If Jay continues to hit this well, he will demand a huge contract after 2017.Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990
If Jay doesn't continue to hit this well, the Reds will have lost the opportunity to trade him for a "haul."
Either way, it makes sense to move him if you can get very strong prospect in return.
I get that. But I don't like the thought of other teams knowing for sure the Reds will trade him. Make them sweat. And if you don't get a good haul, pick it up and try again next year. (Assuming he is playing well)
HokieRed (06-21-2016),RedsBaron (06-22-2016),Revering4Blue (06-22-2016),Ron Madden (06-21-2016)
I want Walt showing Dick how it's done on this one. He was brilliant in Cueto and he can be even more brilliant on Bruce. I hope he takes the lead. With an extra year of control as an option and hitting being so bad this year across baseball this honestly could be something that rapidly speeds up the rebuild. I'm amazed people are changing to a "keep Bruce" argument. I honestly hate to see him go but I think it could be a wonderful building block in the next winning team.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
To me, in a prospects trade, the key isn't so much Walt v. Dick. The key is the Reds' scouting of the prospects.
It would be easy if the prospects in the deal were the absolute top, top elite prospects in baseball. You don't have to be a genius to understand a near sure thing atop every list.
In Bruce's case, we're mainly talking about one highly considered prospect, but not a top ten MLB guy. The scouts' guidance on the value of that prospect is the key to the deal. Reds need to pick the right one.
Last edited by Kc61; 06-22-2016 at 12:09 AM.
Redeyecat (06-23-2016)
I get that. Walt just almost always wins in trades and usually doesn't panic. Dick might be awesome but I truly hope Walt is part of the process like I suspect he will be. Give me two more trades like the Cueto deal when dealing Cozart and Bruce and I will be almost satisfied.
I think those deals illustrate just what you are saying. Reed wasn't on a top 100 list but he obviously was someone the Reds scouts had influences in getting.
I can't wait for the deadline because I think Walt/Dick are going to make some great long term moves with these two chips.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
Assuming the right return the Reds clearly should trade Jay Bruce, but I will be sorry to see him go. He has been frustratingly inconsistent in his Reds career, but he has always seemed to be a good guy and he is well up on the Reds career HR list. He will deserve to be inducted into the Reds HOF when he retires. I hope he goes to a team that can get him a World Series ring, as happened with Cueto last year.
"Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."
Boss-Hog (06-22-2016),OnBaseMachine (06-22-2016),Redeyecat (06-23-2016),Revering4Blue (06-22-2016),westofyou (06-22-2016),WildcatFan (06-22-2016)
Houston is on the rise and sits at 36-36, 3 games out of the WC. I wonder what it would take to pry Bregman? If Jay keeps this up I almost wonder if a straight up 1-1 would be possible
I'm not sure any sabermetrically inclined team would give you much for him.
The exception -if his defensive stats are better than perceived at our level -then he might be able to throw off a B- kind of prospect. Maybe someone's 11-15th prospect. I would like to trade with the Dodgers- they don't seem to mind eating salary and losing a deal for short term gain.
Billy Hamilton's Legs (06-22-2016)
The defensive thing is overblown due to advanced metrics. Bruce is not going to wow you on defense aside from his arm which is still above average but he is more than capable of doing his job in RF. With the stick here is how he ranks currently
AVG .282 - 64th
OBP .333 - 86th
SLG .588 - 6th
OPS .921 - 17th
HR 17 - 17th
RBI - 55 - 4th
While he doesn't have a history of hitting for average a guy who is on pace to hit say .275+, OBP around .330, and hit 30 HRs w/90+ RBIs and OPS north of .850 is a very valuable player. He was ranked as the #4 trade candidate by MLBtraderumors on May 31st and has been even better since then. Add in Rich Hill being on the DL and Braun and Lucroy cooling off and Bruce is the hottest trade bait in baseball. A benefit that I'm sure everyone in the Reds FO knows is that this years crop of trade candidates is very underwhelming. If traded Jay should net the Reds a package at least equal to Cueto, especially since Cueto was a rental and Jay has a $13m CO for 2017
Bruce's production to this point in the season has been nothing short of ideal from the Reds' seat. He's been one of the best bats in all of baseball (138 wRC+ puts him 28th in baseball, .381 wOBA puts him 27th in baseball, .921 OPS puts him 17th in baseball), is affordable to almost any team this season, and has a club option at an affordable rate for next year with a negligible buyout. A trade for him would allow the Reds to maintain the entirety of any leverage, as saying "no thanks, we need more than that" is a real threat - the Reds could refuse to trade Bruce at the deadline, pick up his option, and trade him in the offseason to a team without giving up the potential for a compensation pick.
It is very possible that Bruce will be far and away the most desirable bat available at the deadline.
Why isn't it possible for Bruce to net a Cueto-esque haul? He's an everyday player - especially on an AL team where the DH can mitigate any defensive concerns - and seems to have repelled the injury demons that may have plagued him in the last 1.5 seasons. I think that it's very possible to see a Carlos Gomez level return, especially if Bruce is packaged with another player. Gomez was moved with 1.5 years left on an affordable deal, and was performing at a level below Bruce offensively but above Bruce defensively. Gomez was packaged together with Mike Fiers, who was basically a league-average starter with some bat missing ability. The return was headlined by a projectable OF bat.
Sounds a lot like a Bruce/Straily or Bruce/Lamb package, doesn't it?
Benihana (06-22-2016),Chuckie (06-22-2016),Revering4Blue (06-22-2016)
After the Senzel pick, it only makes sense to target Bregman if you think he or Peraza can stick at SS. Otherwise I would target an OF, and Cleveland seems like the ideal partner with Zimmer and Frazier. Hopefully the Indians get jealous of all the attention the Cavs are getting and get obsessed with winning a championship now.
Go BLUE!!!
I like the Bruce to Astros for Bregman deal too! We will lose or let Cozart walk so its perfect timing next year to let Bregman get in there. I'd offer them Straily with Bruce for Bregman and 1 of Tucker/Cameron to see if that works. Astros still loaded with prospects and not in our division. Just have to let Walt consult Dick and have Dick do the talking with Luhnow, given the history with Walt. Lets hope we get a OF/IF haul this trade deadline like we did with Cueto deal last year.
The Tribe is more likely to promote Zimmer and/or Frazier than trade them.
Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.
Reds should not trade Bruce for a B- prospect. It would take at least one top-100 MLB prospect ... or teams interested in Bruce can go fly a kite.
Someone's 11-15th best prospect? No way. Unless you're talking about a team that owns 11-15 of the top-100 prospects in MLB.
Straily and Bruce for Bregman + 1 of Tucker/Cameron is a dream fantasy trade. I do this trade eight days a week and twice on Sunday.
Bruce goes home and the Astros pay again for Straily who the traded away for a back up catcher who got released.
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