseason relative to player quality. The biggest difference so far is that the big deals happened much more quickly.

[allpurpose]

Maybe it's just me, but somewhere in the back of my baseball mind I'm always rooting for the highest paid FA's to just fall off the edge of the baseball world and never recover. I guess I'm partial to lower paid up and comers as opposed to the latest insane contract and since none of these brazilionaires have offered me a slice of their multi million dollar contracts I feel no obligation to root for anything but their downfall.. Once again, How many is a brazilian?

[DocRed]

Maybe it's just me, but somewhere in the back of my baseball mind I'm always rooting for the highest paid FA's to just fall off the edge of the baseball world and never recover. I guess I'm partial to lower paid up and comers as opposed to the latest insane contract and since none of these brazilionaires have offered me a slice of their multi million dollar contracts I feel no obligation to root for anything but their downfall.. Once again, How many is a brazilian?

I root for all players to fail that aren't Reds. Is that wrong?

[Kinsm]

CBA is expiring and attendance is down. If MLB wants less stress in a potential strike - spending money now is a good thing.

[757690]

Spending is definitely up, and the key is not the big names, but the role players.

This year we have:

Kevin Gausman - $9M/1 year
Kyle Gibson - $30M/3 years
Yan Gomez - $10M/2 years
Jordan Lyles - $16M/2 years
Chris Martin- $14M/2 years
Rick Porcello - $10M/1 year
Tanner Roark - $24M/2 years
Blake Treinen - $10M/1 year
Jose Peraza - $3M/1 year
Josh Lindbom - $9M/3 years
Travis d'Arnaud - $16M/2 years
Jake Diekman - $7.5M/2 years

The last two years, most of these guys wouldn't have been signed this early, and signed eventually for around $1-2M right before spring training. A few would have had to go into the season unsigned. That's the biggest change this off-season, the average players are getting paid significantly and early.