Tracking the Reds tough schedule until the trade deadline

[REDREAD]

So here's the next 42 games for the Reds.. A pretty brutal schedule through the trade deadline.
I'm guessing this part of the year is going to either put us into contention or bury us. I see only 6 easy
games. As of today, we are 5 behind the Cubs and Brewers. I figure to have a chance to win the division, we
are going to have to go at least 24-18.. Maybe even better, since there's two teams ahead of us. Maybe, just maybe that prods the front office to get us some relief pitching at the deadline. Maybe not.. but that record
likely at least keeps us relevant.. If we only go 500 (21-21), most likely, either Chicago or Milwaukee widens the gap. So I'm going to use this thread to track our progress.. Comments are welcome. Hopefully we see progress up the standings

Note: I realize that technically, the Aug 1 game is after the deadline, but I didn't want to chop a series off.

Jun 14-16 : 3 at Brewers
Jun 17-20: 4 at Padres
Jun 21-22: 2 at Twins (hopefully easy)
Jun 23: off day
Jun 24-27: 4 vs Braves at home
Jun 28: 1 vs Phillies at home (hopefully easy)
Jun 29- Jul 1: 3 vs Padres at home
July 2- Jul 4: 3 at home vs Cubs
July 5 - Jul 7 : 3 at Royals (hopefully easy)
July 8- Jul 11: 4 at Brewers
All star break
July 16-18: 3 at home vs Brewers
July 19-21: 3 vs Mets at home
July 23-25: 3 at home vs Cardinals
July 26-28: 3 at Cubs
July 30- Aug 1: 3 at Mets

[WildcatFan]

Good lord, I hadn't realized how nasty that stretch is. I hope a .500 record or whatever through there wouldn't keep them from acquiring bullpen arms. August has 13 games against Pittsburgh, Miami, and Minnesota, and a standings-chipping series against both Milwaukee and Chicago. Could be a fruitful month.

[klw]

19 games vs the Division rivals. If they can't win those then they have no business pretending.

mlbtraderumors has a piece on this today

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...-decision.html

It’s possible the team will just define itself one way or another in the coming weeks. They still have 40 games to play before the July 30 deadline. If they go 25-15, they’d look like legitimate division contenders. A 15-25 swoon would make them an obvious seller. But what if Cincinnati plays .500 ball over the next month and a half- as they have so far and as the projections expect them to the rest of the way? The Reds would still be a long shot at that point, with playoff odds likely a bit lower than they are now (since they’d have even less time to make up ground on the teams in front of them). But they wouldn’t be completely out of contention, and selling at the deadline would be a tough sell to the fanbase.

[redsfan9988]

This series with Milwaukee is key. It seems we’ll miss Burnes and Woodruff again - although that didn’t seem to help last time. I maintain the the Brewers are a sleeper WS team and solid play at 22/1 - no disrespect to the Cubs - this is the team to beat.... actually... lots of disrespect to the Cubs.

As for the stretch leading to the deadline - it all comes down to the starting pitching. We know what our lineup is at this point. Adding Moose might help, but I’m not really sure where he’s going to play. I envision Barrero coming up at some point during this stretch as well. We also know what our bullpen is. It might improve a bit, but it’s bot going to be suddenly good or even suddenly-just-a-little-below-average. So... can we get 6-7 innings a night from Mahle, Miley, and Castillo? Can Gray come back and be effective? Would we consider using Gray out of the bullpen? Can Santillan and Gutierrez get guys out after the league has seen them?

BTW... made my World Series bets at Caesars today:

$100 on MIL at 22/1 - pays $2200
$50 on CIN at 75/1 - pays $3750
$50 on LAD at 3.5/1 - pays $175 - hedge to recover losses

Do we like these wagers?

[Bob Sheed]

Brewers are like 15-5 in their last 20 games.

They are due for a correction.

[Kc61]

I thought June was tough overall but Reds have acquitted themselves well so far. The sweep in St Louis was a happy surprise.

The next seven road games against Brewers and Padres obviously are a hurdle.

Reds are 16-15 away from home, I wouldn’t have guessed them over .500 away, so hoping they can stay afloat there. Let’s call it an important road trip, nine games altogether including Minnesota. Would be happy with 5-4 or better.

[REDREAD]

Brewers are like 15-5 in their last 20 games.

They are due for a correction.

Not so sure about that. They are looking like the strongest team in the division.

[Kc61]

Not so sure about that. They are looking like the strongest team in the division.

Yeah, Brewers win with pitching and defense, Reds with hitting. I’d prefer Milwaukee’s formula, yet nobody in this division has it all, no locks here.

Brewers are 9-1 and Reds 8-2 over last ten games. Couldn’t ask for hotter teams matching up.

Brewers are not an incredible home team, only 20-15 (still good), have a better record away. So winning in Milwaukee is quite achievable for Reds.

[TexasRedsFan]

Interesting that we play the Brewers both right before and immediately after the ASB. 7 straight games against one opponent. Don't recall ever seeing scheduling like that before.

That 11 day stretch in itself may well decide which direction we go. Gotta start establishing themselves against Milwaukee tonight.

[NeilHamburger]

Meanwhile 10 of the Brewers next 13 games are against the Diamondbacks and Rockies. If the Brewers take 2 of 3 from cincy I could see them winning 8 of 10 against those scrubs and really opening up a lead the reds couldn't catch.

[Strikes Out Looking]

If they can go 4-5 on this road trip, I'd consider that a success - even better if it's 3-4 in the next 7.

[redsfan9988]

If they can go 4-5 on this road trip, I'd consider that a success - even better if it's 3-4 in the next 7.

This is my thinking. Come off a tough trip (and a poorly scheduled one) at .500 heading home.

2 of 3 Against MIL, 1 of 4 in SD (who are actually playing quite poorly lately), and split in Minny.

I’m okay with that outlay.

[Rojo Rijo]

If they can go 4-5 on this road trip, I'd consider that a success - even better if it's 3-4 in the next 7.

I can't buy into that, this team needs to get scorching hot and win like 66%+ of their next months worth of games. The sweeps have been nice and helped a ton but they need a real hot streak to happen. Not saying they need to go 2002 A's but i'm also not not saying that.

[OGB]

Meanwhile 10 of the Brewers next 13 games are against the Diamondbacks and Rockies. If the Brewers take 2 of 3 from cincy I could see them winning 8 of 10 against those scrubs and really opening up a lead the reds couldn't catch.

The Dbacks went 5-1 against the Reds and are 15-45 against the rest of MLB.

It's insane to think that not going 5-1, 4-2, or even .500 against the worst team in baseball could end up costing the Reds the playoffs

[Kc61]

The Dbacks went 5-1 against the Reds and are 15-45 against the rest of MLB.

It's insane to think that not going 5-1, 4-2, or even .500 against the worst team in baseball could end up costing the Reds the playoffs

Not insane, always a factor. W-L record isn’t the complete story. Have they beaten up on the bad teams? How many games remain against top teams? These are always important questions.

In Reds’ case, they did win something back with the four-game road sweep of the Cards. That helps compensate for the DBacks losses. Not that Cards are great, but most of Reds’ competitors aren’t sweeping them four in St. Louis.

If Reds could go 4-3 now against Brewers and Pads on the road, or better, that would compensate as well.