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Thread: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

  1. #256
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    I wonder if a guy like Bauer who usually starts the season very strong because of his offseason routine, will be used for some short rest starts to try and get the Reds out of the gate fast.


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  3. #257
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Past that point, people are going to end up homeless en masse. There would be a major suicide boom - I know I’m already struggling after one week, and I’m pushing myself to make it 2 months max. There would be widespread social unrest.

    I know this is a relatively dark thing to say, but this is a virus that by and large kills the very old and sick in massive numbers, and mostly everyone else makes it. People are not going to be willing to make the trade off of ruining their lives to buy an extra year or two of life for the people who aren’t making it right now. It just won’t happen.
    Thanks for writing this. I've found that at the beginning of this people were awfully sanguine about the idea of being isolated for months and it's toll on mental health. We're social creatures.

    I'd color myself an optimist -- at least about the disease itself. In fact I'll go so far as to say that I'm a bit skeptical about the dominant narrative. I don't believe it's hoax or some fiendish master plan, but I think we need to step away from the social media posts about a sister-in-law's friend who's an exhausted ER nurse or the death of a random young guy somewhere. We should also question the online Miss Cleos and assorted Nostradomi who pretend to know.

    If you focus on the actual numbers, it's not quite as scary. Yes, the hockey stick graphs can be frightening because they show "Total Cases", which of course rise. But diseases are dynamic. The hockey stick rise includes lots of lots of people who've already recovered and, yes, a few that have sadly died. So the "Active Cases" is a better snapshot of where we are right now. And of those Active Cases, 95% have mild symptoms.

    Lockdowns were the right thing to do, especially in hot-spots, so that we can ramp up capacity to deal with an influx of sick people. But the idea that we're going to shelter in place until we disappear Covid-19 is preposterous.
    Last edited by Rojo; 03-27-2020 at 07:50 PM.

  4. #258
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Italy ignored the disease for too long, 1,000 Italians died today from COVID.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  5. #259
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    So I read somewhere that community spread was quite low and that the spread was mostly from intimate clusters, i.e families, nursing homes, workplaces and, eck, hospitals.

    I can't find that link now.

    But it did get me wondering if that old cliche of young Italians living "at home" until they married was still true.

    Googling, it looks like it's true.

    https://www.theglobalist.com/italy-m...n-homes-youth/

    1.Among the larger EU countries, Italy has the highest share of 18 to 34-year-olds living with one or more parents.

    2.That reality – the highest EU share of youth at home – was true a decade ago and remains true today, but the actual share did increase.

    3.Back then, in 2005, nearly 61% lived with a parent. By 2014, that ratio has risen to more than 65%, according to Eurostat data.

    4.However, with an increase of 4.5 percentage points between 2005 and 2014, Italy did not have the largest increase in that cohabitation ratio.

    5.One prominent factor in the further increase of young people living at home with parents is that Italy’s annual GDP growth has been less than 2% or negative over the entire past decade.

    6.In 2005, Italy’s share was well above the 49.1% median among EU countries that are also Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members. (In 2014, the median was 45.4%.)

    7.Other EU countries with a level of above 60% are Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, Slovenia and Poland.

    8.The lowest rates — below 25% — are found in Denmark, Finland and Sweden.

    9.To compare Italy’s shift with another large EU economy, the UK share of youth living with parents was 4.6% higher in 2014 than in 2005. There it rose from 29.1% to just below 34%.

    10.The British spike peaked in 2009, reaching almost four in ten U.K. 18 to 34-year-olds living with a parent, before subsiding somewhat.

  6. #260
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Italy ignored the disease for too long, 1,000 Italians died today from COVID.
    1,000 Americans will die in a couple days.

    I just don't see baseball returning anytime soon.

  7. #261
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Thanks for writing this. I've found that at the beginning of this people were awfully sanguine about the idea of being isolated for months and it's toll on mental health. We're social creatures.

    I'd color myself an optimist -- at least about the disease itself. In fact I'll go so far as to say that I'm a bit skeptical about the dominant narrative. I don't believe it's hoax or some fiendish master plan, but I think we need to step away from the social media posts about a sister-in-law's friend who's an exhausted ER nurse or the death of a random young guy somewhere. We should also question the online Miss Cleos and assorted Nostradomi who pretend to know.

    If you focus on the actual numbers, it's not quite as scary. Yes, the hockey stick graphs can be frightening because they show "Total Cases", which of course rise. But diseases are dynamic. The hockey stick rise includes lots of lots of people who've already recovered and, yes, a few that have sadly died. So the "Active Cases" is a better snapshot of where we are right now. And of those Active Cases, 95% have mild symptoms.

    Lockdowns were the right thing to do, especially in hot-spots, so that we can ramp up capacity to deal with an influx of sick people. But the idea that we're going to shelter in place until we disappear Covid-19 is preposterous.
    Couldn’t agree more with this whole post.

    There are various theories sprouting up here and there that suggest that this isn’t as deadly on its own as initially thought. The main threat it poses is that it spreads like wildfire so too many people get it at once and the overwhelmed ERs are where the real danger is. But there’s also some evidence to suggest it’s been more widespread for longer than we’ve realized and there’s way more asymptomatic cases than we’ve actually picked up since most of the world hasn’t been doing widespread testing for relatively long.

    This whole thing is rough on my mental health, but when I look at the actual numbers and the things being written by people who actually know what they’re talking about (and avoid social media) I feel pretty optimistic too.

  8. #262
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Italy ignored the disease for too long, 1,000 Italians died today from COVID.
    They were just the absolute perfect storm from what I’ve read. Old population, heavy smokers, generational living situation as Rojo noted, northern Italy in particular had a big connection with China and imported a ton of cases.

    NYC is getting hard for similar reasons. Population density, many imported cases. From what I read yesterday, NYC has over half the cases in the United States.

  9. #263
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    They were just the absolute perfect storm from what I’ve read. Old population, heavy smokers, generational living situation as Rojo noted, northern Italy in particular had a big connection with China and imported a ton of cases.

    NYC is getting hard for similar reasons. Population density, many imported cases. From what I read yesterday, NYC has over half the cases in the United States.
    Until next week. Detroit, Miami, New Orleans, all major cities are going to get hit.

  10. #264
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Until next week. Detroit, Miami, New Orleans, all major cities are going to get hit.
    I'm sure the numbers are going to go up. But why assume we're Italy and not South Korea? We could be either one, we don't know. There are a TON of variables. Epidemiologists will be studying this for years. And my gut says that we'll look back on our current response as ham-fisted.

  11. #265
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    I’m going off the numbers reported every day.

  12. #266
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Couldn’t agree more with this whole post.

    There are various theories sprouting up here and there that suggest that this isn’t as deadly on its own as initially thought. The main threat it poses is that it spreads like wildfire so too many people get it at once and the overwhelmed ERs are where the real danger is. But there’s also some evidence to suggest it’s been more widespread for longer than we’ve realized and there’s way more asymptomatic cases than we’ve actually picked up since most of the world hasn’t been doing widespread testing for relatively long.

    This whole thing is rough on my mental health, but when I look at the actual numbers and the things being written by people who actually know what they’re talking about (and avoid social media) I feel pretty optimistic too.


    If you look at the current models released by The Cleveland Clinic, one of the most respected medical institutions in the world staffed by a number of world renowned epidemiologists, you will feel anything but optimistic. This thing hasn't even really begun yet, especially in the state of Ohio.

  13. #267
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Gant View Post
    [/B]

    If you look at the current models released by The Cleveland Clinic, one of the most respected medical institutions in the world staffed by a number of world renowned epidemiologists, you will feel anything but optimistic. This thing hasn't even really begun yet, especially in the state of Ohio.
    Maybe. But there isn't one expert opinion.

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/...navirus-panic/

  14. #268
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Gant View Post
    [/B]

    If you look at the current models released by The Cleveland Clinic, one of the most respected medical institutions in the world staffed by a number of world renowned epidemiologists, you will feel anything but optimistic. This thing hasn't even really begun yet, especially in the state of Ohio.
    ok

  15. #269
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    I’m going off the numbers reported every day.
    What other numbers are reported every day?

  16. #270
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    What other numbers are reported every day?
    The numbers that are doubling every 2-3 days here. I’ve posted them a number of times, including in P&R, you shouldn’t have missed them.


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