Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

[757690]

One thing to remember when evaluating the Reds 2020:

They played exclusively in the Central division, mostly the NL Central. Every Central team was eliminated in the first round of the postseason.

[Kc61]

One thing to remember when evaluating the Reds 2020:

They played exclusively in the Central division, mostly the NL Central. Every Central team was eliminated in the first round of the postseason.

Two things to remember when evaluating the Reds 2020:

They played in the NL Central, the only division in baseball with four playoff teams.

And they played exclusively within both Central divisions, the only scheduling “pod” with 7 playoff teams.

[M2]

I think this is all true.

And if they are still acting in good faith towards building a winner, they'll make further changes to address what they got wrong. It won't just be replacing Galvis and Bauer with new rentals. They need to change the mix and it may mean somebody major has to go to make room and free up the funds. I repeat my nomination of Castellanos.

How much money they'll have revolves around the Bauer and Castellanos' decisions. That's $33.5M. In a perfect world Bauer stays and Castellanos leaves, though I'm not counting on a perfect world.. I think they need to make a decision on Senzel. He turns 26 next year and he must pay off if they plan around having him be a lineup regular. Anyway, I don't think it's so much about making a seemingly major move. I'd like to see them build a more complete team in the field (more BA, defense and speed). Joey Wendle kind of interests me. They overloaded on over-the-wall power.

[757690]

Two things to remember when evaluating the Reds 2020:

They played in the NL Central, the only division in baseball with four playoff teams.

And they played exclusively within both Central divisions, the only scheduling “pod” with 7 playoff teams.

The “playoffs”.

The reason why is because every team was weak, so most teams were around .500. The teams in divisions with dominant teams were less likely to make the playoffs.

[Kc61]

The “playoffs”.

The reason why is because every team was weak, so most teams were around .500. The teams in divisions with dominant teams were less likely to make the playoffs.

Four of the seven Central playoff teams were well above .500.

And if some Central W-L records were lower, well, these seven playoff teams were repeatedly playing each other. In Reds’ stretch drive, five of their last six series were against playoff teams.

It’s easier to run up “dominant” records when you don’t play many good teams.

[757690]

Four of the seven Central playoff teams were well above .500.

And if some of the Central W-L records were lower, it’s because these seven playoff teams were repeatedly playing each other. In Reds’ stretch drive, five of their last six series were against playoff teams.

It’s easier to run up “dominant” records when you don’t play many good teams.

The real point is that because teams only played within their division, we will never know what the talent level is for any team. That is one of the many factors that make it nearly impossible to make good decisions using 2020 data.

[Kc61]

The real point is that because teams only played within their division, we will never know what the talent level is for any team. That is one of the many factors that make it nearly impossible to make good decisions using 2020 data.

Your first post suggested that the Central teams were weaker because they lost in the playoffs. Now you’re saying we’ll “never know” how good the talent is.

Reds know where they are. The played about .500 ball and their pythag was 0. They know their strengths and weaknesses. They can plan for next year.

[mth123]

Bauer was magnificent this season. Unequivocally. Cy Young.

But Reds were 6-5 in the games Trevor pitched this regular season.

I’d love to keep him. But if necessary the Reds - with some tweaking and a little better luck - can do as well or improve in W-L with a different good pitcher.

I can do funny extrapolated math as well as anyone who is claiming that the 2 games over .500 against the Central Divisions equates to an 84 win season over a full schedule. So over a full season, 6-5 would be closer to say 16 and 13. Replace him with somebody who'd be more like 10 and 19 with this offense and that takes you from 84 wins to 78. Of course they could fix the offense and defense and a lesser pitcher could still be 6-5 or 16 and 13.

Bauer was probably the best pitcher in baseball this year and went 6-5. Doesn't that tell you all you need to know about the team that was put around him? Changes are needed.

[Kc61]

I can do funny extrapolated math as well as anyone who is claiming that the 2 games over .500 against the Central Divisions equates to an 84 win season over a full schedule. So over a full season, 6-5 would be closer to say 16 and 13. Replace him with somebody who'd be more like 10 and 19 with this offense and that takes you from 84 wins to 78. Of course they could fix the offense and defense and a lesser pitcher could still be 6-5 or 16 and 13.

Bauer was probably the best pitcher in baseball this year and went 6-5. Doesn't that tell you all you need to know about the team that was put around him? Changes are needed.

Just for the record, Bauer was not 6-5. The team was 6-5 in his games.

Beyond that, I believe Reds underperformed offensively. With a few modest changes they should be a true playoff contender. And while it would be optimal to have Bauer, with a solid replacement they can still be a true playoff contender.

[mth123]

Just for the record, Bauer was not 6-5. The team was 6-5 in his games.

Beyond that, I believe Reds underperformed offensively. With a few modest changes they should be a true playoff contender. And while it would be optimal to have Bauer, with a solid replacement they can still be a true playoff contender.

I'm asking for a few modest changes. I want a ss and to replace Castallanos and use his freed up salary for a new all around player who has a different skillset and can fit defensively. That opens LF for Winker and DH for the no longer acceptable defender Joey Votto. The corner infielder who mans second would be able to go back to a corner where his defense is actually pretty good. I think they could replace Bauer from within if they'd do that, but I'd prefer to dump Miley and put his money toward somebody better.

[757690]

Your first post suggested that the Central teams were weaker because they lost in the playoffs. Now you’re saying we’ll “never know” how good the talent is.

Reds know where they are. The played about .500 ball and their pythag was 0. They know their strengths and weaknesses. They can plan for next year.

Well, yeah, but then you presented a good counter argument and I had to change my argument

[Todd Gack]

Two things to remember when evaluating the Reds 2020:

They played in the NL Central, the only division in baseball with four playoff teams.

And they played exclusively within both Central divisions, the only scheduling “pod” with 7 playoff teams.

There is only 1 other division that had less wins tha the NL Central in the playoffs.

The AL Central.

The Centrals went a combined 1-12. Are you really talking about how "tough" they were?

[RedsManRick]

One man's take on the Reds in recent seasons:

I wanted the Reds to start operating like a franchise that's trying and to abandon a rebuild that was headed nowhere. That's exactly what they did. They turned the corpse of Homer Bailey into Trevor Bauer. That's close to a miracle. In two seasons they went from 95 losses with a -123 run differential to a winning record with an even run differential. I don't expect them to get everything right. I expect them make a good faith effort, and they have. What they've done is churn the roster to put themselves in a much better position than they were at this time two years ago. If you had a lick of sense, you actually got to enjoy some Reds baseball this year.

They've got more to do and we can speculate on why Dick Williams won't be the one doing it, but right now I ain't angry. I don't blame Dick Williams for anything and I don't think he deserves effusive praise. I don't care how bad his initial plan was, he was involved at some level in scrapping it for a better model. I'm looking forward to the Reds making more moves this winter and heading into a season where making the playoffs and advancing should be the goal.

This. While I would absolutely have loved a season in which the Reds were a blind squirrel who found a nut of a championship, what I've wanted most from the Reds has been for them to stop being the blind squirrel.

I wanted an organization that did not complicate their market-size disadvantage by being a decade or more behind the times operationally. I wanted an organization with both a sense of direction and evidence of growth in that direction. The Williams' led Reds organization met those wishes.

We can nitpick 100 different decisions. We can lament draft picks made and not made. We can imagine a world where Steel or I would have made a trade or FA signing that Williams couldn't pull off or kept our powder dry for a better opportunity. But in my adult lifetime, from Bowden to O'Brien/Krivsky to Jocketty, it always felt like an organization that was scrapping around trying to make the best of a bad situation, trying to out-do peers by doing the same thing as them, only with fewer resources. Occasionally, it would come together for a brief stretch and we'd compete. But it never felt like we had a plan that was being executed and which was working.

I would have liked the Williams plan to work more quickly. I desperately wish their was a plan on the position player side that matched the pitching. But, as a fan, I was more optimistic about the team's long-term chances of competing year in and year out under Williams than at any other point in my adult life -- that includes the 2010-13 Jocketty window. And that's because, as the Rays have demonstrated, if you can develop talent, you can always compete. That's the great thing about the structure of baseball; the rosters are too big, the playing time spread too thin, and the health of pitchers too tenuous for any team to lock up the championship. It's always an open competition. And if you can develop talent, especially pitching, you can compete. I felt (and still feel) like we're closer to that perpetually open window than at any time in my life.

I hope the leadership that takes Williams' place is able to sustain and build on that.

[757690]

I would have liked the Williams plan to work more quickly. I desperately wish their was a plan on the position player side that matched the pitching. But, as a fan, I was more optimistic about the team's long-term chances of competing year in and year out under Williams than at any other point in my adult life -- that includes the 2010-13 Jocketty window. And that's because, as the Rays have demonstrated, if you can develop talent, you can always compete. That's the great thing about the structure of baseball; the rosters are too big, the playing time spread too thin, and the health of pitchers too tenuous for any team to lock up the championship. It's always an open competition. And if you can develop talent, especially pitching, you can compete. I felt (and still feel) like we're closer to that perpetually open window than at any time in my life.

I hope the leadership that takes Williams' place is able to sustain and build on that.

What talent has the Reds developed under Williams’ leadership?

The 2020 roster contains one 2 players drafted or signed during his reign as GM: Senzel and Garcia. If you count players drafted or signed before that, that developed while he was GM, you can count Winker, Lorenzen, both Stephensons, Aquino, Mahle and Ervin.

The Reds farm system is rated as one of the weakest in MLB right now.

I am not seeing any comparison to the talent that the Ray’s or any other winning team has developed.

One can argue that Williams that moved the team forward in terms of philosophy, but I don’t see any argument for that paying off in terms of developing talent. At least not yet.

[Wonderful Monds]

This. While I would absolutely have loved a season in which the Reds were a blind squirrel who found a nut of a championship, what I've wanted most from the Reds has been for them to stop being the blind squirrel.

I wanted an organization that did not complicate their market-size disadvantage by being a decade or more behind the times operationally. I wanted an organization with both a sense of direction and evidence of growth in that direction. The Williams' led Reds organization met those wishes.

We can nitpick 100 different decisions. We can lament draft picks made and not made. We can imagine a world where Steel or I would have made a trade or FA signing that Williams couldn't pull off or kept our powder dry for a better opportunity. But in my adult lifetime, from Bowden to O'Brien/Krivsky to Jocketty, it always felt like an organization that was scrapping around trying to make the best of a bad situation, trying to out-do peers by doing the same thing as them, only with fewer resources. Occasionally, it would come together for a brief stretch and we'd compete. But it never felt like we had a plan that was being executed and which was working.

I would have liked the Williams plan to work more quickly. I desperately wish their was a plan on the position player side that matched the pitching. But, as a fan, I was more optimistic about the team's long-term chances of competing year in and year out under Williams than at any other point in my adult life -- that includes the 2010-13 Jocketty window. And that's because, as the Rays have demonstrated, if you can develop talent, you can always compete. That's the great thing about the structure of baseball; the rosters are too big, the playing time spread too thin, and the health of pitchers too tenuous for any team to lock up the championship. It's always an open competition. And if you can develop talent, especially pitching, you can compete. I felt (and still feel) like we're closer to that perpetually open window than at any time in my life.

I hope the leadership that takes Williams' place is able to sustain and build on that.

Just to zero in on one part of this - the Reds are still pretty bad at developing talent though, and I don’t see anything Williams has done to address that. Our most promising player acquired through his tanking efforts is Nick Senzel, who will be 26 next year and still hasn’t been able to be an average major leaguer.