Reds General Discussion 2026, Part 3

[mth123]

Reds bullpen walk rate has been high all year. Let’s dig a little deeper. Here are the relievers with more than 10 appearances and BB rates over 4.

The first number is lifetime walk rate. The second is 2026 walk rate. Philips (short MLB history) shows last year v this year.

Burke 2.92 (lifetime) V. 5.40 (2026).
Moll 4.26 v 4.40
Santillan 4.15 v 5.09
Ashcraft 3.21 v 5.33
Philips 4.32 (last year) v 9.11

These are not all guys with a history of astronomical walk rates. All of them have suddenly experienced walk increases this year (Moll’s increase slight). Burke is a vet in his first Reds season, has the most outings, a big increase in walks. Add in Kyle Nicolas, whose lifetime walk rate is high, over 5, but with Reds it was 15.95 in seven outings.

Something has gone wrong, maybe it’s the preparation or emphasis or maybe high walk outings just feed on themselves and guys start pressing. This isn’t a collection of guys who’ve never been able to throw strikes.

I wonder if ABS has gotten in their heads. Same goes for guys like Friedl and Stephenson.

[mth123]

I don't know. Seems to me like the Dodgers bullpen sucked for a long period of time last season.

I just posted the same. If the pitch you used to throw in a certain location as your go to out pitch is now being called a ball, not only does it hurt you there, but now the pitcher is forced to throw to other locations where he hasn't always thrown it.

Johnson preaches the high strike and a lot of those same pitches are now called balls with ABS. Not only are they called balls, but hitters aren't swinging and missing them as much. They've learned they can lay-off (except for Matt McLain - he still gets himself out swinging at them).

[Kc61]

League-wide walk rate up from 3.21 to 3.53. That’s the kind of increase I’d expect from adding ABS.

Reds increases are way larger than that.

Not disagreeing with anyone’s theories but the walk increases on Reds staff are absurdly high.

Reds team pitching K rate has gone from 8.66 to 7.84. This all on the starting side. SP K rate has gone from 8.65 to 7.07. Bullpen K rate has actually increased slightly.

So the pen is striking out more guys and walking much more.

Rotation is meaningfully up in walks and down in strikeouts. Rotation K rate is quite low.

[mth123]

League-wide walk rate up from 3.21 to 3.53. That’s the kind of increase I’d expect from adding ABS.

Reds increases are way larger than that.

Not disagreeing with anyone’s theories but the walk increases on Reds staff are absurdly high.

Reds team pitching K rate has gone from 8.66 to 7.84. This all on the starting side. SP K rate has gone from 8.65 to 7.07. Bullpen K rate has actually increased slightly.

So the pen is striking out more guys and walking much more.

Rotation is meaningfully up in walks and down in strikeouts. Rotation K rate is quite low.

The Reds staff in general has used the high strike around the shoulders as a go to pitch. Umps called that pitch a strike last year. ABS has called it a ball, so umps stopped calling it a strike and hitters figured out that they don't need to swing at it. I think it's had a significant effect on the Reds staff. Without that as a go to, they seem to be throwing it all over the place.

[Tony Cloninger]

Geno has had 142 PA’s this season. Last season, when he hit 49 HR’s, he had a stretch of 157 games where he put up this slash line:

.176/.242/.352/.594

You can likely find a similar period in every other of his seasons. Some much longer.

157 games of that line with 49 homers?

[Tony Cloninger]

League-wide walk rate up from 3.21 to 3.53. That’s the kind of increase I’d expect from adding ABS.

Reds increases are way larger than that.

Not disagreeing with anyone’s theories but the walk increases on Reds staff are absurdly high.

Reds team pitching K rate has gone from 8.66 to 7.84. This all on the starting side. SP K rate has gone from 8.65 to 7.07. Bullpen K rate has actually increased slightly.

So the pen is striking out more guys and walking much more.

Rotation is meaningfully up in walks and down in strikeouts. Rotation K rate is quite low.

No Hunter or Lodolo for a long time I think has affected the K rates of starters. Only Burns really strikes people out.

The sad part is pitchers unable to adjust to the ABS system this badly.

[NebraskaRed]

Reds announce that Derek Johnson is taking a personal leave of absence. No timeline given.

[Ron Madden]

From Lance McAlister

Down on the Farm last night: Louisville Bats
TJ Friedl, 0-4, K
Jose Trevino, 0-3, K, threw out a runner stealing
Chase Petty 6 innings, 2 runs
Jared Lyons made his AAA debut: 2 IN, 4 K
.

[Scott1965]

From Lance McAlister

Down on the Farm last night: Louisville Bats
TJ Friedl, 0-4, K
Jose Trevino, 0-3, K, threw out a runner stealing
Chase Petty 6 innings, 2 runs
Jared Lyons made his AAA debut: 2 IN, 4 K
.

Friedl 0 for 4. 3 weak ground outs and a K. Louisville had 1 hit 1 walk the entire game. Ivan Johnson got the hit. Next batter hit into a double play. Memphis started a junk ball left hander. Memphis pitching faced 1 batter over the minimum. Friedl lead off and made the last out.

[LeatherPants]

Reds announce that Derek Johnson is taking a personal leave of absence. No timeline given.

What did RTG do?

[RedTeamGo!]

What did RTG do?

That’s when the cannibalism started

[redsfan9988]

9 more walks by Reds pitching tonight.

Fire everyone.

[TheBigLebowski]

I’m also on the verge of taking a personal leave of absence from this team

[Alien Overlord]

Reds have now lost Singer's last 6 starts, and given up a total of 51 runs in them.

[Tony Cloninger]

If the issue is how the PC had them approach throwing strikes which ABS is affecting. And he is the pitching coordinator of the whole system. Does that mean it’s going to affect every pitcher? Burns and Abbott do not have this issue. There is talk about bringing up Parks from AAA. Another up to 100 mph thrower with BB issues.


I think using guys like Petty and if Aguiar is healthy would be a better option by now. Or at least worth a look.