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Thread: Royals interested in Bruce?

  1. #121
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Couple things worry me about Andrew Susac , he is already 26 years old and is only a .258 hitter for his career in the minors.

  2. #122
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by indy_dave00 View Post
    Couple things worry me about Andrew Susac , he is already 26 years old and is only a .258 hitter for his career in the minors.
    He wouldn't be a centerpiece type, but he was a top 100 prospect by several outlets going into 2015 and here's what Fangraphs said about ranking him #1 for the Giants last year:

    Scouting Report: Susac was a potential first round pick in 2011, but then he slid after breaking his hamate bone a couple months before the draft. He was seen as an offensive catcher that had the tools to stick defensively but needed some work receiving, but his offensive strength was power, which would be sapped for a year or two while recovering from the hamate injury.

    Susac has above average raw power, but likely won’t get to all of it in games due to his leg kick. The kick allows him to create some power but can also disrupt his timing when he’s fooled by off-speed pitches, so that move helps create his power-over-hit tendency at the plate. There’s above average bat speed, which will give him some margin for error against big league pitching that other catchers don’t have.

    Given the shortage of offense from catchers in the big leagues, a 45 bat and 50 game power is more than enough to be an everyday option if you are even passable behind the plate, which Susac is. He’s an average defender, with some scouts thinking he’s even a tick better than that now and his above average arm plays. The question is how much offensive impact he’ll have, but he should be a big league regular of some sort, even if he’s currently blocked by the best catcher in baseball.

    Summation: He’ll open the season in Triple-A as the Giants’ 3rd catcher, behind Posey and Sanchez. Susac still has some things he can work on, but, by the end of the season, will be looking to force his way in to the lineup at a corner position if there isn’t a hole behind the plate he can slide into.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

  3. #123
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuff Nut View Post
    RMR, one other catcher that has been doing well in AAA, but likely not going anywhere, is Willson Contreras, ChC.
    Yeah, geez. I had looked at him briefly but somehow was thinking he was low minors. Dude is killing it. Cubs are so freaking loaded...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #124
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    if we are looking at the giants system I like:

    1) Aramis Garcia-C (A+)- #8 prospect would give us better depth in the system

    2) Kyle Crick-RHP (AA)- #18 prospect, probably needs to switch to bullpen role would be solid back end guy.

  5. #125
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Bruce heating up, leads MLB in triples

    "Honestly, this year so far has felt the most consistent for me just from a feeling standpoint," Bruce said. "I just think my swing is in a good spot. I don't honestly think about getting hot or not being hot. I try to take the same approach every day. I think the biggest thing is ending at-bats when they're supposed to end. You get a pitch to hit, it's got to be done. My second at-bat today, I didn't do that [and struck out in the third inning]. It really, really upset me."

    You guys...I feel like I should know better, but I'm starting to come around on that contract extension idea that has been tossed around.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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  7. #126
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Worth noting, Bruce has a .300 BABIP. The last two seasons it was .269 and .251. Maybe that was just more evidence of him struggling, maybe that was bad luck. But there doesn't appear to be anything particularly unsustainable about his current offensive output. His 132 wRC+is 23rd in the NL among qualified batters.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  9. #127
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Bruce's batted ball profile and swing rates all support an increase in BABIP also. His contact is the hardest of his career, he's swinging less outside the zone, he's making more contact in general, his line drive rate is up and he's swinging less in general. Maybe it just took him longer to mature, and when he was supposed to really have his 'breakout' seasons he was injured which made him look more like bottoming out than the opposite.

    I've always liked Bruce and like I said in the other topic I would be fine with extending him. I also think that his bat will age well and not see a huge dropoff until his mid thirties, tbh, minus injuries. I could definitely see him being a 30+ homer .315+ OBP guy for the next 4 - 6 years anyway. He could always move to first, also, since Votto has 4 years on him and he'll start to show age first, IMO.
    "If I wanted you to understand I would have explained it better."
    - Johan Cruyff, RIP

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  11. #128
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Dave Cameron just said on Twitter there are no good outfielders on the market. I tweeted him and said Jay Bruce is having a solid season, at least from the power department. He responded by saying "Jay Bruce has been a disaster in the field."

    That is a good point, we may be overselling Bruce's worth right now. Defense is important and Bruce so far this season has been one of the worst fielders in major league baseball statistically. That has to be hurting his value.

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  13. #129
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Dave Cameron just said on Twitter there are no good outfielders on the market. I tweeted him and said Jay Bruce is having a solid season, at least from the power department. He responded by saying "Jay Bruce has been a disaster in the field."

    That is a good point, we may be overselling Bruce's worth right now. Defense is important and Bruce so far this season has been one of the worst fielders in major league baseball statistically. That has to be hurting his value.
    And I will continue to point it out until I'm blue in the face: The defensive stats "we" use are tic-tac-toe compared to the chess that MLB teams are using. Maybe he has been a disaster in the field - but the stats suggesting that certainly aren't evidence of it.

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  15. #130
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And I will continue to point it out until I'm blue in the face: The defensive stats "we" use are tic-tac-toe compared to the chess that MLB teams are using. Maybe he has been a disaster in the field - but the stats suggesting that certainly aren't evidence of it.
    Dave Cameron probably has access to more stats than "we" though, right?

    I was under the impression he is a very respectable baseball writer?

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  17. #131
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Dave Cameron just said on Twitter there are no good outfielders on the market. I tweeted him and said Jay Bruce is having a solid season, at least from the power department. He responded by saying "Jay Bruce has been a disaster in the field."

    That is a good point, we may be overselling Bruce's worth right now. Defense is important and Bruce so far this season has been one of the worst fielders in major league baseball statistically. That has to be hurting his value.
    He's been a pretty damn bad in RF. I think he could be fine in LF.

    I don't really think that outfield defense is of extreme importance to all teams, especially if they are hungry for a bat. I mean, the Padres traded for Matt Kemp and his big contract due to his bat in 2014 despite knowing how terrible he was on defense. Carlos Beltran hasn't been any good in the outfield since 2008. Matt Holliday had just one season in his career where he didn't have a defensive war in the negatives.

    I just don't think it's a huge deal.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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  19. #132
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Dave Cameron probably has access to more stats than "we" though, right?

    I was under the impression he is a very respectable baseball writer?
    No, he doesn't. He's not getting access to the internal trackman/defensive data and how teams are using it. He might be able to look deeper into UZR than "we" are, but at the end of the day, that's still just some dude watching the play and saying Player X caught the ball in spot Y and it had this kind of trajectory. The teams are tracking where the guys started, where they finished, the route they took, how far they traveled, the speed of the ball, the exact trajectory of the ball, how long it took the player to start moving from contact - things that are very important and paint a complete picture of what was happening. What UZR does is absolutely pre-school esque compared to that stuff.

    Think about it like this: If a team is positioning players and they kind of stink at it, his defensive metrics are going to suffer. But maybe he's actually a really good defender. Won't matter - UZR says he sucks. But a team may know that he covers more ground than anyone, but it's just being misused. Then he goes to a team who knows how to position guys and it's a huge difference maker. This may not apply to Bruce, but it probably does apply to someone out there.

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  21. #133
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Bruce heating up, leads MLB in triples




    You guys...I feel like I should know better, but I'm starting to come around on that contract extension idea that has been tossed around.
    Can we move him to LF? Dude's a liability in right at this point.

  22. #134
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And I will continue to point it out until I'm blue in the face: The defensive stats "we" use are tic-tac-toe compared to the chess that MLB teams are using. Maybe he has been a disaster in the field - but the stats suggesting that certainly aren't evidence of it.
    Yeah, but you have eyes, right? Ray Charles can see he's horrible out there right now. Contrary to popular belief, defense can slump just like offense, so it doesn't mean he's cooked, but it's not a good sign.

  23. #135
    Member Tracy Jones's Avatar
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    Re: Royals interested in Bruce?

    If the Reds are going to move Bruce, the perfect trade partner is up north in Cleveland. The Tribe has the pitching to stay in the race for the long haul, and a bat of Bruce's caliber (at least right now) could be an extremely valuable final piece to get them past KC. Plus they could hide him at DH.

    I'd ask again what they asked for Frazier.

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