That's an interesting question, honestly.Originally Posted by krazzy
I think it depends completely on whether the Reds are going to be okay with moving EDLC, Encarnacion-Strand, and Matt McLain (among others) to the major league level relatively early.
Steer has a position that's been pretty much handed to him. He has to perform, of course, but he's got that spot already. EDLC doesn't have as open a position, especially considering Cincinnati traded for Newman and wants to look at Barrero as well. More and more, I'm thinking the Reds' plan (such as it is) will be to start De La Cruz in Chattanooga instead of Louisville. They have two former major league SS in Louisville now (Reynolds and Richie Martin)-- and signed/ kept both when they didn't have to.
I could see Krall and company thinking they're being next-level smart in staggering McLain (AAA), EDLC (AA), Marte (Hi-A), and Arroyo (lo-A) for half a season with the hopes that they might put up massive numbers and/or fix their issues against lesser competition. Of course, that goes against just about everything the Rays and Guardians do in development, but that's par for the course, right?
Might be smart to stagger them a little bit so they all don’t become FA the same year. Makes it easier to move guys and fill holes if the Reds are going to do a churn and burn style of building moving forward.
Revering4Blue (01-29-2023)
The player (and his performance) informs the franchise when he's ready, not the other way around. (Well, not the other way around for good franchises, at any rate.)
Beyond that, it's really bad planning to stagger your best prospects-- unless the franchise is more concerned with money than with competing. If I'm an owner, I want my best players playing together, thereby increading the competitiveness and likelihood to win championships.
I would guess DLC starts the season in Louisville but Chattanooga wouldn’t shock me. I think the earliest he would be brought up to the Reds is the all star break. Can’t risk him finishing in the top 2-3 (can’t remember which) of the ROY voting. Can’t lose a year of control for nothing. If Barrero fails to show significant improvement, I think McLain would get the first shot.
Why can't they risk having his finish in the top 2-3 in ROY voting?
Don't they get an extra pick out of that?
It’s hard to bring up four guys who are “ready” and who all play the same position. Somebody’s (plural) got to learn new positions and the minors are the place to learn.
I know everyone thinks that SS should just be handed to EDLC, but he can be just as valuable to the team at another position. Some have suggested Marte in RF. I’m for that, but the move needs to be made sooner rather than later. I really see McLain in a super-sub role (2B/SS/OF). Arroyo is the best defender of the four guys at SS, but he is still young and it’s unclear how his bat will play out. He could end up a Gold Glove SS with an average bat, or a weak hitting defensive SS.
I would go with best defense first, and sort out the hitting in other positions. EDLC may be the best defensive option for the next two years, but Arroyo may become the better option in the third year. Defense helps the pitching.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
Good franchises. Like the Cubs when they won the series in 2016? It might be smart to stagger a guy or two so there aren’t gaping holes popping up certain years. If done strategically and in moderation, it’s not a bad strategy. If it’s done to the extreme detriment of the team and players it is.
Not unless he is up early enough to count as a whole year if service time. Take this year as an example. Adley Rutschman finished 2nd, the Orioles lose a year of control but don’t get draft pick compensation because he came up too late.
The Cubs kept Kris Bryant back one week. He, Soler, Schwarber, and Russell all came up in 2015.
Contreras, Edwards, and Almora came up in 2016.
Point was holding a guy back isn’t going to hurt a thing depending on the timing of it. None of these guys are sure bets to be ready to go on the MLB level opening day. If they can stagger the FA years a bit I have no issues with it so long as that ends doesn’t supersede player development or team building
Revering4Blue (01-29-2023)
Delaying Bryant's free agency could well have cost the Cubs games they needed. It didn't in that case. But it absolutely cost them good faith with the Bryant camp-- he said as much then and as he became a free agent. If the Cubs play it correctly, I'm not sure Bryant leaves for Colorado. Earlier in that same time period, Chicago brought up Rizzo despite being in the process of losing 101 games and having their only All-Star at the position. It's probably not a coincidence that Rizzi signed a team-friendly deal to delay free agency and Bryant did not.
Holding back prospects who are ready is bad for wins and losses.
Personally, I'd rather my team wins.
Others seem to want them to be fiscally conservative first, and maybe win later...
Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 01-29-2023 at 05:48 PM.
LeatherPants (02-01-2023)
I want my team to win too. And winning in the long run within your budget is part of that. Do you really think staggering the start times of a guy or two during this season will amount to a hill of beans? Likely not. That being the case, it’s wise to consider the longer term consequences to prevent issues of guys possibly leaving when it does matter
If the Reds want to win before the Greene-Lodolo window closes, they need at least 3 of EDLC, Marte, Steer, Barrero, McLain and CES come up and start producing like above average big league bats this year. (This assumes Greene and Lodolo can stay healthy and reproduce what they did in August and September over a full season, Ashcraft can stay healthy and productive, they can get full productive seasons from here on out of India, Stephenson and Fraley and that they are willing to spend some money to address the other holes that become more apparent after we see how this shakes out).
MY assessment of all of this actually happening is somewhere between having a winning lotto ticket and pigs actually flying. If more than 3 of those guys can establish themselves before the Reds start looking to churn the pitching they have (I'm guessing after the 2025 season) the chances go up, but I think that is an even longer shot.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
We disagree.
I don't give two farts in the wind about the perceived budget ownership claims we have to have. It's fake.
We also disagree about staggering prospects in order to control them longer and pay them less. It's bad business that causes hard feelings and can lead directly to losses.
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