Game Thread 9-17 - if anyone cares

[Ltlabner]

But then perhaps you'll be able to explain why the GM in eight months has done nothing neither to rectify the situation nor to lay the groundwork for future deals.

Because those 8 months were during the season. A time when trades are historically harder to make and "more expensive". The number of available impact players are less and the price is astronomically more than during the offseason.

And I don't agree with your premise that he's done "nothing" so I woln't attempt to argue that with you.

[traderumor]

I've heard that a number of times, yet I don't really see how the Reds have outperformed expectations. The board collectively felt the Reds would finish the season with around 77-78 Wins (yes, I took every prediction from gonelong's thread and averaged them). I felt they'd finish with 78 Wins based on projected Run Diff when applied to Pythag. If the Reds continue along their current path, that's going to be about spot-on.

At the ASB, the Reds had a real opportunity to make up some serious Run Diff ground while the Cards were also overperforming their Pythag and, thus, projected to regress in the second half. At that point, Krivsky had an obvious charge- improve the Run Differential. Instead, he chose to impact it negatively while attempting to "fix" the bullpen.

Problem is that even if he'd have fixed the pen, it didn't project to produce the Run Diff impact necessary to catch a team that was nigh-destined to play no better than .500 ball for the rest of the year. The Reds had a huge window of opportunity and entirely squandered it- along with many of their remaining resources. There was a chance for the Reds to actually outperform their expectations but it went up in smoke and virtually every move after that was an effort to lessen the damage.

Thank you for that fine forensic analysis, Mr. Bodene.

[SteelSD]

Not having AK and Lopez here to work the counts certinally hurts the offensive dynamic. No argument there from me.

But I don't think AK/Lopez not being here has anything to do with Ross & Freel regressing to the mean, Jr starting to show his age (apparently) and Philips being....well...Philips. It has nothing to do with Hatteburg being 36 and cooling off from a carear year. I'd say it also has nothing to do with pitchers adjusting to EE.

I guess my point is that this offensive collapse has a number of reasons and can't soley be laid at the simplistic feet of "the trade".

I don't think anyone has attempted to lay the current offensive issues "solely" at the feet of that trade. But it did end up impacting the team more than folks thought at the time of the trade. And one reason for that was, as you cited, that the Reds were running out a number of players who were most likely going to regress to the mean in the second half. But that's another "effect" component of the deal- when the only way to effectively minimize the impact of losing two above-average offensive players is to rely on the continued overachievement of others, that's a conceptual issue that does tie in to the trade we're talking about.

[SteelSD]

Thank you for that fine forensic analysis, Mr. Bodene.

I'd hope that's a statement of agreement because if you couldn't see where the opportunity was at that point in the season, there's really not a lot more I can say.

[Chip R]

The Reds biggest problem has been an unwillingness to burn it to the ground for the last five years(unlike Florida ). The problem they have now is that there is almost nothing to fuel the fire. A bleak forecast indeed.

The difference is that in Miami, if they do that, no one cares because no one really cares when they have a decent record. Ownership is looking for any place to move the team. Gutting the team, building it up, it doesn't matter in South Florida. Try that here and it will be a different story all together. Plus, in Miami, they actually have people working for the Marlins who can evaluate young talent and develop it. Just burning it to the ground doesn't mean something will rise from it.

[Heath]

I don't think in the history of this franchise has there ever been a time of burning it down and rebuilding it. There are too many expectations of the community and the pride of history to leave a carcass.

The Reds are teetering on the fine line of rebuilding and trying to contend all at the same time.

[Red in Chicago]

Chris Denorfia's value to the team is saving runs using his legs and glove in center field, saving runs that we're allowing because our current regular center fielder has been the worst defensive center fielder in baseball for two years now.

I'd sure like to know what type of defensive system the Reds are using, if they even have one at all. I really don't think most people understand the value of a center fielder who can save 10-15 runs a year over even an average center fielder, much less save 30 runs a year over a very poor center fielder.

saving 10 - 15 runs a year translates into approximately how many wins? just curious if an assumption can be made...

[Heath]

Nope, overall he just didn't help the long term situation and maybe with RCast and "win now" it was not possible but I have yet to see a GM accurately assess the state of the organization and act accordingly. WK started out fine until he could not resist win now and the disaster of a trade that followed.

The team was in a pennant race in an overall down year in the NL. There might have more complaints that no trade was made.

I'd like to know what trades could have worked. I've never seen any other suggestions that could have been made to improve the club .

[WVRedsFan]

Was this a game thread?

I'm not criticizing, you understand. It's just that bad.

As most everyone knows, I agree with Steel and Cyclone about "the trade." We'll still be debating it next year at this time and probably for many years. It, IMHO, is the worst trade by a Reds GM since 1965 (and you all know what happened then). But, there were many poor moves by Krivsky this season. Cormier is one. What a waste and even giving him an extention before seeing him pitch. And you can name the other acquisitions for players to be named later too. Wise, Hollandsworth, Johnson, Kim, Michalak, and Hopper. How have they helped?

I'm not advocating firing Krivsky just yet, but the good (Arroyo, Lohse, ED Eddie, Phillips, etc) does not measure up to the bad moves. If he was panicking and throwing stuff at the wall to see if it will stick, the middle of a pennant race was not the time to do it. I question his judgement and his knowledge of baseball players. That also applies to extending a manager who has won at nothing in his career and continues to show why. He'd better have a monster off-season and 2007 or RCast will be looking at someone else.

[Cyclone792]

saving 10 - 15 runs a year translates into approximately how many wins? just curious if an assumption can be made...

The difference between Denorfia and an average defensive center fielder would be a net gain of about one win due to center field defense. The difference between Denorfia and a Griffey in center field would be a net gain of nearly three wins due to center field defense.

[Chip R]

I don't think in the history of this franchise has there ever been a time of burning it down and rebuilding it. There are too many expectations of the community and the pride of history to leave a carcass.

The Reds are teetering on the fine line of rebuilding and trying to contend all at the same time.

Are you saying that you can't rebuild and contend at the same time?

[Heath]

Are you saying that you can't rebuild and contend at the same time?

I think it can be done, its just an effort that takes time and patience and aggressiveness all at the same time.

Kinda like chewing gum, bouncing a basketball, and snapping your fingers all at the same time.

[Heath]

That also applies to extending a manager who has won at nothing in his career and continues to show why. He'd better have a monster off-season and 2007 or RCast will be looking at someone else.

I'll agree that the Narron extension was about a bonehead move as one could make, I can understand why he did it, but the Reds were winning in SPITE of Narron.

[redsfanmia]

I don't think in the history of this franchise has there ever been a time of burning it down and rebuilding it. There are too many expectations of the community and the pride of history to leave a carcass.

The Reds are teetering on the fine line of rebuilding and trying to contend all at the same time.

Does 1982 and 1983 ring a bell?

[RedFanAlways1966]

I've heard that a number of times, yet I don't really see how the Reds have outperformed expectations. The board collectively felt the Reds would finish the season with around 77-78 Wins (yes, I took every prediction from gonelong's thread and averaged them). I felt they'd finish with 78 Wins based on projected Run Diff when applied to Pythag. If the Reds continue along their current path, that's going to be about spot-on.

Steel... although I was not clear on it, I meant the so-called experts on MLB (writers, analysts, etc). It would make sense that REDS diehards, which most of us are, would tend to lean towards a better season than the so-called experts. Might prove, when it all ends this year, that RZ is better than the so-called experts (despite some that might be a bit over-optimistic!).

Anyhow it can be said that most experts picked 5th or 6th place in the NL Central for the REDS. I didn't read all the predictions, so there may be some that did not (some of you guys read a lot more things than myself). I checked the records of all teams that finished 5th and 6th in the NL Central since 2003. Those teams and their respective records were:

2003: REDS 69-93 ; Brewers 68-94.
2004: Pirates 72-89 ; Brewers 67-94.
2005: REDS 73-89 ; Pirates 67-95.
>> The average record of the above six teams is 69-92.

Of course there is no way to figure these things or trust the so-called experts. I for one trust the opinions of some here more than any of those so-called experts. And there are so many variables that differ from year-to-year that it is far from scientific.

I guess a REDS & BENGALS fan like me (been lots of bad times in those years) is always lookin' for the bright side. Lord help me!