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What's the average age of a MLB rookie? What's the average age of a player's last season? If your prime years are 27-33, and the average age of a rookie is 24, then basically you are comparing age 24-27 to 34-37.Quote:
Originally Posted by WrongVerb
ish. mostly just guessing there.
I don't mind at all the Reds paying a great player into his 30's. I think Votto, for example, will more than earn his contract.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
To get Jocketty or Williams to admit it was a salary dump would be a neat trick. Hopefully the Reds will be able to get a better haul with the Bruce trade...
Since 2000, outfielders from ages 30 - 35.
Bruce has the talent and pedigree to fall in with a lot of those guys really. Again, outside of injury you're looking at a guy that can probably OBP at .320+ and hit 25+ bombs for the next 5 or so years. I'm sorry but unless you're getting a premium prospect back there's no real reason to move him. Especially with 14/15 to leverage in contract negotiations.
I mean if you assume a win is worth about $8m to the market (according to Fangraphs right now) you could probably make the argument that Bruce will end up worth about 80m from 30-35. I don't mind a contract around there for him if there's no significant offers for him (but I'm willing to bet he'd sign for less).
Also...
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-an...nd-adam-jones/
A little mention about Bruce in the bottom.
Giants are exploring Braun:
Quote:
With Hunter Pence on the disabled list due to a torn hamstring, the Giants are “looking everywhere” for another outfielder, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). To that end, they’ve had preliminary discussions with the Brewers about Ryan Braun, according to Nightengale, though he also cautions that there’s nothing imminent between the two teams.
We think the Giants don't have enough prospect for Bruce. Can't imagine they have the pieces to bring in Braun.Quote:
Originally Posted by WrongVerb
I would not for one second think about signing Bruce long term. I like him -he's been a good Red. I think he'd give you 2 more good offensive seasons. At that point, you have to move him to 1st base and that's not going to work on this team. After this year -if the defensive numbers are correct and I'm still not sure about that.....i think he's give you 7 WAR for rest of career.
He's owed 72 million more plus a 4 million buyout, maybe they take on some of that tooQuote:
Originally Posted by PuffyPig
I'd rather have Bruce than Braun.Quote:
Originally Posted by PuffyPig
Bruce is two yrs younger and Braun is still owed about 80MM on his contract.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...g-trade-assets
Well according to fangraphs Bruce is at -.2 war so that negates your argument that he will worth 80 million from 30-35.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon
I do not think that Bruce at 1b works for any team.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooper
I really appreciate Bruce trying to play 1b when he was asked, but he simply can not do it. It would take a tremendous amount of work to make him a passable 1b.
And if he is tentative about diving for balls in the OF (as speculated due to his injury) , how is he going to dive on the infield?
The team that gets Bruce can use him as a corner OF or DH.. that is pretty much it, IMO.
How is he any worse in LF than others we've stuck out there over the past 10-15 seasons!Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooper
I guess it depends on whether you think Braun is more of a game changer than Bruce.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Madden
Braun is likely the better bet going forward to continue hitting.
But you might be right.
Bruce has to be one of the most underappreciated players this team has ever had.
Can we not go there? The past 2 years he was a below average hitter (out of all batters). (Please don't anyone cue up the XBH counting stat.) That doesn't cut it for a RF, on top of the fact that more people than not question his defense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon
Most of us loved his play up until 2014.
The only disappointment about Bruce is that he had a bad injury headed into the prime of his career that sucked the production from his game for a significant period of time. It's not like one day he decided to be bad or something.
So, until he got hurt?Quote:
Originally Posted by kaldaniels
Here's a good recent thread on Bruce's defense. It includes a fairly thorough discussion of the impact Billy might have had on Bruce's UZR.
His UZR is massively deflated right now anyway...unless of course you actually believe he's the worst OF of all time this year (he isn't, and even if you don't trust the eye test it only takes a quick watch of some really bad outfielders to see that). As Bruce gets more comfortable I'm sure that'll come down. He's not an awful fielder, and more than passable in RF or LF with his bat.
Has Bruce's defensive stats improved at least twice since the Nationals series?
In Richard Justice's list of ten players who could be traded, he calls Bruce a "solid defensive outfielder". Interesting.
IIRC Richard Justice is an avg/HR/RBI guy. I highly doubt he looks at defensive stats. Most likely he knows Jay Bruce was a good defender when he was 22, so he will be a good defensive player for the rest of his life.Quote:
Originally Posted by marcshoe
I thought it was interesting that he made the statement flat-out, with no seeming thought of being contradicted.
I got 99 problems but Bruce's defense as it relates to trade value ain't one.
Maybe he could win a gold glove at DH.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
Ha! I said this before clicking on the link and sure enough Justice has the AVG/HR/RBI listed undernearth every offensive player on the list.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Well I'm really glad that now that we are a few years out, we want to trade Bruce who certainly looks like the better hitter than Joey Votto because Votto is tied into a bad contract; so we're just forced to give away Bruce for some terrible lot of tiered prospects who really aren't going to probably amount to anything if we're honest.
The scouts were right. Bruce is a better bat than Votto, right now in 2016. It hasn't always been that way but its the reality of now. Votto looks cooked and Bruce is a solid slugger that now healthy is again one of the top offensive players in the game. If you're going to tell me that because of WAR and defense that he's less valuable than Billy Hamilton and Kike Hernandez then I'm going to tell you how poor of a stat WAR is. Second time in a calendar week bruce's bat alone won the Reds the game; so theres two wins right there. Really silly stat at times.
All the stars we traded away and the reality is what did we really get back? Adam Duvall, okay I'll take that. Good player, good bat so far (will be crucified for bad defense in due time and poor walk rate). Nothing else we received is really going to amount to much of anything if we're honest with ourselves. Peraza is a total flea and always will be, even in our bandbox.
So yes lets move Bruce for Bubba Starling... brutal. Brutal organization, too for even having the thought of not keeping the guy now that he's clearly again one of the top offensive players in the game.
http://2new4.fjcdn.com/gifs/Simpsons_0aeab6_5574957.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990
There's the Redzone snark reply we all have come to know so well!Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
How did we go from Ben Greive II to better than Joey Votto?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990
Your takes on Bruce have me totally befuddled and I kindly ask you to explain.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
The reason Votto is better is that when he sucks, as you say, his OPS is .803. In 2013, Bruce last full good season, his OPS was .807.
I love Bruce and hate to see him go, but he doesn't really fit the future unless he'd sign a short deal. If the Reds can't find a deal, I'd be perfectly happy invoking the option and trying again over the winter or next season or even extending him for 3 years at say $45 to 50 Million or so (in lieu of the option, not tacked on after), but Bruce is in a place where he's going to want 5 years for something north of $75 Million, and I just don't think the Reds should do that.
Given all scenarios, a trade would seem to be the best thing for both Bruce and the Reds, but I don't see the team receiving a core player back. If they can get a couple guys who help the bench and the pen for cheap that's something to consider IMO. I'd love to nab Frazier from Cleveland or a promising young SS of the future, but I just don't see teams paying it.
Votto looks cooked?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990
Votto had a horrible April. Since May 1st he has a 900 OPS (386/514)
But sure, he's "cooked"
Okay I'm one of Bruce's biggest fans and he's not a better hitter than Votto (though this is hardly earthshattering insight).
I would be fine giving Bruce a 5-6 year, 75-90m contract. It's actually perfect because he'll be worth that much over that time, and then you get only his, most likely, productive seasons. It also means there's a guy that can step in at 1B if Votto falls off a cliff in say 2-3 years (he is going to be 33 after all) and on top of it how many bats do we really have coming up for RF/LF that are going to be able to replace Bruce's production anyway? So unless we're trading for someone who can be an impact bat in the next 2-3 years there's really no reason to trade Bruce. His defensive deficiencies are, in my opinion, vastly overstated and he is passable in RF especially when you compare him to most other players that occupy that position.
But look at this list, and tell me how many RFs you'd really rather have, or how many of those guys legitimately are better defensively than Bruce. I don't buy it.
I hear you, but the problem I have with these "worth" calculations is that they are skewed. Bruce may earn $75 million but its likely in the first 3 years. Those last two years will be ugly. I don't buy into it. I don't think they should sign a guy to a deal unless they think he will earn his pay in each individual season of the contract. I hate the overpaid years at the end. A Small Market just can't get away with it. Maybe a guy or two who are chosen to be face of the Franchise guys (Votto in the Reds case, Barry Larkin generations ago), but they can't use that math as a general rule. So, if they can't get a short deal, like the last one Bruce signed or the one they had Cueto on, they need to look to move these guys IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon
Let's say Bruce is a 25 win WAR at end of age 30 season (I personally think that's giving him a lot of credit, but without proprietary info the club may have we just can't be sure what his defense is valued at. I think we can say it's one down hill--too many different models point to that- but .....anyways....
He might be worth 8 WINS -maybe 10 the rest of the way. I think 75-90 million for 5 years would not work out unless you:
1. Factor in increasing salaries. They are getting higher, thus making the cost of 1 WAR win higher. Right now I think 1 WAR win is valued at about 7 million, but there are other guys better informed than I re: those figures.
2. There are opportunity costs to be figured in. You lose the value of putting a better performing player in his position and those are costs associated with that. If Schebler can give you 95% of his value for 5% of the cost- you may want to spend that money else where.
3. If he moves to 1st you have to make a positional adjustment that decreases his value.
4. If you are a small market team - you gotta hit about 90% on who you give big contracts to ....good chance that Bruce is out of the league by age 33 (unless he becomes a DH are vastly changes his diet....i'm going to say it ....he's too heavy and imho he looks as if he has a back injury but I ain't no doctor).
2.
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/.../729/large.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990
"But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Is that infamous quote from Ghosts of 1990?Quote:
Originally Posted by Raisor
What the hell did I just read?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990