COVID-19, Part VIII - heading into flu season

[Redhook]

Your wish is The Rona’s command:

Falcons CB A.J. Terrell tests positive for COVID-19, placed on reserve list

https://www.nfl.com/news/falcons-cb-...n-reserve-list

Dang, I jinxed it. The first case. Personally, I thought this football season was going to be a mess. So many players and close contact. How this is the first case when they’re testing around 3,200 people a week is surprising to me.

[757690]

So answer why some countries with a light touch approach are far more successful than many with strict mandates. Account for it instead of waving it away with jokes or racist assumptions.

That isn’t happening. There are zero examples of this. And if you bring up Sweden one more freaking time, just go back to what I posted earlier that proves you wrong.

But more importantly, what you are doing is a logical fallacy. You are trying to point to an anomaly (that doesn’t even exist) and saying it proves a point about the pandemic and disease as a whole.

It’s like pointing to one baseball player during the steroid era who didn’t hit a lot of HR’s and saying “see, steroids don’t work.”

[Falls City Beer]

That isn’t happening. There are zero examples of this. And if you bring up Sweden one more freaking time, just go back to what I posted earlier that proves you wrong.

There are examples. And you don’t get to cherry-pick your facts. You either contend with them or you don’t. But Japan is another light touch country. South Korea—though they did contact tracing. The problem with naming a bunch of other non-lockdown countries is that there simply weren’t many to not have a lockdown.

[757690]

There are examples. And you don’t get to cherry-pick your facts. You either contend with them or you don’t. But Japan is another light touch country. South Korea—though they did contact tracing. The problem with naming a bunch of other non-lockdown countries is that there simply weren’t many to not have a lockdown.

You said “light touch approach.” That is a very vague term. Japan and South Korea did not have a “light touch approach” they took the virus very seriously from the beginning.

But again, even if there are a handful of countries that are anomalies, that doesn’t tells much. What informs us best is looking at the world as a whole, and all the data and drawing conclusions from all the data. Using cherry picked data is a logical fallacy and a fool’s errand. It’s so absurd that you think I am the one cherry picking.

[Falls City Beer]

You said “light touch approach.” That is a very vague term. Japan and South Korea did not have a “light touch approach” they took the virus very seriously from the beginning.

But again, even if there are a handful of countries that are anomalies, that doesn’t tells much. What informs us best is looking at the world as a whole, and all the data and drawing conclusions from all the data. Using cherry picked data is a logical fallacy and a fool’s errand. It’s so absurd that you think I am the one cherry picking.

I’m not cherry picking. I’m asking people to explain why there are wide variations in both spread and deaths between countries, especially when some countries have imposed severe draconian measures (Spain, Germany, France, Italy), yet continue to see a huge surge in cases, and other countries have imposed very minor restrictions (Japan, Taiwan, Sweden, South Korea) and seen a very minimal uptick in cases.

Your answer of “race” just doesn’t cut it.

[757690]

I’m not cherry picking. I’m asking people to explain why there are wide variations in both spread and deaths between countries, especially when some countries have imposed severe draconian measures (Spain, Germany, France, Italy), yet continue to see a huge surge in cases, and other countries have imposed very minor restrictions (Japan, Taiwan, Sweden, South Korea) and seen a very minimal uptick in cases.

Your answer of “race” just doesn’t cut it.

I never spoke of race so please shut the **** up with that nonsense.

And the question you asked is the very definition of cherry picking. If you can’t even see that, there is no hope.

[Falls City Beer]

I never spoke of race so please shut the **** up with that nonsense.

And the question you asked is the very definition of cherry picking. If you can’t even see that, there is no hope.

You are inventing a definition of cherry-picking that doesn’t exist. It’s a question thousands of scientists and policymakers will be working to answer day and night for years.

If I had said, “No lockdown works better than lockdown“ and trotted those examples out as evidence, then yeah, that would be cherry-picking. All I’m asking is why are we seeing examples of failed lockdowns and successful non-lockdowns. Any sane person will want to know the answer to that question.

[westofyou]

It’s like pointing to one baseball player during the steroid era who didn’t hit a lot of HR’s and saying “see, steroids don’t work.”

The Hal Morris conundrum

[SteelSD]

That isn’t happening. There are zero examples of this. And if you bring up Sweden one more freaking time...

I told you...

3) But SWEDEN- Ingen flockimmunitet ännu, men vi mår bra. Inget att se här ... snälla ignorera dödsfallet.

All we need is a quick mask-bashing for the trifecta.

[Falls City Beer]

So since you want to ignore Sweden, Japan, and South Korea for not imposing a lockdown. Then explain why Spain, with strict lockdowns, is having a worse rebound in cases than the rest of Europe?

I promise you that epidemiologists are working day and night to understand these “anomalies” you guys keep waving away. This isn’t baseball. It’s not statistical noise. There’s a cause. We don’t understand it yet.

[SteelSD]

So since you want to ignore Sweden, Japan, and South Korea for not imposing a lockdown. Then explain why Spain, with strict lockdowns, is having a worse rebound in cases than the rest of Europe?

I promise you that epidemiologists are working day and night to understand these “anomalies” you guys keep waving away. This isn’t baseball. It’s not statistical noise. There’s a cause. We don’t understand it yet.

Then start doing some basic research. It appears that Spain's lockdown ended in June and experts point to a relaxation of rules to be a key factor pushing a second wave (hmn...that sounds familiar...). Madrid, in particular, is reported to be a complete mess.

August 20th BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53832981

September 9th Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/6a5e61f5-...d-98f1dfa107ad

September 27th The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...wn-coronavirus

Maybe the answer to why Spain is having a worse rebound than the rest of Europe is that Spain acted and is acting like the United States?

[Falls City Beer]

Then start doing some basic research. It appears that Spain's lockdown ended in June and experts point to a relaxation of rules to be a key factor pushing a second wave (hmn...that sounds familiar...). Madrid, in particular, is reported to be a complete mess.

August 20th BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53832981

September 9th Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/6a5e61f5-...d-98f1dfa107ad

September 27th The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...wn-coronavirus

Maybe the answer to why Spain is having a worse rebound than the rest of Europe is that Spain acted and is acting like the United States?

Most of Europe is acting like Spain. Everyone is relaxing restrictions. Why didn’t the draconian lockdown in Spain lead to manageable containment as was promised?

The answer is you don’t have an answer. It’s a disease we don’t understand, so deal with uncertainty.

[SteelSD]

Most of Europe is acting like Spain. Everyone is relaxing restrictions. Why didn’t the draconian lockdown in Spain lead to manageable containment as was promised?

The answer is you don’t have an answer. It’s a disease we don’t understand, so deal with uncertainty.

I don't need to have an answer. I gave you some freakin' articles that include information you might find interesting should you actually read them. That's certainly preferable to what you're currently doing, which is traipsing around the thread acting as if ignorance qualifies as enlightenment and that "uncertainty" is a building block of a solution.

It's painfully obvious that your game is that you have no game.

[Boston Red]

Wait, SeaRay liked a post. I thought....

[757690]

So since you want to ignore Sweden, Japan, and South Korea for not imposing a lockdown. Then explain why Spain, with strict lockdowns, is having a worse rebound in cases than the rest of Europe?

I promise you that epidemiologists are working day and night to understand these “anomalies” you guys keep waving away. This isn’t baseball. It’s not statistical noise. There’s a cause. We don’t understand it yet.

Stop. Please stop with this nonsense.

I am sure experts are looking into every area, how they responded to this pandemic, and what the results were. However, whatever they find about the countries you listed will not change the fact that overall, stricter, more complete lockdowns had better results in preventing cases and deaths that looser lockdowns. The lockdowns worked at saving lives and saving economies. The evidence is overwhelming on this.

And lets be clear. Every country, even Sweden, had some form of a lockdown.