Reds claim OF Nick Martini off waivers, acquire RHP Justin Shafer, DFA Herget & BOG

[mth123]

The Reds and "dumpster diving," a tradition like no other...

Hopefully, there are some transactions down the line that a worthy of more than 1 or 2 posts...

The Reds have a bunch of guys out of options and the need to stock the AAA shuttle. Martini and Shafer have options. Something guys like Reed, Sims, Romano, Schebler and Jankowski don't have. My guess is some of these out of options guys will be let go to free roster spots at some point and they will still need AAAA depth

[Bourgeois Zee]

The Reds have a bunch of guys out of options and the need to stock the AAA shuttle. Martini and Shafer have options. Something guys like Reed, Sims, Romano, Schebler and Jankowski don't have. My guess is some of these out of options guys will be let go to free roster spots at some point and they will still need AAAA depth

Who, among those, is most likely to be sent packing?

[mth123]

Who, among those, is most likely to be sent packing?

In order, I'd guess Schebler, Romano, Jankowski. I think Reed is on the bubble. It depends how many guys they get and roster spots they need. With 13 pitchers and modern bullpen usage, they will need 4 or 5 guys they can send up and down for those last couple of spots when the pen is gassed and somebody just got hammered and only lasted three innings in a start. Sims, Romano, Reed, Stephenson can't be. Guys like Bowman, Alaniz, Shafer, Smith, Kuhnel and Hendrix are going to be the guys to get through the long season. Stephenson stays and maybe Sims depending on what else they do. I don't see the others sticking. They may be available early in the year, but by the end of Spring, most of these guys will be removed from the roster. The first time they need a fresh arm in April or May, those that survive the off-season will be lost as well. Stocking up on guys they can freely send up and down is a huge necessity.

[Griffey012]

Reed ain't going anywhere unless he was traded.

[mth123]

Reed ain't going anywhere unless he was traded.

I can't see him being a lock on the roster opening day. If the Reds do the right thing and add two or three relievers, there won't be a spot for him. The Reds pen needs help. If more than one of Sims, Reed and Romano make the roster, the off-season was a big fail. If only one makes it, I give the spot to Sims. The REds will have an man pen. Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett and Stephenson will be half of it. The need to add to set-up men and a multi-inning reliever sixth starter type. That leaves one spot for Sims, Reed, Romano and everybody else. Maybe none, because Bowman is probably ahead of all of those guys. I'm just not getting this Reed being a lock stuff. If they add nobody, he's the 7th best reliever on the roster at best. IF they add a couple, I don't see him making it.

[JaxRed]

Reed ain't going anywhere unless he was traded.

Absolutely. mth totally misreads the bullpen situation.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If more than one of Sims, Reed and Romano make the roster, the off-season was a big fail.

This is nuts, IMO.

Both Reed and Sims have shown enough stuff in the minors and small cups of coffee at the major league level to be given legitimate shots at bullpen spots.

I have both as near locks for the Cincinnati bullpen, assuming health. In fact, I'd guess the first six spots are going to be pretty easy choices, assuming there are no major signings:

Rasiel Iglesias
Amir Garrett
Jared Lorenzen
Robert Stepenson
Lucas Sims
Cody Reed

Between them, they can play percentages and have extremely high K totals and extremely low H totals. Issues are BB and HR. (If the ball is deadened, they may be among the better bullpens in the game.) Both Reed and Garrett can be more than LOOGY's, but neither is above just coming in for the one or two-batter inning either. Sims, Reed, and Stephenson can all go multiple innings as well.

After that, they already have a relatively nice mix of bullpen depth available for the seventh and eighth spots. Each of the following could make the I-71 trip multiple times this season. (They each have at least one more option remaining.)
Matt Bowman
Justin Shafer
Jose De Leon
Ryan Hendrix
Joel Kuhnel
RJ Alaniz
Josh Smith

I assume Williams and company will add at least one more veteran bullpen arm. Kevin Gausman might well be that guy already. So might Tyler Mahle. If they add two, look for a deal, as they may have too many good young arms and not enough space.

[WrongVerb]

This is nuts, IMO.

Both Reed and Sims have shown enough stuff in the minors and small cups of coffee at the major league level to be given legitimate shots at bullpen spots.

I have both as near locks for the Cincinnati bullpen, assuming health. In fact, I'd guess the first six spots are going to be pretty easy choices, assuming there are no major signings:

Rasiel Iglesias
Amir Garrett
Jared Lorenzen
Robert Stepenson
Lucas Sims
Cody Reed

Between them, they can play percentages and have extremely high K totals and extremely low H totals. Issues are BB and HR. (If the ball is deadened, they may be among the better bullpens in the game.) Both Reed and Garrett can be more than LOOGY's, but neither is above just coming in for the one or two-batter inning either. Sims, Reed, and Stephenson can all go multiple innings as well.

After that, they already have a relatively nice mix of bullpen depth available for the seventh and eighth spots. Each of the following could make the I-71 trip multiple times this season. (They each have at least one more option remaining.)
Matt Bowman
Justin Shafer
Jose De Leon
Ryan Hendrix
Joel Kuhnel
RJ Alaniz
Josh Smith

I assume Williams and company will add at least one more veteran bullpen arm. Kevin Gausman might well be that guy already. So might Tyler Mahle. If they add two, look for a deal, as they may have too many good young arms and not enough space.

I'm still rooting for the Reds to sign Pomeranz as the 3rd lefty in the pen.

[REDREAD]

This is nuts, IMO.

Both Reed and Sims have shown enough stuff in the minors and small cups of coffee at the major league level to be given legitimate shots at bullpen spots.

I have both as near locks for the Cincinnati bullpen, assuming health. In fact, I'd guess the first six spots are going to be pretty easy choices, assuming there are no major signings:

Rasiel Iglesias
Amir Garrett
Jared Lorenzen
Robert Stepenson
Lucas Sims
Cody Reed

I see your logic, but at the same time, I am more inclined to agree with mth.
Lack of quality arms in the pen killed us last year.
Going into this year, there's questions of some degree of every guy on that list, other than Lorenzen.

Are we getting good Iglesis this year? Are we getting the struggling Garret that finished last year? (I have high hopes for him , but he's still a risk).

We can keep one of Sims or Reed as the last man out of the pen. We need to add 2 more bullpen arms at least. Otherwise, Lorenzen and Garrett are going to get worn out in the first 8-12 weeks again and be useless for the stretch run.

If we were in another rebuild year, yea, sure, keep them both and develop them.
We are trying to win this year though. We need quality depth.

Hopefully another team sees Sims and/or Reed as a useful kid to trade for and develop.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Lack of quality arms in the pen killed us last year.

The bullpen, again, was pretty solid last year.

Two veteran arms failed. They're not gone.

The closer struggled a great deal with HR and his nearly historically poor result in blowing saves meant the Reds' pen looked bad.

It's not the supporting cast that's still in Cincinnati who struggled. In fact, that supporting cast was very, very good, when healthy.

Both of the guys you wouldn't mind getting rid of showed real promise over the course of multiple seasons, culminating in solid peripherals at the major league level last year.

Why get rid of them now?

I mean, I understand jettisoning Iglesias. His HR rate is stratospheric and his fly ball rate is really poor (despite great K rate).

I don't understand spending all that time and money developing a couple of good young cheap arms only to send them elsewhere when they're ready.

[Griffey012]

I can't see him being a lock on the roster opening day. If the Reds do the right thing and add two or three relievers, there won't be a spot for him. The Reds pen needs help. If more than one of Sims, Reed and Romano make the roster, the off-season was a big fail. If only one makes it, I give the spot to Sims. The REds will have an man pen. Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett and Stephenson will be half of it. The need to add to set-up men and a multi-inning reliever sixth starter type. That leaves one spot for Sims, Reed, Romano and everybody else. Maybe none, because Bowman is probably ahead of all of those guys. I'm just not getting this Reed being a lock stuff. If they add nobody, he's the 7th best reliever on the roster at best. IF they add a couple, I don't see him making it.

If the Reds add 2-3 relievers they’ve messed up the off-season by blowing money/assets on volatile players for a marginal improvement while leaving holes elsewhere. Give me a steady veteran via free agency on a reasonable deal or give me a guy with dominant stuff via trade.

Reed looked great last year then messed up his knee. He is a near lock barring a spring training meltdown because he is a better arm than anything they will get elsewhere. And he still has a chance to be a really good reliever. He’s ahead of all but those top four in my book.

Lucas Sims is your multi-inning 6th starter guy. Or perhaps Gausman back on a cheaper deal.

Romano is gone as far as I’m concerned.

[mth123]

If the Reds add 2-3 relievers they’ve messed up the off-season by blowing money/assets on volatile players for a marginal improvement while leaving holes elsewhere. Give me a steady veteran via free agency on a reasonable deal or give me a guy with dominant stuff via trade.

Reed looked great last year then messed up his knee. He is a near lock barring a spring training meltdown because he is a better arm than anything they will get elsewhere. And he still has a chance to be a really good reliever. He’s ahead of all but those top four in my book.

Lucas Sims is your multi-inning 6th starter guy. Or perhaps Gausman back on a cheaper deal.

Romano is gone as far as I’m concerned.

Reed pitched 6 and a third innings last year. That's a lot of trust in such a small sample. They have one decent bullpen pitcher right now. That's Lorenzen. Maybe a second with Stephenson, but I don't trust him at all. We've seen too many flashes in the past only to see him end up being shelled when reality sets in. Same for Garrett. I'm willing to roll with Iglesias as the closer, but they need some reliable guys in front of him. Anybody other than those four is a mop-up guy and the mop-up guys who don't have options won't last when they need
another arm.

Gausman is too expensive. If they are going to spend that much, they can get a high end guy not a 6 ERA.

[Kingspoint]

A RED who actually understands the importance of not making an out...Martini should help them score runs. Too bad he's not a CF.

Injured last year running into a wall. Injured last year tripping over his own shoelaces. Sounds like a klutz in the Outfield...Typical A's Corner Outfielder.

[Griffey012]

Reed pitched 6 and a third innings last year. That's a lot of trust in such a small sample. They have one decent bullpen pitcher right now. That's Lorenzen. Maybe a second with Stephenson, but I don't trust him at all. We've seen too many flashes in the past only to see him end up being shelled when reality sets in. Same for Garrett. I'm willing to roll with Iglesias as the closer, but they need some reliable guys in front of him. Anybody other than those four is a mop-up guy and the mop-up guys who don't have options won't last when they need
another arm.

Gausman is too expensive. If they are going to spend that much, they can get a high end guy not a 6 ERA.

You know who always ends up making the best relievers? Failed starters, which is exactly what we have with Stephenson, Garrett, and Reed. Why can't the Reds build their own good bullpen? They have the arms and the system in place to do so. It would be dumb to ignore all the investment and dividends we have seen from the pitching side and go buy a bullpen, that likely isn't better than what we have.

Stephenson just threw 64 innings in 57 appearances with 11K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. He finished the year in dominant fashion and moved into high leverage situations and pitched well. What else is he supposed to do? Better relievers will cost you $10M a year on the open market. Garrett had an up and down year but in the end still rung up a 3.21 ERA with 12.5 K/9, he has room for improvement if he can lower those walks.

How do the Reds get 2-3 bullpen arms that are better than Stephenson and Garrett? Aside from leaving the offense and starting pitching in tact.

Totally fine without Gausman, I only want him back if he signs a cheap deal, I am not paying his likely Arb price. Yet still, you don't get a high end guy for what Gausman will get in Arb.

The Reds best way into contention is improving the offense, adding another starting pitcher, and shoring up the back up on the cheap or with internal options. The Reds have to improve somewhere internally so they can focus resources elsewhere, the bullpen is the best bet.

[REDREAD]

I don't understand spending all that time and money developing a couple of good young cheap arms only to send them elsewhere when they're ready.

I see your point. I am willing to keep one of Sims or Reed to continue their development. I am willing to keep Robert Stephenson, as he is more promising than either of them.

Romano needs to be jettisoned. He will most likely never be a decent pitcher. At some point, a team has to cut their losses. I feel the same about just about every other low leverage guy we had last year. I would prefer to have a 12 man bullpen, because if they have a 13 man pen, the 13th guy will never be used anyhow by Bell. (Not sure if the new 26 man roster rules allow 12 or 13 pitchers).

I want to have more certainty in the bullpen. We can recoup our investment in Sims and Reed by trading them to a rebuilding team. It is not a total waste. If there is no market for one of those guys, then we have to ask ourselves, why are we keeping them? Romano is a good example here. I doubt any club wants him enough to trade even a C prospect for him.

Bottom line is that I think the pen needs some improvement. Locking down 6 spots in the pen now does not leave much room to improve. There has to be the flexibility to cut a marginal guy like Reed or Sims. I want the Reds to be proactive, not passive (as they were last year, when they did nothing to help the pen).