Doc sez Krivsky FIRED!

[jojo]

While Jocketty can boast a strong resume, his hire suggests several questions:

1. Why then was he forced out of St Louis?

2. If presumably he wasn't the answer in St Louis any longer, why is he the obvious answer in Cincy?

It seems to me the same forces driving the restructuring in St Louis (mostly payroll/revenue driven) are present in Ohio in spades as well.

[Falls City Beer]

While Jocketty can boast a strong resume, his hire suggests several questions:

1. Why then was he forced out of St Louis?

2. If presumably he wasn't the answer in St Louis any longer, why is he the obvious answer in Cincy?

It seems to me the same forces driving the restructuring in St Louis (mostly payroll/revenue driven) are present in Ohio in spades as well.

In case you didn't notice, Wayne left Walt with a team *this* close to the pennant.

[REDREAD]

So we should just take it on blind faith that because Walt won a world championship in StL he can do the same here?

There needs to be some middle ground. I don't know if Jocketty will be the savior or not.

On the other hand, the organization will survive without Wayne. Cast didn't alieanate every team in baseball, the farm system won't evaporate overnight without Wayne's processes, etc.

I can understand that people that liked Wayne are dealing with grief over Wayne's surprised firing, but they are exaggerating his contributions and relevance. I don't recall anyone claiming that we can print up World Series tickets now that Walt is here.

In fact, I see most of Wayne's critics clearly acknowledging the good he did. The problem is that some of Wayne's supporters ignore the damage he also did to this franchise. They forget that some of Wayne's "wins" have ended up being Fool's Gold. They also forget all the blatantly bad moves and money he wasted. IMO, they way overestimate Wayne's contribution to developing prospects he inherited. I'm still waiting to hear what great changes Wayne instituted in the farm system beyond undoing DaO's stupid "one size fits all" rules (which any incoming GM would've immediately fixed)

[Jpup]

Here's what a survey of the PBP-based defensive metrics thought of second base in '07:

UZR	Dewan	PMR	Justin
Ellis	Hill	BP	Utley
Utley	Utley	Utley	BP
Hudson	Hudson	Hudson	Ellis
Cano	Ellis 	Cano	Hill
Hill 	Cano	Kinsler	Kinsler
Giles	Matsui	Ellis	Polanco
?	BP	Hill	Hudson

When considering how best to compare systems (they aren't all created equal), I'd weight them something like this: UZR=45%; Dewan's +/-: 25%; PMR: 20%; Justin's translations: 10%.

Brandon is a plus defender. I'd stop short of labeling him an elite one relative to his peers at second.

defensive metrics have little to no value IMO. I believe you can tell a defenders ability with your own eyes. Cano is not anything, but about average at second base. He will be an outfielder or at 1st before his day is done.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I didn't realize we had this many Krivsky fans until he was let go.

[Wheelhouse]

I would add that the Red's farm system of the mid-late 80's was a strength (Davis, Larkin, O'Neill, etc) that led to the 1990 WSC. Marge put an end to that, and Cast/Kriv has only recently revived it. Now (potentially) Jocketty will use those assets to rebuild the big league club.

Stark's comments are troubling, it will be difficult for WJ to attract quality "baseball people" when it's known that the owner is a loose cannon. But hey, that's why Walt gets the big bucks. If Cast has to overpay scouts and coaches to join the Red's system, that won't hurt my feelin's, none

Unfair to call Castellini a loose cannon. His patience was virtually endless with Jerry Narron. He is seeing a trend re-emerge with this year's team that has been there for a while. They find ways to lose ballgames. If the pitching is good, they will find a way to not produce runs. The losing has been constant and everything has been tried. He has no option but to try using fear.

[15fan]

He has no option but to try using fear.

And that's the worst "motivator" that you can ever try to use. Especially with grown adults.

Fear is usually the manifestation of insecurity and/or desperation.

Or both.

[gm]

What I'd like to hear from Jocketty is what do the Reds need to add to take the next step.

A couple of things I gleaned from the press conference, you probably heard them too, but...

Walt said he wasn't going to subtract (Wayne's) personnel from the farm system, but that he would try to add personnel to the system

(as long as they're the "right" people, I can go for that)

He would emphasize pitching and defense

(not sure what that bodes for Dunn and Encarnacion, we'll just have to wait and see)

[Falls City Beer]

And that's the worst "motivator" that you can ever try to use. Especially with grown adults.

Fear is usually the manifestation of insecurity and/or desperation.

Or both.

It isn't the right method, no. But it's not the method Cast is using. He wanted his man; he got his man. One occurrence is not a pattern.

[westofyou]

And that's the worst "motivator" that you can ever try to use. Especially with grown adults.

Fear is usually the manifestation of insecurity and/or desperation.

Or both.

Yep, the last resort of a desperate man.

[REDREAD]

That's for me to know and you to figure out.

It's not at all nonsense. Wouldn't you agree that you have a better opportunity to put together a winning ball club drawing ~4M rather than ~2M?

The first step to drawing 4 million is to put a product on the field that people want to see.

That was a critical mistake of John Allen. He had revenue surges when Jr arrived and when the GAB opened. Rather than reinvest in the team, he let the product rot on the vine.

I think this is the reason that Cast is not content to putz around for 7-10 years rebuilding. Fans are growing apathetic. Last year, the Reds had one of the worst attendences in baseball. I forget the exact numbers, but it was in the bottom 6, I think.

So, yes I agree. Jocketty has a huge hurdle to clear. It won't be easy. Maybe he'll screw it up. All I know is that Cast thought Wayne wasn't working, and IMO, I agree with him.

I think Wayne was liked by many on this board that enjoy following prospects and watching them come to the majors. Setting aside who gets credit for what, we had some young talent arrive. I think some of these posters would get just as much enjoyment out of seeing one good prospect arrive every year as they would winning a World Series. There's nothing wrong with that, it's a good way to enjoy the team. But this board represents probably the top .0001% of rabid fans. The average Joe doesn't really care if Ceuto is only 22 or what the farm pipeline is. He wants to see a team that wins more often than not. Those are the people that buy the bulk of the tickets, so I can see why Cast is pressing for a winning team.

[REDREAD]

I'm pretty sure that we're on the Baltimore plan, not the Minnesota or St Louis or whatever.

Magowan Rules.

It's a good thing that you are sometimes wrong, despite convincing yourself otherwise.

[Falls City Beer]

I think some of these posters would get just as much enjoyment out of seeing one good prospect arrive every year as they would winning a World Series.

Eek. I wish this weren't true. But...

[princeton]

The problem with this point, while somewhat valid, is that this wasn't a true "rebuilding" job. Mark Shapiro came in and got rid of his better players to build for the future. Wayne added to his best players. Shapiro dropped payroll by a lot. Wayne broke the record for most money spent on a FA reliever. Shapiro has a valid reason for struggling in his first few years. Wayne has much less validity.

Wayne didn't have "best" players; he had a pretty bad team. But Cast didn't want to break it apart; he wanted to add marginal relievers instead. That's a tough gig-- tougher than Shapiro's. Still, WK managed to really increase the talent -- moreso that Shapiro, IMO-- while living at the margins.

the Cordero contract is no issue over first two years, since he signed in year 3.

I can't think of anyone in baseball who ever had a better run of working waiver wires, DFA's, and Rule 5. Redread is trying to obfuscate by giving the idea that WK is all about minor leaguers. And you can't say enough about Reds' first home-grown arm in 20 years. But to me, the impressive things are cheap major league talents like BPhillips, JBurton, Keppy, Hamilton/Volquez.

[princeton]

Walt said he wasn't going to subtract (Wayne's) personnel from the farm system, but that he would try to add personnel to the system

did he sound as unconvinced about that happening ("would try") as your sentence reads? because honestly, I would think that he'd have a hard sell with this ownership.