Royals interested in Bruce?

[Wonderful Monds]

[mth123]

The reason Votto is better is that when he sucks, as you say, his OPS is .803. In 2013, Bruce last full good season, his OPS was .807.

I love Bruce and hate to see him go, but he doesn't really fit the future unless he'd sign a short deal. If the Reds can't find a deal, I'd be perfectly happy invoking the option and trying again over the winter or next season or even extending him for 3 years at say $45 to 50 Million or so (in lieu of the option, not tacked on after), but Bruce is in a place where he's going to want 5 years for something north of $75 Million, and I just don't think the Reds should do that.

Given all scenarios, a trade would seem to be the best thing for both Bruce and the Reds, but I don't see the team receiving a core player back. If they can get a couple guys who help the bench and the pen for cheap that's something to consider IMO. I'd love to nab Frazier from Cleveland or a promising young SS of the future, but I just don't see teams paying it.

[Raisor]

Well I'm really glad that now that we are a few years out, we want to trade Bruce who certainly looks like the better hitter than Joey Votto because Votto is tied into a bad contract; so we're just forced to give away Bruce for some terrible lot of tiered prospects who really aren't going to probably amount to anything if we're honest.

The scouts were right. Bruce is a better bat than Votto, right now in 2016. It hasn't always been that way but its the reality of now. Votto looks cooked and Bruce is a solid slugger that now healthy is again one of the top offensive players in the game.

Votto looks cooked?

Votto had a horrible April. Since May 1st he has a 900 OPS (386/514)

But sure, he's "cooked"

[Cannon]

Okay I'm one of Bruce's biggest fans and he's not a better hitter than Votto (though this is hardly earthshattering insight).

I would be fine giving Bruce a 5-6 year, 75-90m contract. It's actually perfect because he'll be worth that much over that time, and then you get only his, most likely, productive seasons. It also means there's a guy that can step in at 1B if Votto falls off a cliff in say 2-3 years (he is going to be 33 after all) and on top of it how many bats do we really have coming up for RF/LF that are going to be able to replace Bruce's production anyway? So unless we're trading for someone who can be an impact bat in the next 2-3 years there's really no reason to trade Bruce. His defensive deficiencies are, in my opinion, vastly overstated and he is passable in RF especially when you compare him to most other players that occupy that position.

But look at this list, and tell me how many RFs you'd really rather have, or how many of those guys legitimately are better defensively than Bruce. I don't buy it.

[mth123]

Okay I'm one of Bruce's biggest fans and he's not a better hitter than Votto (though this is hardly earthshattering insight).

I would be fine giving Bruce a 5-6 year, 75-90m contract. It's actually perfect because he'll be worth that much over that time, and then you get only his, most likely, productive seasons. It also means there's a guy that can step in at 1B if Votto falls off a cliff in say 2-3 years (he is going to be 33 after all) and on top of it how many bats do we really have coming up for RF/LF that are going to be able to replace Bruce's production anyway? So unless we're trading for someone who can be an impact bat in the next 2-3 years there's really no reason to trade Bruce. His defensive deficiencies are, in my opinion, vastly overstated and he is passable in RF especially when you compare him to most other players that occupy that position.

I hear you, but the problem I have with these "worth" calculations is that they are skewed. Bruce may earn $75 million but its likely in the first 3 years. Those last two years will be ugly. I don't buy into it. I don't think they should sign a guy to a deal unless they think he will earn his pay in each individual season of the contract. I hate the overpaid years at the end. A Small Market just can't get away with it. Maybe a guy or two who are chosen to be face of the Franchise guys (Votto in the Reds case, Barry Larkin generations ago), but they can't use that math as a general rule. So, if they can't get a short deal, like the last one Bruce signed or the one they had Cueto on, they need to look to move these guys IMO.

[Cooper]

Let's say Bruce is a 25 win WAR at end of age 30 season (I personally think that's giving him a lot of credit, but without proprietary info the club may have we just can't be sure what his defense is valued at. I think we can say it's one down hill--too many different models point to that- but .....anyways....

He might be worth 8 WINS -maybe 10 the rest of the way. I think 75-90 million for 5 years would not work out unless you:

1. Factor in increasing salaries. They are getting higher, thus making the cost of 1 WAR win higher. Right now I think 1 WAR win is valued at about 7 million, but there are other guys better informed than I re: those figures.

2. There are opportunity costs to be figured in. You lose the value of putting a better performing player in his position and those are costs associated with that. If Schebler can give you 95% of his value for 5% of the cost- you may want to spend that money else where.

3. If he moves to 1st you have to make a positional adjustment that decreases his value.

4. If you are a small market team - you gotta hit about 90% on who you give big contracts to ....good chance that Bruce is out of the league by age 33 (unless he becomes a DH are vastly changes his diet....i'm going to say it ....he's too heavy and imho he looks as if he has a back injury but I ain't no doctor).
2.

[RedTeamGo!]

The scouts were right. Bruce is a better bat than Votto, right now in 2016. It hasn't always been that way but its the reality of now. Votto looks cooked

[Raisor]

"But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

[RedTeamGo!]

"But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

Is that infamous quote from Ghosts of 1990?

[CySeymour]

Well I'm really glad that now that we are a few years out, we want to trade Bruce who certainly looks like the better hitter than Joey Votto because Votto is tied into a bad contract; so we're just forced to give away Bruce for some terrible lot of tiered prospects who really aren't going to probably amount to anything if we're honest.

The scouts were right. Bruce is a better bat than Votto, right now in 2016. It hasn't always been that way but its the reality of now. Votto looks cooked and Bruce is a solid slugger that now healthy is again one of the top offensive players in the game. If you're going to tell me that because of WAR and defense that he's less valuable than Billy Hamilton and Kike Hernandez then I'm going to tell you how poor of a stat WAR is. Second time in a calendar week bruce's bat alone won the Reds the game; so theres two wins right there. Really silly stat at times.

All the stars we traded away and the reality is what did we really get back? Adam Duvall, okay I'll take that. Good player, good bat so far (will be crucified for bad defense in due time and poor walk rate). Nothing else we received is really going to amount to much of anything if we're honest with ourselves. Peraza is a total flea and always will be, even in our bandbox.

So yes lets move Bruce for Bubba Starling... brutal. Brutal organization, too for even having the thought of not keeping the guy now that he's clearly again one of the top offensive players in the game.

What the hell did I just read?

[Raisor]

Is that infamous quote from Ghosts of 1990?

Correct

[Tom Servo]

How did we go from Ben Greive II to better than Joey Votto?

Your takes on Bruce have me totally befuddled and I kindly ask you to explain.

4/23/11

Sigh, he's been terrible this year. He's hit about two line drives all year long. I don't care how many want to come into this thread and rip me, whatever. I'd love more than anything to say this kid is a player but he has regressed completely and totally since he was called up! Let's call a spade a spade, he was a more complete hitter, having better at bats, working counts, and using all fields when he was 21 years old.

Someone last year said it best--I am like the kid who got a new toy and now they're not happy with the new toy now that it's out of the box. That's exactly how I feel.

What is it about this kid and his nervous pervous nice guy approach in the box? Night in and night out he just doesn't get it done in big spots or his poorer performance is masked by a 1-4 in which he did some VERY bad things. He is Ben Grieve II. He will be no more than that as a Major Leaguer. Remember I said that.

5/25/2011

I just hope that he gets his fair share of All-Star votes

(I've already spent about 10 minutes on this and won't bother with 2012-2013, without looking it up I imagine it's just more of this)


4/19/14

Yet he's never posted a .900 OPS season and if you're honest with yourself he's never really hit for the average that any of us thought he would. Never a 40 homer season. Yeah, he's hit some home runs over 5 years time. Hasn't been the player we thought he would be though, I'll say that again.

5/7/15

He's thought about it, and he's not interested:

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spor...ophy/24630597/

The plan, Jay; has worked to a tune of .170 this season and what, .210 plus a nickel last year?

It's over. It's just, over. Sad but he's not coming back.

6/13/15

It's funny because; he's like not hitting again. His hot streaks are now two days and the cold streaks are as bad/worse than ever. I don't think he's going to really 'hit' like we are hoping. Last year and this year are real. Not sure why he's ruined, even with what has been discussed in the thread (stubbornness, the shift, etc.).

6/15/15

The last 10 games he's at a .639 OPS, .167 average. Take away the two homer Sunday and there's basically nothing there in ten games of substance.

Why we are putting so much on the last week, ten days or month on a guy who is going on two years being a .200 hitter now, I don't quite understand. There's a serious problem here unfortunately. It's not going away. I can't believe people are really just shrugging and saying "what he's fine".

7/19/15

Really hope they don't trade him; or if they do its a year from now. Give him another year to see if he's worthy of keeping around as a Matt Holliday type on our roster.

7/31/2015

On another note, is there ANY scenario that we just work out a long-term extension with Bruce and he remains a Red through his prime years? That was a possiblility not that long ago it seemed.

9/29/15

I Can't believe he is hitting .226

3/7/2016 RE: Re: Jay Bruce hopes swing tweak leads to more success in 2016

Spoiler alert: it won't/doesn't.

[Cannon]

He might be worth 8 WINS -maybe 10 the rest of the way. I think 75-90 million for 5 years would not work out unless you:

Why would he only be worth that much? Even if he were, right now a win is supposedly worth $8m on the market, that'll definitely go up over the next 5 years. I think 10 wins is a fairly conservative measure with his bat to be honest because I fully believe his defence is not nearly as bad as it's being made out to be. I think you look at his 2012 as the baseline for what he'll look like for the next 3-5 years. Probably won't have highly rated defence but his offence is enough to make up for it...a 2.5 WAR player is still a useful player especially with a guy like BHam or potentially Trammell manning CF.

2. There are opportunity costs to be figured in. You lose the value of putting a better performing player in his position and those are costs associated with that. If Schebler can give you 95% of his value for 5% of the cost- you may want to spend that money else where.

Where else are they going to be spending the money anyway? Most of the guys coming up are going to be cost controlled and Phillips is going to be coming off the books. There aren't a lot of guys that will be looking for huge paycheques from us in the near future so why not just give Bruce a decent contract until those guys will be looking for money?

3. If he moves to 1st you have to make a positional adjustment that decreases his value.

Not really. His defence will probably grade out a lot better at 1st than the numbers are implying at RF right now. Plus the adjustment is not a big one there anyway. He'd probably grade out the same if not a bit better.

4. If you are a small market team - you gotta hit about 90% on who you give big contracts to ....good chance that Bruce is out of the league by age 33 (unless he becomes a DH are vastly changes his diet....i'm going to say it ....he's too heavy and imho he looks as if he has a back injury but I ain't no doctor).

So Bruce is running the bases and hitting better than he has at any point in his career and you think that there's something wrong with him? If anything he's already started making health adjustments and it's showing. He's talked about it before. Out of the league? As long as he's hitting 25+ bombs and OBPing at .320+ there'll be room for him on someone's roster.

[westofyou]

Baseball Tourette's Syndrome is a serious thing, treat it today

[kbrake]

That's as solid a troll job as I've ever seen. Well done.