Just like the Reds picked up Suarez and Disco, the a Reds could easily pick up Bruce's replacement in deals this deadline, or even next off season. It's not hard to find a prospect who could provide 2-3 WAR in RF.
Just like the Reds picked up Suarez and Disco, the a Reds could easily pick up Bruce's replacement in deals this deadline, or even next off season. It's not hard to find a prospect who could provide 2-3 WAR in RF.
Hoping to change my username to 75769026
Only 8 rightfielders in baseball have 2 or more WAR currently.Originally Posted by 757690
This is such a weird argument. The Reds could possibly pick up Bruce's replacement in the ensuing months, but to flippantly act like it's simply no sweat to replace a guy who averages 30 HRs a year on a team with some big holes on offensive is pretty nuts.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Always Red (07-13-2015),Banshee (07-12-2015),Big Klu (07-11-2015),CrosleyField (07-12-2015),NC Reds (07-12-2015),pahster (07-12-2015),Razor Shines (07-12-2015),Stingray (07-12-2015),westofyou (07-11-2015),wolfboy (07-12-2015)
Pretty much every year, there are 20-25 MLB RF with at least 2 WAR.
His HR's will be hard to replace. His sub .250 BA will be much easier.
Hoping to change my username to 75769026
Batting average? Really?
7-1.333
14-.989
28-1.052
2015-.907
April-.713
May-.754
June-.840
July-1.052
I was responding to a post that only mentioned HR's. Both were just as silly. Kinda the point of the post.
Hoping to change my username to 75769026
That's fine. Bruce's production at the major league level doesn't get the Reds much -- they're a second division team.
The sooner you get guys like YRod and Winker to the bigs, the sooner they have a chance to develop into players Bruce's caliber (or better).
As I've said before, unless you want Bruce to be part of the core going forward -- that is, unless you think he should be given a hefty long-term extension -- the time to deal him is now. Saying you want to keep him so that the Reds' offense is a little better this year is very shortsighted, IMO.
757690 (07-12-2015),CrackerJack (07-12-2015)
I really, really wish people would just stop talking about replacing component pieces of whole players entirely. It's a nonsensical argument. When you replace the source of the HRs, you also replace the source of the BA, the defense, etc. There's no option not to do it. Furthermore, you could replace Bruce with a guy that hits 0 HR and who is still an upgrade if he does other things well enough.
This is, essentially, the point you're making 757690. I just wish we didn't have to have the component part of the argument at all. It's just a waste of time discussion.
Ultimately, this comes down to what production you think you can get from Bruce. A simple weighted projection based on his last 5 years (5-4-3-2-1) puts him at about ~2 WAR in 2016. You can make all sorts of adjustments to explain struggles away and assert he's actually likely to be a 3 or 4 win player, but that type of approach is precisely how you wind up projecting every team in baseball to be above .500.
The Reds are slotted to pay Bruce 25.5M for '16/'17. If he's a 2 WAR player, that's basically market rate, suggesting that the Reds could theoretically replace his 2 WAR without the payroll budging and thus, if you can trade him for something of value, you do it.
To illustrate the point, here are the guys who the Reds might have signed to play RF this past offseason if they were trying to approximate about 2 WAR. I'm showing what they signed for, what ZiPS projected them for before the season and what they currently project for through the end of the season based on an updated projection that includes performance to date.
As a group, on average, we see they got about $22M/2 ($11M per year), were projected to produce about 1.7 WAR and are on pace to produce about 1.6 WAR. We could go back and do this every year and find rather similar results. The case for keeping Bruce rests on some combination of a few things:Code:$ Yrs $/Yr PrePrjWAR CurPrjWAR Cruz 57.0 4 14.3 2.5 3.4 Cabrera 42.0 3 14.0 2.2 -0.1 Markakis 44.0 4 11.0 1.5 1.9 Rios 11.0 1 11.0 1.7 0.2 Cuddyer 21.0 2 10.5 0.9 0.1 Hunter 10.5 1 10.5 0.8 1.9 Rasmus 8.0 1 8.0 2.1 2.1 Aoki 4.0 1 4.0 1.8 3.0 Young 2.5 1 2.5 1.8 1.7 ----------------------------------------------------------- Total/Avg 22.2 2 11.1 1.7 1.6 $/WAR $6.6 $7.0
- The idea that the Reds can win with this roster but can't do it unless they're getting the 4-5 WAR version of Bruce
- The belief that Bruce has a reasonable shot at being a 4 WAR player again and is very unlikely to be a sub-replacement player again
- The belief that the trade return for him would be quite weak
- A lack of faith in our GM to sign a replacement in FA that produces average WAR/$ value for FA signees
- A lack of faith in an in-house replacement to provide above replacement value production (allowing Bruce's salary to be spent elsewhere on the roster)
You can pick and choose among those arguments, but if you're a bad team without a good reason to believe you're on the cusp of competitiveness, holding on to guys who produce at market value rates but who could return useful assets is a wasted opportunity in my book.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-12-2015 at 11:47 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
757690 (07-12-2015),Old school 1983 (07-12-2015)
100+ point ops jump! I knew he could do it!
"I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."
-Hunter S. Thompson
Big Klu (07-12-2015),Razor Shines (07-12-2015)
Take out the 2014 numbers that were destroyed by injury and Bruce's career numbers are about as good or better than everybody on that list. And this year he's hitting better than all but Lind while playing a much more valuable position. Lind's numbers are a little inflated too because he almost never faces lefties so he always has the platoon advantage. I'm on the fence about trading Bruce but he should bring back some very valuable pieces if dealt
I'd say Bruce is #2 and Byrd is #6
Hang on....are we still contemplating dealing Jay Bruce? *rolls eyes*
In his prime.
reasonable contract.
showed last year was a fluke.
wants to be red for life.
Yeah, totally need to get rid of him.
Meh, it depends what you can get for him in return, surely the Reds can fine a similar or better RF'er in the next year or two, or someone from the system. I'm pretty tired of watching him disappear for months at a time lately. This lineup sorely needs an overhaul, and has, gotta let go of guys like him and get more consistency/OBP from your outfielders. They get so little from those positions now offensively, they don't get on base enough.
Quoting this here where it's more relevant. Bruce has been MORE consistent so far this year than in other years. The lowest his OPS has been in any month so far this season is .713. Back several years ago, he went as low as .508 in a month (July 2010).
I have also attacked the idea of consistency before as Bruce is far, far, FAR, from the only player with notable 'up' months and 'down' months. Here's one such from 2012:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ce-was-streaky
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Razor Shines (07-12-2015),wheels (07-12-2015)
I realize Jay Bruce is a plenty flawed player. But I want you to dig up this post in 5-10 years and I can guarantee you that neither Yorman or Winker develop into anything close to Jay Bruce (multiple All Star appearances). They just aren't of that pedigree. Maybe Ervin but not those two.
- - - Updated - - -
If he really wants to be a Red for life, one has to wonder why he would turn down multiple extensions from the Reds unless they were complete lowball offers.
2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2015 Attendance Record: 2-0
2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1
Walt needs to dump this bum on those idiots in Seattle.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
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