Projected Arbitration Salaries

[Coopdaddy67]

Here's the thing with Reds salary dump trades - they are awful at them.

The Dodgers enjoy them though.

[REDREAD]

I could see Naquin being jettisoned and Schrock isntalled as the LH half of a RF platoon. I'd keep Naquin, but I like Schrock as well. A platoon with Senzel where Senzel plays against some RH pitchers and Schrock makes sense and could provide some savings for the Reds.

Garrett is the obvious non-tender. I think everyone else is a keeper at those prices.

I think keeping Naquin is a no brainer at that price. Schrock really can't play OF, and when they try it, he's only in LF, which is where a healthy Winker would be.. There's just no way Schrock is even possibly passable in CF or RF. Schrock should be kept as a bench bat, but not as an OF (other than an emergency)..

I think Farmer will be kept. Bell is a huge fan of Farmer. I forsee Barrio being a part time CF , part time infielder. It's actually kind of reasonable. They have no SS depth. They really can't risk handing Barrio the job and then he gets hurt or struggles and then they are forced to plug Suarez back in there.

I was as frustrated with Garrett as anyone, but at 2.2 million, that's not a bad gamble. If he can recover (and he did pitch better towards the end of the season), he's either a good reliever for us or a solid piece to trade at the deadline.. IF they really are pressed to save money, I'd rather them cut Hoffman, as his upside is a long man/ mop up guy.. Why keep Hoffman for 1.1 million, but not Garrett for 2.2 million?

Right now, it looks like the OF is going to be Winker plus a combination of Barrero, Senzel and Naquin.. Cutting Naquin would be pretty devastating, IMO. I don't expect the Reds to add a quality OF.

[REDREAD]

I’d punt Hoffman, Garrett, and Sims. Time to clear out the pen. Or at least force some original thinking as to how to improve it.

Sounds good in theory, but I have no confidence in them finding anyone better than Sims, whom I consider a solid middle reliever, but not a high leverage guy.
If they somehow get loaded up with bullpen talent (unlikely), I believe they can all these guys at some point in spring training and only have to pay them 20% of their arb salary..
That said, I can see punting Hoffman, he really has little value beyond emergency starter/mop up guy. I'd rather roll the dice and try to find something better.

[M2]

Hoffman's HR issues seem like a problem that's not going away. He's got some potential as a reliever, but playing half his games at the GAB probably isn't the place to fix what he needs to fix.

Just thinking out loud on Naquin, if the plan is to knock him to the bench, then maybe he's trade bait. There's probably going to be some backup OF types who get released in the coming months.

[757690]

My guess is the Reds non-tender Garrett, Hoffman and Sims. They love Farmer, so they will keep, though they really want to non-tender him. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign him to a long term deal similar to Barnhart's, something like 3 years, $10M.

The real signs to look for concerning the Reds off season will be Naquin and Cessa. Both seem like no brainers, but so did Goodwin and Bradley last off season. If they are still staying with the same payroll, they likely will be non-tendered, with more cuts coming. If they are adding payroll, they will be signed.

[M2]

There's a pretty strong argument Sims got unlucky. It's worth keeping him at his advertised price.

They'd be insane not to keep Cessa.

[757690]

They'd be insane not to keep Cessa.

Same was said about Bradley last off season. I’d keep them all, because it’s not my money, but I am not ruling out the Reds being cheap again this off season.

[Kc61]

Same was said about Bradley last off season. I’d keep them all, because it’s not my money, but I am not ruling out the Reds being cheap again this off season.

Bradley was far more expensive than Cessa is projected to be. Different case altogether.

This list is pretty fairly priced. I doubt we’ll see much carnage. Probably just Garrett.

[REDREAD]

There's a pretty strong argument Sims got unlucky. It's worth keeping him at his advertised price.

They'd be insane not to keep Cessa.

yep, at worse, Sims is a competent middle reliever.. we don't have enough of those, he will be useful next year if kept.
Of course, Sims has upside to be better than a middle reliever too.

[RedsFanInMS]

I’d punt Hoffman, Garrett, and Sims. Time to clear out the pen. Or at least force some original thinking as to how to improve it.

I'd give Sims another shot. Garrett and Hoffman need to go. Hoffman reminds me of a typical Reds pickup during the 15-19 "rebuild". Get him outta here.

[camisadelgolf]

1 Tyler Naquin – $3.6MM ($1.5MM)
If you don't bring in anyone to replace Castellanos, you keep him. Otherwise, an outfielder goes, and you can't justify keeping Akiyama over Naquin.
2 Luis Cessa – $1.6MM ($1.05MM)
I can't think of a reason not to pay him. He could pumpkin at any moment, but in a relief situation that needs a double-play, I want the pitcher who throws strikes and gets grounders most of the time.
2 Luis Castillo – $7.6MM ($4.2MM)
Early-season struggles aside, duh. No-brainer.
2 Amir Garrett – $2.2MM ($1.5MM)
He probably wasn't as bad as his stats, but oof. That was a terrible year. Personally I'm willing to give him one chance at a rebound year, but if the budget is tight (and I'm pretty sure it will be), this is the first cut I would make.
2 Jesse Winker – $6.8MM ($3.15MM)
The most obvious "yes" of them all.
2 Tyler Mahle – $5.6MM ($2.2MM)
Another obvious "yes".
3 Kyle Farmer – $2.2MM ($0.64MM)
There's no guarantee that Barrero is ready, but even if he is, you want depth at multiple positions. It would be silly not to retain Farmer. He's not a world-beater, but he more-than-justified a roster spot at this cost.
3 Jeff Hoffman – $1.1MM ($0.5855MM)
At one point this could have been a "no" from me, but his work in the bullpen wants me to give him another chance. If his control holds him back even more, you can always cut him in the first half of spring training to cut costs. I'd say the same about Garrett.
3 Lucas Sims – $1.2MM ($0.5985MM)
They don't have many better options. This is an easy "yes" at this price.
4 Nick Senzel – $1.1MM ($0.5805MM)
After the hype and amount in invested in him, you can't let him go for nothing. Hopefully he puts it together next year. If not, you revisit the situation.

[mth123]

I think all of these guys are no brainers except Garrett. Every one of them is worth the price shown. The reds won't be able to find replacements for less. If you think guy like Hoffman has too many HR issues for GABP, he can be easily dealt away to a team with a more forgiving ballpark. I'm a sleptic on Sims, but he's another guy who is worth his price. Remember, Bedrosian and Doolittle each cost more last year and were far worse than I expect either of those guys to be. I'm optimistic that the pen can be solid next year. I think a middle to late inning base of Santillan, Sims, Cessa and Hoffman is fairly solid, They need a closer and a late inning lefty. Non-tender these guys and you need 5 or 6 guys.

[Kinsm]

Why on earth would the Reds nontender Sims?

[Mitri]

I'd give Sims another shot. Garrett and Hoffman need to go. Hoffman reminds me of a typical Reds pickup during the 15-19 "rebuild". Get him outta here.

This is where I’ve landed. I could take or leave Sims but that’s just one less guy the Reds have to worry about bringing in. If he’s healthy I give him another year at that price. Hoffman and Garrett I would nontender. With the emergence of Sanmartin and Gutierrez the Reds have capable swingman arms. O’Brien, Green and Lodolo won’t need a ton of time in AAA. Go and use Hoffman’s money to lure Givens and another top lefty.

Givens
Cessa
Santillan
Sims
Warren
Wilson
2nd LHP

That’s a good start. No need for Hoffman, dude just doesn’t have an out pitch.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Cessa
Santillan
Sims
Warren
Wilson

This is why you keep Hoffman, IMO. Five guys who might be solid in the pen without resorting to rookies, free agents, and flotsam.

You forgot Cionel Perez-- he could be a second lefty and is out of options.
Brandon Bailey might be another relief option as well.
Reiver SanMartin as a long relief/ spot starter? I get it.
Gutierrez as an interesting arm out of the pen? Okay. Sure.

But they're risky. Especially at the prices the Reds are likely going to offer.

If you see Hoffman as another of that ilk, he's depth that's relatively fungible. Use him for a few months, see what he offers, send him away when/if there are other, better arms.

If you see him as below that echelon, jettisoning him makes sense.

That said, if his salary is the difference between Givens and no Givens, that's an easy call to me. Get rid of him, post-haste.