Correct. From Fangraphs:
https://library.fangraphs.com/princi...ns-and-losses/Teams whose real winning percentages exceed their expected winning percentages are often referred to as ‘lucky’, and team who do the opposite are ‘unlucky’. This is a crutch, and it’s far from statistically rigorous. We should not pretend to be able to extract true talent level from two variables alone, and it’s clear that ‘luck’ strikes far more deeply than in simple runs scored and runs allowed in a season. A team with an expected winning percentage of .500 and an actual record of 77-85 is not ‘really’ an 81-win team