One Year Ago: What's better, what's worse?

[Big Klu]

Jose Iglesias is an eye-opener defensively at SS in the same way that Scott Rolen was at 3B ten years ago. It's almost like we thought we knew what a major-league SS (or 3B) looked like, until one actually came along and blew away our previous perceptions.

[Bunting Bad]

We don't have to watch Homer Bailey take the mound every fifth day. Addition by subtraction.

[mamell]

I didn't watch many games last year since I live out of the area, but this year I've splurged for mlb.tv ..Last year I had to read up on them everyday.
Pitching is by far the biggest improvement while hitting (at least during long stretches this season was terrible). Had the hitting kept pace early on we'd have been in first place and never let up, but that didn't happen. Now we at least have a shot whereas last year we were already out of contention. Defensively were among the best overall teams in the league. LOOK IT UP you naysayers..Are they perfect? Absolutely not, no team is, but I'll take our defense any day over 90% of the league right now. Puig, while his bat hasn't been much most of the season brings his arm in RF keeping nearly every base runner on 3rd base, he can swipe bases with the best of them and he busts his ass down the line on routine ground balls. I'd prefer him to be hitting a lot better, but what he lacks there he makes up for in pure effort on so many plays..

[Red Buckeye]

I know baseball is a long season and I probably shouldn't cherry pick certain parts of a season, but I really don't consider the April 19 Reds the same as the May19-June 22nd Reds. If someone just looked at offensive stats for the whole year they'd see a team that can't score. But those of us that have followed the Reds know the offense wasn't as bad as the first month was. There was no way they'd keep.stinking it up. Votto is crushing it again, and the offense as a whole is gelling.
You guys are better statwatchers then me, but what I see is a team with swag. I actually think Puig and Dietrich have brought an attitude to this team we haven't seen in years. That is a big difference.

Also, again without looking, is Castillo even better then last year? I feel 100% confident they will win everytime he is on the mound.

Lastly, we have Bell instead of Price/Riggleman.

And the most obvious and most important is the W/L record..So simple but the best evidence they are vastly improved.

[Kc61]

It’s all about the pitching and Derek Johnson.

The offense has changed it’s emphasis, OBP is down, SLG is up, but scoring is about the same. Reds have produced only slightly more runs in 2019, 4.38 to 4.29 per game.

Team defense is generally about the same, you gain an Iglesias, but you lose Hamilton/Duvall. Fangraphs Def Reds 15th in MLB, last year 19th.

The pitching changes have been transformational. And while the pitching personnel is improved, the uptick in results is so significant that huge credit must go to Derek Johnson.

[mamell]

It’s all about the pitching and Derek Johnson.

The offense has changed it’s emphasis, OPB is down, SLG is up, but scoring is about the same. Reds have produced only slightly more runs in 2019, 4.38 to 4.29 per game.

Team defense is generally about the same, you gain an Iglesias, but you lose Hamilton/Duvall. Fangraphs Def Reds 15th in MLB, last year 19th.

The pitching changes have been transformational. And while the pitching personnel is improved, the uptick in results is so significant that huge credit must go to Derek Johnson.

Say what you want about fielding, but the fact remains the Red's fielding percentage is 2nd best in the NL and 4th best in all of MLB.. Last year they were 7th and 15th respectively.. http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.js...ys=&extended=0
Is anyone going to say Iglesias isn't a hell of an improvement at SS? Puig is a liability in RF? Even Barnhart is ranked 6th best behind the plate. That ain't nothing kiddies. Even among the pitching staff only Lorenzen and Gray have fielding %'s under 1.000.. Just hidden little stats, but they still count.

[Cooper]

Better: Bell is way beyond Price/Riggleman in his knowledge of sabermetrics. Bell keeps the team in games and gives them a chance -much more aware of the strengths/limitations of players.

Hiring Derek Johnson (most valuable hire?).

The GM (Krall, Williams, whoever is doing the bidding) has done a nice job of upgrading or maintaining the same level of production wrt to almost every position and on the pitching staff. That's really hard to get done and they did it. Kind of reminds me of the 1961 Reds - they made about 5 changes in the everyday lineup and they all worked out very well.

Ownership committing to attempt to win.

Worse: the minor league system's best producers are everyday players with high BABIP driven production. There are some everyday players that are holding their own, but no one comes to mind -save for Senzel- who has made a major jump. There are those who are maintaining (Stephenson, India, Fairchild ... has anyone taken a decent leap forward?).

[TommyJ]

Our two best positions players to date were signed this offseason on minor league deals. That's pretty incredible.

Development of young pitching. Garrett, Lorenzen, Mahle, Stephenson, and Castillo are all significantly better than they were last year- all their FIPs have improved ~.5 or more. Pair them with Gray and Iglesias and you have a really solid pitching core to build around. If we can acquire a frontline starter to pair with Castillo this offseason then look tf out.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm not sure if WAR is the best way to go about determining the difference. I suspect the narrative is most helpful. Still, it's a blunt instrument.

The Starting Staff
Castillo is now arguably an ace. Last year, he struggled pretty much the entire first half of the season. Castillo's 2019 first half has already doubled his entire season's worth of 2018 bWAR. His first half bWAR was barely above replacement level. This year? 3.2 bWAR.

Tyler Mahle has limited base-runners at a much higher rate. He's improved his bWAR from last year by about half a win.

DeSclafani is a much better, healthier pitcher. He replaced his own 2018 June version, Finnegan and 2018 starter Cody Reed, who put up less than replacement level production between them: - 1.3 bWAR in the first half of the season. This year, he's earned 1.0 bWAR.

The biggest difference, though, is Williams' acquisitions Roark and Gray supplanting Romano and Bailey. The latter duo combined for replacement level production of -1.4 bWAR (again, in half a season) with 2.8 bWAR. That's more than four wins of production in half a season.

Overall, this is by far the biggest difference in the two teams and works out to somewhere around 9 wins improvement.

Bullpen
Last year's bullpen was similar to this season. It could even be argued that those at the top of the 2018 'pen-- Hughes, Iglesias, Hernandez-- were (far) more effective last season. The difference is at the bottom of the bullpen. The depth-- and health-- of this season's crew is far, far better. There are no Yovani Gallardos and Kevin Quackenbushes to start fires or finish games... for the other team. Those middle and long relief arms have been replaced with Peralta, Duke (much better after a stint on the IL), Reed, and Bowman-- who've been replacement level as opposed to well below.

Starting Lineup
Iglesias is slightly better than Peraza's 2018. Senzel is better than Hamilton was at this point too. Dietrich and Gennett are pretty much equal.

Everyone else is worse. In some cases, far worse.

The biggest culprit is Eugenio Suarez, who put up MVP numbers in the first half last year and has struggled to a 0.6 bWAR so far this season.

Close behind him is Tucker Barnhart, who's gone from fair to abhorrent. Gosh, who could have forecast that the Reds would have needed a better option?-- oh, wait. That's right. I did. Often. Sigh.

Everyone else is slightly worse than the numbers put up last season. (Kemp's ridiculously bad April drags LF a great deal.)

Bench
Depth is so, so important. Last year's bench produced -1.6 bWAR on the season.

Ick.

This year's group? 0.4 production overall. And that's with Kemp's -0.9 bWAR.

That's a two-win difference.

More importantly, how screwed would the Reds be if they didn't have Dietrich, Casali, or Farmer this year?

[JCM11]

The biggest improvements have been in the starting rotation and the bench. Having legitimate major leaguers 1-25 on the roster has made a big difference.

[Kc61]

Say what you want about fielding, but the fact remains the Red's fielding percentage is 2nd best in the NL and 4th best in all of MLB.. Last year they were 7th and 15th respectively.. http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.js...ys=&extended=0
Is anyone going to say Iglesias isn't a hell of an improvement at SS? Puig is a liability in RF? Even Barnhart is ranked 6th best behind the plate. That ain't nothing kiddies. Even among the pitching staff only Lorenzen and Gray have fielding %'s under 1.000.. Just hidden little stats, but they still count.

Fielding percentage reflects that Reds have made second fewest errors in NL, which is great. It’s an improvement particularly at shortstop and third base where Suarez had an off-year defensively in 2018. No disagreement.

But the advanced defensive stats are more mixed. Reds are third in DRS in NL, but are ninth in UZR and seventh in Fangraphs Def in NL. The non-tender of Hamilton is certainly a factor, he was the best defender on the team at a premium position.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Fielding percentage reflects that Reds have made second fewest errors in NL, which is great. It’s an improvement particularly at shortstop and third base where Suarez had an off-year defensively in 2018. No disagreement.

But the advanced defensive stats are more mixed. Reds are third in DRS in NL, but are ninth in UZR and seventh in Fangraphs Def in NL. The non-tender of Hamilton is certainly a factor, he was the best defender on the team.

What's mixed about improvement?

Last season, the Reds' defense was below each of those marks in each of those statistics.

This season's defense, despite massive protestations from a variety of posters, is better than last year's defense.

(Even if defense is incredibly overrated.)

[Kc61]

What's mixed about improvement?

Last season, the Reds' defense was below each of those marks in each of those statistics.

This season's defense, despite massive protestations from a variety of posters, is better than last year's defense.

(Even if defense is incredibly overrated.)

The advanced stats are mixed. DRS is materially better than the others. That’s mixed.

[GAC]

The biggest improvements have been in the starting rotation and the bench. Having legitimate major leaguers 1-25 on the roster has made a big difference.

Big kudos to what they've done with the bench this year. Huge upgrade.

[wlf WV]

The front office actually seemed serious about winning this year. I haven’t felt that for years , most years it’s just fan optimism that fueled some hope.