Grandal Opts out, becomes Free Agent

[Mitri]

If they sign Grandal for 3/4 years, does Tyler Stephenson become a trade chip for Marte?

I love Stephenson but his value may just be peaking this offseason.

[Kc61]

Honestly, I would not mind overpaying for Grandal and just risking it blowing up.
We have backed ourselves into a corner to "Go for it" in 2020.. Bauer and Disco are pending FA. If that means paying Grandal 3/75 or giving him a 4th year, so be it.
Not sure the franchise is going to be relevant in 2024 anyhow.
We are set up to maybe contend in 2020, and then the wheels will start falling off from pending FA and lack of a farm system, so I am fine with screwing over 2023 or 2024 to win now.

It’s always a matter of degree - but I’m basically with this. Grandal has three things that fit Reds like a glove -

1. Left handed power, sorely needed.

2. High OBP, also sorely needed.

3. Upgrades a mediocre offensive position by a significant number. Could be 100 point jump in OPS at starting catcher.

I see two drawbacks. 1- Grandal is in his thirties. 2- Tyler Stephenson is getting ready.

For awhile Reds could use both Grandal and Stephenson. At some point a trade might be needed, but I’d sacrifice that “problem” for a big upgrade in 2020-21.

[Slyder]

Can he play 1b/LF if Votto retires/leaves as a FA in 2023 (with the buyout)?

If Grandal's bat sticks around for four years and Stephenson is as good as expected there's worst things than having too many high caliber especially at a position like catcher.

[RedsManRick]

In a bubble, I'd love to have Grandal. In practice, I'm not sure I'm going to want him at the sort of contract he likely wants (at least 4 years, $100M+). He's easily worth that, in abstract, but there's a lot of downside risk in a catcher entering his 30s -- especially with Votto under contract for 4 more years.

[mth123]

In a bubble, I'd love to have Grandal. In practice, I'm not sure I'm going to want him at the sort of contract he likely wants (at least 4 years, $100M+). He's easily worth that, in abstract, but there's a lot of downside risk in a catcher entering his 30s -- especially with Votto under contract for 4 more years.

You are totally correct. The problem is there is tons of downside risk in not bringing in a couple of bats like him either. The Reds are toast without adding 2 or 3 guys like Grandal. If it can't be done, blow it up. Deal Bauer and Disco. Get kids who can fill the many below average spots on the roster.

[BCubb2003]

People keep saying that owners have all kinds of money. I would think they’d have Grandal money. Sign him, then trade him or TySteve when the time comes.

[RedsManRick]

You are totally correct. The problem is there is tons of downside risk in not bringing in a couple of bats like him either. The Reds are toast without adding 2 or 3 guys like Grandal. If it can't be done, blow it up. Deal Bauer and Disco. Get kids who can fill the many below average spots on the roster.

I disagree. The overall risk is asymmetric. The downside risk of not acting is rather limited to the immediate future, but it doesn't limit your options moving forward. But when you sign a guy to a massive deal and it doesn't work out, it greatly limits your options for getting out of the hole you're in.

I 100% get the notion that the Reds need to move the needle to get in the mix, improving by something on the order of 10 wins of talent. I just think you're better off finding ways of doing that which don't require making a high volatility play on a catcher entering his decline phase.

All that said, if you're getting Grandal for 3/75, I'd be cool with that. Pay the man for the production you can expect in the next 2 or 3 years. It's the years beyond that which really make me nervous.

[Ohiohaybaler]

I thought Barnhart performed quite well after his DL stint. Grandal would be a good addition, but the Reds could also spend money on another free agent, or sign that Japanese CF and move Sezel to the infield. The Reds should keep their options open.

[TRF]

I thought Barnhart performed quite well after his DL stint. Grandal would be a good addition, but the Reds could also spend money on another free agent, or sign that Japanese CF and move Sezel to the infield. The Reds should keep their options open.

I was going to mention this same thing. After the break, Tucker posted better numbers than Grandal did. If the Reds believe Stephenson's ETA is 2021, I can see them rolling with Tucker.

[mth123]

I thought Barnhart performed quite well after his DL stint. Grandal would be a good addition, but the Reds could also spend money on another free agent, or sign that Japanese CF and move Sezel to the infield. The Reds should keep their options open.

They need to do all thise things. Though the Japanese CF sounds a little Peraza-ish to me.

[DocRed]

They need to do all thise things. Though the Japanese CF sounds a little Peraza-ish to me.

Hmm? He has hit 20+ HR's 3 straight years and has an OBP of over .400 over the last 5 years and an OPS over .900 during that time.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...d=akiyam000sho

[JaxRed]

Just read article that thought Braves might go hard after Grandal. If we got him, I wonder if they might want Barnhart.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Let's say they are able to sign Grandal for four years. Stephenson is probably not ready to be the regular catcher in 2020. If he makes the team in 2021, I doubt he's the second coming of JB and won't be starting 145 games behind the plate handling a modern pitching staff. By 2022, he could start the transition with Grandal -- and Grandal's bat can be a DH in interleague games and spell a 38? year old Joey Votto at first base. 2023 would be more of the same as 2022, with Stephenson transitioning to the starting catcher.

Thus, I think there is room for both of them as they hoist multiple WS trophys the next few years.

[mth123]

Hmm? He has hit 20+ HR's 3 straight years and has an OBP of over .400 over the last 5 years and an OPS over .900 during that time.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...d=akiyam000sho

I thought I heard him compared to Nori Aoki and that his range had dropped off and he's more of a LF now. He'll be 32 this year. Not sure what to believe. I'd rather have a proven big league bat.

[adkindo]

In a bubble, I'd love to have Grandal. In practice, I'm not sure I'm going to want him at the sort of contract he likely wants (at least 4 years, $100M+). He's easily worth that, in abstract, but there's a lot of downside risk in a catcher entering his 30s -- especially with Votto under contract for 4 more years.

where is the $100 Million coming from? Everything that I am reading is suggesting that he has a big market at 3 years @ $45 Million but will seek a 4th year for $60 Million although that final year may not be fully guaranteed.