Three quarters of the 60-game season complete. Reds finish third quarter at 7-8, following 7-8 and 6-9 for Q1 and Q2. Reds now 20-25, trailing Cards by 2.5 and Brewers by 1.5 in race for second Central playoff spot. Reds also 3 back for final wild spot trailing four teams. Reds 12-14 on road (including one game counted as "home") and 8-11 at home. 10 of final 13 at home presents opportunity but uphill fight. Reds -25 RS/RA, were -3 after Q2. Reds 6-7 in one run games, not great but in normal range as compared with 2019.
Offense - Reds at .211/.310/.400/.710, a slight drop off from Q2. OPS fell from 10th to 12th in NL. BA worst in MLB. Using wRC+ (league adjusted, 100 league average), Reds at 88, 25th in MLB. Reds with highest walk rate in NL, 11.1% and fourth highest BB/K rate. Reds ISO power is sixth in NL, .189, and tied for 4th-5th in HRs, 66. But Reds with lowest BABIP in MLB, .241, Reds with fly ball style, fourth lowest GB/FB ratio in NL, 1.08. Reds pull % is fifth highest in league at 42.8% and oppo % 11th at 22.5% Bottom line Reds have scored 172 runs, third fewest in league, only Cards (fewer games) and Pirates with less.
Using 100 wRC+ as the break point, Winker (152), Casali, Castellanos, Senzel, Suarez, Moustakas at or above 100. Votto on the cusp at 97. But long list at 88 wRC+ or below - in descending order Galvis, Aquino, Akiyama, Barnhart, Davidson (sent down), Farmer, Goodwin (as Red), Payton (sent down), Ervin (DFA), VanMeter (traded), Colon (sent down), Garcia, Jankowski (sent down). Hotter batters over last 14 days Akiyama 157 wRC+, Votto 140, Casali 139, Suarez 124, Moustakas 122. Winker 17th MLB in average EV (50 PA min) at 92.7. Cast 30th in Barrel % 15.8.
Pitching - Reds team ERA now 4.14, fourth in NL, though Fangraphs shows slightly higher 4.21 (small discrepancy over earned v unearned runs). Last time was 3.83 so some slippage. Fangraphs has FIP at 4.06, fourth in NL. Pitching fWAR tied for league lead with Brewers at 6.8. Reds starters with league best fWAR at 6, well ahead of second place teams, and low ERA of 3.73, FIP of 3.62. Bullpen 7-6 with 5.01 ERA, 4.79 FIP, and 8th best NL 0.8 fWAR. Relief FIP almost identical as last report, 4.78. Over last 14 days pen is 4.29 ERA, 4.33 FIP, with 3-1 W-L.
Bauer with 1.74 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 51.2 innings, only 28 hits, 0.79 WHIP, 12.37 K/9, 2.26 BB/9. Castillo, though 2-5, with 3.44 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 11.35 K/9, 3.44 B/9, low HR rate of 0.69. Luis with 59.1% GB rate. Gray with a couple of subpar starts up to 3.94 ERA but still 2.93 FIP, 11.82 K rate, high 4.14 BB rate, good 47.8% ground ball rate. Mahle with 37 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 10.95 K rate, 3.16 BB rate, but 1.46 HR rate too high. Antone now in rotation, 25 IP, 2.49 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 11.72 K rate, 3.91 BB rate. Disco with high ERA not yet on track.
Main relievers (15 or more outings) led by Garrett with 1.93 ERA, 2.69 FIP, Sims 2.12 ERA, 3.42 FIP. Iglesias 4.11 ERA but 2.54 FIP. All with high K rates, although Sims with 3.71 BB rate. Lorenzen 5.23 ERA, 7.40 K rate, 6.10 BB rate, though results a bit better over last 14 days. Nate Jones leads team with 17 outings, -0.1 fWAR and high ERA/FIP.
Fielding - Fangraphs Def Reds team fourth from bottom of NL at -5.1. DRS Reds -5, 11th in NL. Barnhart 20th in NL individual Fangraphs Def with 2.0 rating. Galvis at short 1.6 Def. Garcia and Winker in smaller samples in positive territory. Votto -5.1 and Castellanos -3.1 using that Def stat.
Let's see if Reds can have a hot finish and approach or even reach .500.