Drew Stubbs: What if?

[Brutus]

I hear this assertion made somewhat regularly, but do we have evidence that Stubbs finds himself in more 0-1 counts than the average hitter?

And I don't quite get the pitch recognition thing. Of 144 qualified hitters, he swings the 23rd least. But on pitches out of the zone he's 16th, while for pitches in the zone he's 36th least. His swing profile is similar to Dustin Pedroia. Every hitter takes bad swings and good pitches from time to time; I'm not sure we have reason to believe Stubbs particularly struggles in this area.

I agree that an 0-1 count is more dangerous for him than other hitters, but I think it's almost entirely because of his relative inability to make contact on every type of pitch.

FWIW, looking at his career stats, he winds up in an 0-1 count on the first pitch about 51.3% of the time. The NL average this year is 49%. Those numbers include putting the ball in play on the first pitch. So he is, statistically, a little below average in getting behind in the count.

[Kc61]

Thats an interesting way to look at it. Does the swing % in and out of the zone mean anything by themselves or does the ratio between the two tell us about pitch recognition? I could go to the plate with a blindfold and swing once every five pitches to get a low outside the zone swing percentage.

Well, Stubbs swings this year 21.6% of the time on pitches outside the zone. He swings 60.2% of the time on pitches in the zone. So he certainly has some idea of the difference. He swings three times more often on pitches in the zone.

Fangraphs says the average swing percentage outside the zone is 30%. So Drew swings much less frequently than average outside the zone. Good thing.

Fangraphs also says the average swing percentage in the zone is 65%. So Drew swings a bit less frequently than average in the zone. A slight negative.

These numbers are quite good. They show a hitter who is fairly patient, but more so on bad pitches. Just looking at these swing stats, you'd see a patient hitter who sees the difference between good pitches and bad.

Then you get to the actual contact rates and the problems become more apparent. The contact stats are poor, but even those stats aren't THAT bad.

It's the classic case of a guy who strikes out too much, and rises or falls by how he compensates when he DOES hit the ball. In Stubbs' case, not well enough.

[oregonred]

Uncle!!!

[RedsManRick]

Thats an interesting way to look at it. Does the swing % in and out of the zone mean anything by themselves or does the ratio between the two tell us about pitch recognition? I could go to the plate with a blindfold and swing once every five pitches to get a low outside the zone swing percentage.

I'd say both. Firstly, he swings less than most hitters, period. That's worth noting.

But to your point, I think the ratio is important as well. Stubbs has the 17th highest Zone to Out of Zone swing rate in baseball.

Does Stubbs watch a lot of good pitches in the zone? Maybe. But that comes with the territory of being a patient hitter overall. The list of guys at the of that list is fascinating.

	Name			Z:O	Swing%
1	Alberto Callaspo	3.05	39.2%
2	Dexter Fowler		2.92	42.6%
3	Dan Uggla		2.89	43.0%
4	Rickie Weeks		2.87	40.4%
5	Josh Willingham		2.83	40.5%
6	Carlos Santana		2.80	39.4%
7	Adam Dunn		2.76	40.8%
8	Shin-Soo Choo		2.75	42.6%
9	David Wright		2.70	42.5%
10	Austin Jackson		2.70	42.3%
11	Michael Brantley	2.69	40.5%
12	Mark Reynolds		2.68	43.4%
13	Nick Swisher		2.67	42.2%
14	Jay Bruce		2.65	47.3%
15	Andrew McCutchen	2.65	46.8%
16	Edwin Encarnacion	2.61	41.9%
17	Drew Stubbs		2.61	41.2%
18	Michael Bourn		2.59	41.4%
19	Coco Crisp		2.58	42.5%
20	Ian Kinsler		2.58	43.6%

Notably, there's a lot of power on that list. I have no idea what to make of it, but generally speaking I think it's fair to say that Stubbs approach to when he swings is not his problem. It's what happens when he swings. You can be on this list and be a high contact guy like Callaspo or Choo. Or you can be a low contact guy like Dunn, Uggla or Austin Jackson. There are many ways to be successful at the plate. But swinging and missing a lot while not doing a lot of damage when you do connect is not among them.

Stubbs either needs to do more damage when he connects or he needs to connect much more often. I'm among those who don't think the latter is really possible.