Reds bullpen, currently

[Kc61]

Based on the current forty man roster, here are a list of some of the more likely relievers -

Cessa, Dunn, Hofffman, Moreta, Sanmartin, Santillan, Sims, Warren, Wilson.

A few are starters, but maybe more likely to slide to pen.

Reds have other guys like Duarte, or NRIs who might make it, but I don’t see any names that are all that likely so far.

Some of these guys have shown pretty well so far, Santillan, Warren, for example, Moreta in the minors.

Would like to see a couple of experienced hands added, including one solid back-end guy.

[Old school 1983]

The current group actually looks better than last years to start the year as bad as that is. I’d like one more proven arm. IMO Art Warren needs to close until he shows the Reds differently. He looked great last year.

[RedTeamGo!]

I was having trouble falling asleep last night so started trying to figure out the Reds 25-man (26?) to settle my brain.

I think I have the rotation and lineup mostly figured out. I could not figure out the bullpen at all, though.

[LeatherPants]

Don't forget Buck Farmer, who is a real person allegedly.

[Mitri]

I would say the following are locks, if healthy, for OD:

Sims
Cessa
Santillan
Warren
Wilson
Moreta

The rest will be sorted with the rotation. I am guessing Hoffman will work out the bullpen barring an emergency. So that leaves only 1 spot, probably for another lefty. Sanmartin makes sense. That would mean Dunn in the rotation or IL to begin the season, with Vlad as the other backend starter.

[LeatherPants]

I would say the following are locks, if healthy, for OD:

Sims
Cessa
Santillan
Warren
Wilson
Moreta

The rest will be sorted with the rotation. I am guessing Hoffman will work out the bullpen barring an emergency. So that leaves only 1 spot, probably for another lefty. Sanmartin makes sense. That would mean Dunn in the rotation or IL to begin the season, with Vlad as the other backend starter.

I think Dunn is probably a lock for the IL to begin the season. (Assuming I'm getting my former Mariners right in my head, he's the one with the shoulder injury, right?)

[HokieRed]

I think Mitri's got the six locks. After that depends on whether we acquire one more starter, I think. If we don't, and Dunn goes to the IL, then we've got both Sanmartin and Gutierrez in the rotation; if we do sign Cueto or some other starter, then one of those two becomes the 5th starter and the other goes to the pen (or is moved). All that presupposes they have decided not to push Greene, Lodolo, or Ashcraft onto the major league staff yet--and I take the actions of the last few days to be an indicator they are not going to do that.

[mth123]

I think the final make-up of the pen is dependent on what happens in the rotation. I'm not convinced Moreta is a lock.

Will they sign Cueto or another vet? How many of Greene, Lodolo, Williamson and Ashcraft open in the big leagues? Will Dunn be healthy?

Rotation (4 Locks)
Mahle
Castillo
Minor
Vlad
Dunn???
Cueto???
Greene??
Lodolo???
Williamson???
Ashcraft???
Godley???

Bullpen (6 Locks)
Santillan
Cessa
Warren
Sims
Wilson
Hoffman
Second lefty (SanMArtin, Dunn, Diehl)
AAA Shuttle (Moreta, Hendrix, Duarte, Diaz, one of the AAA Starters)

Others like Overton, Bailey, Buck Farmer probably start in AAA

[Kc61]

If Michael Givens is still a FA, I’ll guess Reds re-sign him.

[mth123]

If Michael Givens is still a FA, I’ll guess Reds re-sign him.

That would be a solid move, but I'm done guessing in this strange off-season. The Reds haven't made one move that I expected them to make other than dealing Barnhart for scraps.

[Bourgeois Zee]

They have 8 spots to fill.

At least one of those spots will need to be filled by someone with options so that they won't lose players when they get nicked up or need a breather.

That leaves me the following six locks (assuming they aren't dealing anyone or acquiring anyone else):
Hoffman
Sims
Cessa
Wilson
Santillan (o)
Warren (o)

That means the following will fight for the last couple of roster spots, IMO:
Brandon Bailey
Coming back from TJ surgery and has enjoyed some success and has decent stuff. Helps that he can start and relieve. Hurts that he's not on the roster yet. He still has two options.

Phillip Diehl
He was an also-ran last year, but found some real success as a AAA relief arm, K'ing nearly 12/9 in more than 50 innings. That plus an elite BB rate makes me sit up and take notice. He's left-handed too. Might mean he and Sanmartin tag-team that second lefty role. One to watch, at any rate. Not on the 40-man, so that'd have to get fixed.

Zack Godley
He's been serviceable in the past. That's about as high a praise as I can muster. No options, but a known name. In previous seasons, that's often been enough to get a roster spot. Not currently on the 40-man roster.

Ben Lively
Might be the best-known of all the candidates. Typically a starter, but the Reds are flush with AAA SP candidates. With his control and stuff, might make sense to shift to the bullpen. Still has an option left. Not on the 40-man roster.

Dauri Moreta
Forgotten until he decided to just not give up any runs for months at a time, Moreta showed enough last season to be considered. He's got decent stuff, but it's not crazy-good. Forgettable, largely. But he has options, is cheap, and has been successful. With Sanmartin, one of the safest choices to make. Will certainly be depth if not chosen for Opening Day.

Conner Overton
Replacement-level last year in his first taste of the majors, Overton has options and was dominant last year as Toronto's AAA closer. Has all three options, but he's not on the 40-man roster.

Reiver Sanmartin
With the trades for Minor and Dunn (not to mention Gutierrez's emergence last season), Sanmartin is probably not going to be a starter at the major league level. But he had a good year and may be a solid second lefty out of the pen. He doesn't beat himself, but is short on stuff. Sometimes, those types do really well. Other times, not so much. He has options and is already on the 40-man. Sanmartin is probably the safest choice of the options.

Jared Solomon
I suspect Solomon has as good a shot as anyone at one of the last two bullpen spots, if only because he's on the 40-man roster, has options, and can throw it up there over triple digits. They may want to try him as a starter, but I'd get something out of him now, were it me.

A AAA starter
I could absolutely see Hunter Greene start the year as a reliever to limit his innings and allow him to learn on the job. (In fact, I'd like to see it happen.) Graham Ashcraft could as well. Lodolo needs innings, or I could see him too. They might well convert Williamson or Riley O'Brien too. Any of them could be used in that role-- and thrive.

[UKWhoDey]

I actually feel a little better about the bullpen looking at these lists. Sims, Cessa, Wilson, Warren, Santillan....I can live with that.

The only major question mark I have with the roster is who's the backup catcher going to be? I'm sure its been discussed on here and I missed it. On a semi related note Eric Haas was being interviewed on XM MLB radio, and he spent a lot of it singing Tucker's praises on what he's teaching him and working with him on. Gonna miss that dude. Loved me some Tuck.

[mth123]

I actually feel a little better about the bullpen looking at these lists. Sims, Cessa, Wilson, Warren, Santillan....I can live with that.

The only major question mark I have with the roster is who's the backup catcher going to be? I'm sure its been discussed on here and I missed it. On a semi related note Eric Haas was being interviewed on XM MLB radio, and he spent a lot of it singing Tucker's praises on what he's teaching him and working with him on. Gonna miss that dude. Loved me some Tuck.

I understand why if you like Sims. I'm a huge skeptic on Sims and Wilson and have my fingers crossed on Warren. I think Santillan is the closer and Cessa the fireman at the moment. I'm hopeful Warren is for real. Otherwise, I think Hoffman is the best of the rest and I'm pretty meh on him.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The only major question mark I have with the roster is who's the backup catcher going to be?

I'm hopeful it's Farmer.

He hits LH really well and can also be a backup SS if need be.

Like that combination, honestly, especially because he has a near league-average bat. If he can wRC+ within 10% of league average overall and continue to mash LH, he'll be remarkably valuable in both of those roles.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I understand why if you like Sims. I'm a huge skeptic on Sims and Wilson and have my fingers crossed on Warren. I think Santillan is the closer and Cessa the fireman at the moment. I'm hopeful Warren is for real. Otherwise, I think Hoffman is the best of the rest and I'm pretty meh on him.

Interesting.

It's not necessarily Sims I like, but the combination of Sims, Wilson, and Hoffman (who looked like a nice little relief arm in limited innings last year) in the roles they're in.

They're the fourth, fifth, and sixth relievers on the team-- and maybe further down than that.