Blanton pitched 230 innings of sub-4.00 baseball last year. Allowed only 16 homers. Even if his ERA went to 4.30 or even 4.40 for the Reds, if he continued to pitch around 230 innings he would entirely change the pitching staff. When your team ERA is over 5, getting 230 innings below 4.5 will make a material difference in the team's season.
I would give up a lot for Blanton, although not Bruce and not Bailey. But I wouldn't let some kid's good High-A or AA performance stop me.
He might give up 25 or 30 homers in GABP. The Mets would probably do well to get him considering the ballpark, but they already have guys that are better than Blanton IMO.Originally Posted by Kc61
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
I tend to think the home/away split argument against Blanton is a little overblown. In '05 his ERA was .38 runs better at home. In '06 his ERA was .60 runs better at home. For some context Haren's ERA was .54 runs better at home than on the road as an Athletic. Now for the biggy-Blanton's '07 his ERA was 2.42 runs better at home. Basically Blanton's home/road splits have been greatly skewed by one wacky season.
His peripherals might not be inspiring but his home/road splits probably aren't the flag some might think they are....
Basically he's a guy who has GB tendencies, may have taken a step forward with his command, has shown an above average ability to churning up innings, and would be expected to get a bounce by changing leagues. Given that GABP isn't so much a hitter's environment as it excessively rewards flyballs there is reason to think Blanton wouldn't be dinged as badly by GABP as one might initially think. For instance, he's got GB tendencies and he's one of those weird guys who has consistently posted a HR/FB rate that is much lower than normal for a starter.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
jojo, Where has Blanton ever shown groundball tendencies?
For his career here is his GB % according to fangraphs
2005 - 44.7%
2006 - 43.1%
2007 - 47.0%
Career - 45%
Thats not quite ground ball tendencies. They are better than the Reds have generally had in the past, but he does allow more balls in the air than on the ground. I think someone with gb tendencies is generally about 55-45 GB/FB. Blanton is about the exact opposite for his career.
For his career, Blanton's BIP tendencies look like this: GB%= 45% and FB%=35.5%.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I guess I count pop ups and line drives as 'fly balls' too.
By that standard, Harang would be considered an extreme flyball pitcher and a guy like Roy Halladay (career GB%=57%) would essentially have neutral ball-in-play tendencies...
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I consider Harang a fly ball pitcher. Halladay has a 14% advantage over fly balls, and that is fairly significant in terms of being one way over the other. Generally I go 55% ground balls makes you an extreme groundball pitcher. 10% more one way than the other is roughly where I put that line. Maybe I am out there with that though.
I'm not sure I'm understanding your classifications (where did the LD's go?).
Blanton has induced 10% more GB than FB for his career.
BTW, I agree that 55% GB is an extreme groundballer but I didn't claim Blanton had extreme GB tendencies.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
LD/PU/FB.... all are fly balls to me. Either its a groundball, or its a flyball. So when someone is getting 45% groundballs, then they are getting 55% flyballs... at least thats how I look at it. But again, that might just be me.
It just seems like a very rigorous bar to pass in order to be classified as a ground ball pitcher because only 7 qualified pitchers actually bested 55% GB% and a guy like Wang whose whole value is essentially derived from inducing GBs would only marginally qualify.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I have tough standards I guess.
From Rotoworld:
The Mariners have instructed Adam Jones to leave the Venezuelan winter league, according to the Baltimore Sun.
It might have absolutely nothing to do with a potential Erik Bedard trade, but it sure does add some fuel to the speculation and rumors. If Bedard is dealt to Seattle, Jones will almost surely be the centerpiece of the package heading back to Baltimore.
I think it's important to remember as well that the Reds' defensive performance as of 2007 also gives extra value to fly balls -- beyond just the park effect. The middle of the infield is best defensive area we have right now. The corner OF are the worst. Flyballs are death to us right now.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Some interesting tidbits on both Blanton and Bedard per Mlbtraderumors.com:
MLB.com's Jim Molony talked to an A's source who expects Joe Blanton to stay put and be Oakland's Opening Day starter. The offers so far must not have been encouraging.
We haven't really heard the specifics of any Blanton offers. The closest we came to learning Billy Beane's asking price was on December 20th, when Buster Olney said:
Have heard that the Mets could land Joe Blanton with this package: center fielder Carlos Gomez, pitcher Aaron Heilman and pitcher Kevin Mulvey.
Aside from the Mets, the Reds, Indians, and Mariners reportedly had some level of interest in Blanton.
Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard
You've probably heard of Jonathan Mayo. He's a prominent writer on MLB.com, focusing on the minor leagues more recently. Mayo recently wrote a book called Facing Clemens, which "puts you right in the batter's box against the Rocket Man." Mayo finished the book before the steroid allegations surfaced, but it sounds like an interesting read regardless.
In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that if you click the above Amazon link and buy the book, I'll get 46 cents. Hopefully Mayo gets a better cut than that from his publisher!
Anyway, I asked Mayo a handful of questions for publication on MLBTR.
MLBTR: If you were Wayne Krivsky, would you trade Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard straight up? What players would you compare Bruce to? How does Bruce compare to Adam Jones?
Mayo: In a word, no. I wouldn’t trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. Frankly, and maybe I’m a little prospect-slanted, there’s not much I would trade Jay Bruce for. Not only is the guy going to be one of the game’s great hitters, he’s an outstanding individual who’ll represent the organization extremely well. I know that’s not the be-all, end-all, but Bruce is going to be a true ambassador for the game. He’s going to hit for average, get on base, hit for a ton of power, play good OF (eventually RF, but fine in CF for now), throw runners out, maybe even steal a few bases. It’s hard to come up with a good comparable, but I’ll go with Larry Walker. Maybe not quite as much speed, but it’s pretty close.
Jones is more of a prototypical five-tooler, who won’t hit for as much power right away. I think Bruce has more power potential than Jones, while Jones is likely a bit faster and will stay in CF.
If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.
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