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Thread: Time to blow it up!

  1. #286
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Constant complaining about what can’t be undone is useless and frankly boring. This trade has been litigated to death. It’s time to move on.
    I'll never understand the complaining about other people making comments on a message board.

    If you are tired of or don't want to read comments about a past trade, or possible trade, or whatever just ignore the damn thread.

    I was at one time tired of Tracy bashing on Winker and am tired of Sea Ray's trolling in the politics thread so 99% of the time I ignore them. Every so often, I fire back at it.

    I believe it was a dumb trade made to appease a fanbase, it was shortsighted and we will soon see the downfall from said trade. Therefor, it's still a relevant conversation IMHO. If you don't agree, then move to the next thread.

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  4. #287
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    I'll never understand the complaining about other people making comments on a message board.

    If you are tired of or don't want to read comments about a past trade, or possible trade, or whatever just ignore the damn thread.

    I was at one time tired of Tracy bashing on Winker and am tired of Sea Ray's trolling in the politics thread so 99% of the time I ignore them. Every so often, I fire back at it.

    I believe it was a dumb trade made to appease a fanbase, it was shortsighted and we will soon see the downfall from said trade. Therefor, it's still a relevant conversation IMHO. If you don't agree, then move to the next thread.
    Winker can change things. He’s playing for the Reds in the major leagues. This trade can’t be redone, rehashed, undone, voided, changed, or otherwise made to turn out the way you’d have liked it.

    And yes, I could just move on, and usually do, but the 8,319th time you called the Reds and the trade dumb was really an attention grabber. It added so much new information I just had to add some commentary.

  5. #288
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Therefor, it's still a relevant conversation IMHO. If you don't agree, then move to the next thread.
    I mean, it's kind of weird because we have the thread on the first page of this board for discussion of that trade. This one was supposed to be about whether the Reds need to "blow it up" now or not, but instead we've got at least one persistant poster who wants to ignore any "where do we go now" aspect and instead talk about how much he hates that trade.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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  7. #289
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tracy Jones View Post
    This trade can’t be redone, rehashed, undone, voided, changed, or otherwise made to turn out the way you’d have liked it.
    But maybe the Reds can file a grievance , like they did with Majewski
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #290
    Member Tracy Jones's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    But maybe the Reds can file a grievance , like they did with Majewski
    Lol yeah. I think the commissioners office is still taking that grievance filing under advisement.

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  10. #291
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    It's not time to blow it up, but it is time for the entire organization to understand that it is 162 game season and if you go into September of 2020 with multiple players you expect to contribute on the DL you will again be fighting the Pirates for last place. You need to bolster both the major league roster and the AAA roster for the marathon that the season is. A team resorting to Michael Lorenzen as starting CF for multiple days isn't what the Reds need.
    Where we gonna go?

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  12. #292
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'll start by answering your question: Houston Astros, KC Royals. Those are two excellent models to follow.
    The question was centered around farm system's, developing talent - and the names of teams who have won a WS, and whose roster was built on (dominated) by prospects developed in their system. The Astros and Royals had (have) some talented, elite, prospects on their team; but their rosters weren't primarily built from players they developed.

    We've already had this discussion on KC. Where they at now? They're 58-104 (.358), and 39 GB. Yes, they won a WS ('15). Awesome. But the bigger question should be "What has happened to the Royals four years removed from a World Series?" because they are terrible.

    They lost marquee players to free agency, yet their farm system didn't have replacements, answers. What's up with that? Their 1st round picks have not panned out. And you think the Reds have made some bad deals and blunders, then take a look at some of the deals the KC FO has made over the last few years, and the people they brought in that have flopped. They traded P Strahm to SD for three pitchers that did nothing. Last year they traded Moustakas to Milwaukee in exchange for Jorge Lopez and Brett Phillips. Another bust. And their farm system has not been in the top 20 for the last couple of years.

    No. KC is not the model I want to follow.

    The Astros are, IMO, the best team in MLB. I think they're #1 in the Power Ranking now. And they have an excellent farm system. They were the worst team in MLB and were able to take advantage of a new collective bargaining agreement that greatly incentivized losing, giving the worst teams the most money to spend on amateur talent. They also got the first pick for three straight years. That helps.

    But having the picks is one thing. It all comes down to the decision-makers. And GM Luhnow knows what he's doing.

    But look at how the Astros have utilized their farm system. Yes, they developed players like Correa, Bregman, and a few others; but they also traded away prospects. Some worked out, some have not; but overall positive results.

    So yeah, I'd love to emulate their model - as would a majority of MLB teams - because, IMO, they're a solid example of how to utilize your farm system "assets".


    Now here's my question: What team has the model of trading prospects for one yr rentals when they're in last place?
    A lot. Because the way one gets out of last place is not solely by developing prospects, but also by leveraging some of those prospects (assets) to acquire needs (see Astro's model above).

    I'll trade potential for established performance every day. The Reds wanted starting pitching. I'm not going to hold up a trade for a pitcher like Bauer for unproven prospects just because of their tag-line.

    The Reds should have solid pitching next year. The just need to get aggressive on this offense over the winter.
    Last edited by GAC; 09-17-2019 at 08:14 AM.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

  13. #293
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    The question was centered around farm system's, developing talent - and the names of teams who have won a WS, and whose roster was built on (dominated) by prospects developed in their system. The Astros and Royals had (have) some talented, elite, prospects on their team; but their rosters weren't primarily built from players they developed.

    We've already had this discussion on KC. Where they at now? They're 58-104 (.358), and 39 GB. Yes, they won a WS ('15). Awesome. But the bigger question should be "What has happened to the Royals four years removed from a World Series?" because they are terrible.

    They lost marquee players to free agency, yet their farm system didn't have replacements, answers. What's up with that? Their 1st round picks have not panned out. And you think the Reds have made some bad deals and blunders, then take a look at some of the deals the KC FO has made over the last few years, and the people they brought in that have flopped. They traded P Strahm to SD for three pitchers that did nothing. Last year they traded Moustakas to Milwaukee in exchange for Jorge Lopez and Brett Phillips. Another bust. And their farm system has not been in the top 20 for the last couple of years.

    No. KC is not the model I want to follow.

    The Astros are, IMO, the best team in MLB. I think they're #1 in the Power Ranking now. And they have an excellent farm system. They were the worst team in MLB and were able to take advantage of a new collective bargaining agreement that greatly incentivized losing, giving the worst teams the most money to spend on amateur talent. They also got the first pick for three straight years. That helps.

    But having the picks is one thing. It all comes down to the decision-makers. And GM Luhnow knows what he's doing.

    But look at how the Astros have utilized their farm system. Yes, they developed players like Correa, Bregman, and a few others; but they also traded away prospects. Some worked out, some have not; but overall positive results.

    So yeah, I'd love to emulate their model - as would a majority of MLB teams - because, IMO, they're a solid example of how to utilize your farm system "assets".




    A lot. Because the way one gets out of last place is not solely by developing prospects, but also by leveraging some of those prospects (assets) to acquire needs (see Astro's model above).

    I'll trade potential for established performance every day. The Reds wanted starting pitching. I'm not going to hold up a trade for a pitcher like Bauer for unproven prospects just because of their tag-line.

    The Reds should have solid pitching next year. The just need to get aggressive on this offense over the winter.
    Houston is a much larger market than KC or the Reds. They're currently #6 in MLB payrolls. That's not territory where the Reds can "hang". Please, please accept that reality first. If you think the Reds can be a top 6 market in MLB then there's not much sense in going on. MLB's system sucks. The best you can hope to do is do it the Marlins, KC way. Win a WS , tear it down and start over again. The problem is the Reds didn't build it back up right and one of those problems is how they're rebuilding.

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  15. #294
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Houston is a much larger market than KC or the Reds. They're currently #6 in MLB payrolls. That's not territory where the Reds can "hang". Please, please accept that reality first. If you think the Reds can be a top 6 market in MLB then there's not much sense in going on.
    We're not discussing market strength or payroll size. We're talking about farm systems and developing talent. Why are you now changing the path of the discussion? You're injecting an aspect (market size) that an organization has no control over. It is what it is. Totally separate discussion. We're talking about an issue that is far more fluid, and where teams can have a direct impact on (change) to produce a better product (farm system, developing talent).

    You're the one who brought up Houston and said the Reds need to follow their model. I assumed you were referring farm system and developing talent correct? That's what I addressed. Their GM is a smart man, and has built the Astros with a mixture of developed prospects and shrewd market trades utilizing some of those assets that you, and some others, say teams should not be trading away because they're too invaluable.

    Are you know going to come back and say "Well, the Astros can afford to do that, take those risks with prospects, because they're a big market team and the Reds aren't". Then they shouldn't be held up as a model the Reds should follow then, if it's all about market size, revenue, and payroll.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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  17. #295
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    The Astros also changed the nature of their minor league set up. They let go of many of the scouts that were employed and the scouts they retained became collectors of data. The data was then was analyzed back at the corporate office. I think they also started looking at their internal structure and what needed measured. They made a huge shift in the way they went and got talent and developed it. The Reds are 6-8 years behind - they are never out in front on anything.

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  19. #296
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    We're not discussing market strength or payroll size. We're talking about farm systems and developing talent. Why are you now changing the path of the discussion? You're injecting an aspect (market size) that an organization has no control over. It is what it is. Totally separate discussion. We're talking about an issue that is far more fluid, and where teams can have a direct impact on (change) to produce a better product (farm system, developing talent).

    You're the one who brought up Houston and said the Reds need to follow their model. I assumed you were referring farm system and developing talent correct? That's what I addressed. Their GM is a smart man, and has built the Astros with a mixture of developed prospects and shrewd market trades utilizing some of those assets that you, and some others, say teams should not be trading away because they're too invaluable.

    Are you know going to come back and say "Well, the Astros can afford to do that, take those risks with prospects, because they're a big market team and the Reds aren't". Then they shouldn't be held up as a model the Reds should follow then, if it's all about market size, revenue, and payroll.
    If you're talking about developing prospects, great. Houston is a wonderful model. What's your point?

  20. #297
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    One’s a serial contrarian and the other’s Another poster in disguise. This is fun.

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  22. #298
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    The Astros also changed the nature of their minor league set up. They let go of many of the scouts that were employed and the scouts they retained became collectors of data. The data was then was analyzed back at the corporate office. I think they also started looking at their internal structure and what needed measured. They made a huge shift in the way they went and got talent and developed it. The Reds are 6-8 years behind - they are never out in front on anything.
    I disagree with the part in bold. I think it might be closer to 3 years behind. Maybe less. The problem now isn't analytics but rather talent acquisition. What they have done at the MLB level in terms of pitching, acquisition and development is astounding. Especially starting pitching.

    But the minors right now was used as fuel to gather MLB players. Whether we agree with that strategy, it was in fact a strategy. One that has been a mixed bag. But Sonny Gray is a Reds for another 4 years. Bauer is under team control for another year, or could easily be flipped this off season. Desclafani in the second half has been a different pitcher. Castillo may be tiring, but 2020 looks very bright for him.

    The Reds lost Jo Jo Gray, Downs, Trammell, Rainey, Long and Moss from the system. Any way you look at it, that's quite the hit. Their 2nd rd. pick played three games this year. The top prospect hasn't thrown a pitch this year. The #3 prospect in the system is looking an awful lot like another Alex Blandino. They need an influx of talent, and in a hurry.

    I'm hoping the Reds are doing extensive scouting and data acquisition in Latin America, Cuba and hopefully Asia. I believe they have a small peep hole into Australia. Brazil and Argentina are relatively untapped markets that the Reds have a connection to, at least in Brazil they do.

    They don't need to think outside the box. They need to use the resources they have to build a completely different container. I believe the analytics are there, I think the development is getting better. Just a matter of finding the right bodies.
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  24. #299
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    TRF: you may be correct, wrt to the timeline- there is an advantage in being the "2nd Mover". The Reds decide to tank-they've seen other teams do so and they have noticed it leads to increased wins down the road. The Reds decide to tank. I'm guessing they want to mimic what's occurred with the Astros and it looks like the Astros - and it feels like the Astros- hell, it even smells like the Astros. The difference being that when the Astros did it they changed their whole mind set (organizational philosophy) on what to measure and how to develop talent. The change was organic so they knew exactly what they wanted and how to develop and support the players growth. The Reds do the same thing and yet it's off -the dividend isn't the same because they don't know it how to get from drafting a player . The Reds are often reactive - they don't lead in anything. That's not saying being reactive sometimes doesn't lead to good results- it sometimes does (2nd Mover Advantage). They had a chance to re-think their whole approach and they got 10% of it right and i think they believe they had 80% of it correct (yrs 14-18) and they aren't even close.

    Here's an example: last year year at this time they had 5 or 6 options at 2nd base. 4 of them were pretty good and the other 2 were maybe's. A good FO would have prioritized and figured out what they were willing to live with. A good FO would understand the reason for putting player X at that position and figured out a way to support that player in achieving success. What did the Reds do? They put Gennett there and decided that was their plan -even to the point of putting their best prospect in CF. Every position card played was based on having Gennett playing 2nd. When that option went south they decided to patch it up and attempt to put off making a plan cause they didn't have one. They threw a new guy out there every 3 days wondering if he could learn the position while playing somewhere else. What did they find out? Gennett is now a maybe, Senzel may not play the position, Peraza's confidence is shot, Shed Long is with another team, Van Meter plays there once a week, DietRich is probably gone, Kyle Farmer - not sure how they view him... i'm probably forgetting somebody...ah yes, Freddy Galvis.... they were so limited in options, they picked up a guy off the waiver wire. That position says a lot about the organization and they're no closer to solving the problem than they were at this time last year.

    The team can recover and win. I'd feel a lot better if they made decisions based on a set of defining principles.

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  26. #300
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    The Astros also changed the nature of their minor league set up. They let go of many of the scouts that were employed and the scouts they retained became collectors of data. The data was then was analyzed back at the corporate office. I think they also started looking at their internal structure and what needed measured. They made a huge shift in the way they went and got talent and developed it. The Reds are 6-8 years behind - they are never out in front on anything.
    Their GM, his approach to the game (philosophy), is what impresses me. It's not simply about collecting data, numbers on a sheet, then from there it's just basic math and a little logic. It takes a lot of logic (LOL), one who possesses the mind (intellect) to sit down and interpret that data, and put it all together in a firm, strategic path. Direction. Luhnow knows what he is doing.

    I had to do a little research, but found this NYT's article I read a couple years ago on the Astros. Good read IMO.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/15/s...tros-alcs.html

    The Astros had picked first in the draft that June, and would do so again in each of the next two seasons. Those No. 1 picks — the good and the bad — help shape the story of today’s Astros ...I n 2012, the Astros used the first pick to choose Carlos Correa, now their superstar shortstop, who homered and doubled in the winning run in Game 2 on Saturday. But in 2013, they chose Mark Appel, a Stanford right-hander who has not appeared in the majors. In 2014, they took a high school pitcher, Brady Aiken, who turned out to be injured.

    In a way, those picks illustrate the finicky nature of baseball prospects. In a typical collection of three, one will blossom, one will fade and one will get hurt. The difference is the Astros knew when to bail on the two busts and how to salvage value from them.
    Here's what impressed me about Luhnow's philosophy, approach to prospects ....

    Treating a No. 1 overall pick as just another player is not easy.

    “You want so desperately for that to work out, to validate all the people involved in making that decision,” said Luhnow, who holds a master’s degree in business administration from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern. “But there’s a concept in business school called ‘forget sunk costs,’ an economic concept that if things change, you can’t continue to invest in that outcome improving if it’s not going to get better. There’s certain times you just have to change your strategy. We did that in both cases.”
    Know when to hold them, know when to fold them. Look at the example of P Appel, their #1 draft pick in '13. You don't trade your top prospects away? Two years later they did with Appel, in a 5 player deal, for closer Giles. Appel ended up having elbow surgery and has been a bust.

    You can call them #1 draft picks, top prospects, whatever, and think that really means something .... but until they show (prove) they're worthy of that tag ... they're just another ballplayer.

    And Luhnow has built this team by utilizing his farm system to it's fullest potential. If the deal is there, it fits the plan, fills a direct need, then he has no problem trading prospects.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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