Jay Bruce hopes swing tweak leads to more success in 2016

[Bob Sheed]

You try and not let it get in your head when the haters are hating. Hard to shake that kind of stuff off.

[Seriously though, you're 100 percent correct. I'm not buying it's a "swing" issue with Jay. It's mental. He's lost his confidence. And the haters hating certainly doesn't help. Sorry, couldn't help myself.]

Yeah Jay has got probbbblems, and I don't think he's gonna solllllllve them.

[Chip R]

This is the key statement. It appears that no one has (successfully) been able to change their approach.
If it was easy to become an expert bunter (I know it isn't) and drop it down the 3b line every time, maybe the shifts would change.

I totally agree with the Pirates' statement. Why not shift? It appears the hitters either can't or won't change their approach because of it.
That's why we are suggesting Bruce bunting. His BA/OBP is so poor that it's worth sacrificing some power to try something different.
Now I have no idea if he's working on this or not. It is not a criticism, it just seems when someone has hit rock bottom like Bruce, it would be worth it to try to bunt for a hit when the opposition is playing effectively without a 3b. If nothing else, it would change the batted ball profile. A lot fewer balls would go to the shifted 2b and SS. The 3b (now playing SS) would get a lot fewer chances as well. If you did it long enough, the spray chart changes and then the defense moves back to a more normal position. And if they don't, we'd take any player batting his way to a 400ish OBP.

But you said it best when you said it isn't easy to be an expert bunter. If it were, Billy Hamilton would have a .500 OBP. They aren't going to be serving it up on a tee for him. This isn't BP from 45 feet away with no one in the stands. These are guys throwing 90 plus with movement. Even getting one down isn't enough. You have to get it down far enough so the pitcher or catcher can't make a play on it. I'd much rather have Jay work on his regular hitting than learning how to bunt.

The only way teams will stop shifting on him is if he starts hitting line drives and home runs to the opposite field. Eight year veterans who are entering their free agency year aren't going to learn to bunt successfully on a regular basis. Batters are not going to change their approaches - especially veteran hitters.

[Caveat Emperor]

Does anyone remember the yearly articles about Dunn doing some tweaking to cut down on those nasty evil strike outs?

He and Whiffey are runing this team.

[REDREAD]

But you said it best when you said it isn't easy to be an expert bunter. If it were, Billy Hamilton would have a .500 OBP. They aren't going to be serving it up on a tee for him. This isn't BP from 45 feet away with no one in the stands. These are guys throwing 90 plus with movement. Even getting one down isn't enough. You have to get it down far enough so the pitcher or catcher can't make a play on it. I'd much rather have Jay work on his regular hitting than learning how to bunt.

The only way teams will stop shifting on him is if he starts hitting line drives and home runs to the opposite field. Eight year veterans who are entering their free agency year aren't going to learn to bunt successfully on a regular basis. Batters are not going to change their approaches - especially veteran hitters.

Oh I agree, it's not easy.
And I am saying this.. I am not a mind reader. I don't know what Bruce has tried or not tried.
It doesn't seem like he's attempted many bunts to the 3b line though.
Maybe there's a good reason for this. IF he could do this though, it might remove the shift.

So yea, I agree with you. I'd like to see Bruce try to bunt more though. For awhile, he seemed to be trying hard to hit the ball the other way, and had some success.
Again, I do not have the numbers to back this up, but it seemed like he went away from that approach. Maybe there was a good reason.
Just frustrating to see him pound the ball right into the shift the majority of the time. Sometimes the ball does get through, but not often enough (at least during his cold spells).

But yea, maybe Bruce just can't do it. Not accusing him of being lazy. Just would like to see him show the bunt. After the all star break last year, Bruce hit 199 and had a 242 OBP. Plenty of people lobby for Billy H to bunt more, since he has a weak OBP, why not the same for Bruce? Billy is faster, but Bruce has the advantage of no one at 3b.

[Chuckie]

Jay is now batting .400 this spring after his 2-for-3 performance today against the Angels.

Orioles, what are you waiting for? We haven't had a .400 hitter in MLB since Ted Williams and you aren't going to jump all over Jay Bruce before someone else does? Don't be losers.

[tomnuetten]

I can´t read/hear it anymore... how often do people say player xy should practice his bunting and than post a bunting for a hit percentage that is unbelievable.

Bunting isn´t easy. It´s not like you´ll do it 3 weeks in spring training and afterwards make 66% of your bunts... It is not that easy, there is a reason not many do it on a regular bases.

next thing: if you can get a bunt down, the pitch was most likely a hittable pitch. You don´t want to see your power guy wasting those pitches. I like Vottos approach to avoid outs (while hitting for power aswell) but I just don´t think that bunting would help him doing that.

[wheels]

I can´t read/hear it anymore... how often do people say player xy should practice his bunting and than post a bunting for a hit percentage that is unbelievable.

Bunting isn´t easy. It´s not like you´ll do it 3 weeks in spring training and afterwards make 66% of your bunts... It is not that easy, there is a reason not many do it on a regular bases.

next thing: if you can get a bunt down, the pitch was most likely a hittable pitch. You don´t want to see your power guy wasting those pitches. I like Vottos approach to avoid outs (while hitting for power aswell) but I just don´t think that bunting would help him doing that.

Exactly.

A bunt-able pitch is usually a hittable pitch. Don't pass it up.

[Red Rocket]

What's different?

[Roy Tucker]

Not all of us are as old as you, old man.

Old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance.

[RedsManRick]

Looking at the spray data, take the LD and FB out of the picture. It appears as if most of the GB's Bruce hits are to a certain part of the field. I would venture to say that 3/4 to 4/5 of the GB's Bruce hits are in between the 2nd base bag and the first baseman. The defense is able to position itself to eliminate many of Bruce's hits. Now you may be able to say that the shift hasn't done anything new to Bruce's offensive numbers, but I don't think you can deny it has eliminated many of his hits. In essence, if it wasn't working then teams wouldn't be doing it.

Just look at the data from the article I linked:

Season	PA	Shifted	Shift BABIP	No Shift BABIP	XBH% Shift	XBH% No Shift
2015	434	174	0.276		0.195		0.081		0.073
2014	350	192	0.292		0.211		0.073		0.000
2013	418	121	0.231		0.373		0.091		0.112
2012	383	171	0.322		0.275		0.105		0.101

The last two seasons, he's actually had a much higher BABIP and hit XBH more often against the shift than when not being shifted on. I don't know why that is the case. It would make sense that he'd be hurt by the shift. I agree with your other point; it's possible that the shift has affected him mentally in a way that affects all of his PA. But the question of whether or not the shift is directly responsible for his significant drop in BABIP is answerable and the answer is no. The data show us quite cleanly that Bruce's BABIP problems are coming almost entirely from his incredibly poor BABIP when he's not being shifted on.

[REDREAD]

I can´t read/hear it anymore... how often do people say player xy should practice his bunting and than post a bunting for a hit percentage that is unbelievable.

Bunting isn´t easy. It´s not like you´ll do it 3 weeks in spring training and afterwards make 66% of your bunts... It is not that easy, there is a reason not many do it on a regular bases.

next thing: if you can get a bunt down, the pitch was most likely a hittable pitch. You don´t want to see your power guy wasting those pitches. I like Vottos approach to avoid outs (while hitting for power aswell) but I just don´t think that bunting would help him doing that.

The whole point of bunting is:
1. Make the defense move the 3b back to 3b.
2. Help Bruces' anemic average. He's not getting good results on hittable pitchers. Bruce hit 199 (with a poor OBP) last year I don't think we are setting the bar high here.
Could Bruce learn to bunt well enough (when the third baseman is out of position) to hit .200? I think that's doable. Is it easy? No nothing is easy, but Bruce really hasn't even tried. He briefly tried to focus on hitting the ball the other way (I think it was 2014)... The reason the Pirates (and I assume other teams) do the shift is because they have found hitter's spray pattern does not change, even with the shift. If Bruce attempted one bunt every at bat when there was no 3b, maybe the shift goes away. There's no way to know for sure, but it's worth trying. No shift would help Bruce (I don't think anyone is disputing that, but maybe someone is)

So, yea, bunting is not easy, but it's not as if Bruce is hitting well as he is now. I would gladly sacrifice maybe 5-10 HR a year from Bruce if it meant eliminating the shift, and increasing Bruce's OBP. Bruce had 25 HR last year, but his OBP was so poor that his Offensive WAR was 0.2 (basically replacement level).

[bucksfan2]

Bunting is difficult when you have people charging at you. Bunting is a little less difficult when the entire 3rd base line is wide open. Not easy, but not as difficult as a traditional bunt.

[Todd Gack]

Same story, different year

It's never the swing, it's his head. He thinks too much

I've been saying it for years. Doug can say whatever he wants about the mechanics of swings, but there are some ugly mechanical swings out there and guys are still raking. Jay Bruce just isn't the smartest player out there. He's not Nuke Laloosh dumb, he's more Rube Baker dumb.

[wlf WV]

Just look at the data from the article I linked:

Season	PA	Shifted	Shift BABIP	No Shift BABIP	XBH% Shift	XBH% No Shift
2015	434	174	0.276		0.195		0.081		0.073
2014	350	192	0.292		0.211		0.073		0.000
2013	418	121	0.231		0.373		0.091		0.112
2012	383	171	0.322		0.275		0.105		0.101

The last two seasons, he's actually had a much higher BABIP and hit XBH more often against the shift than when not being shifted on. I don't know why that is the case. It would make sense that he'd be hurt by the shift. I agree with your other point; it's possible that the shift has affected him mentally in a way that affects all of his PA. But the question of whether or not the shift is directly responsible for his significant drop in BABIP is answerable and the answer is no. The data show us quite cleanly that Bruce's BABIP problems are coming almost entirely from his incredibly poor BABIP when he's not being shifted on.

The 2013 shift drastically reduced his overall BABIP and he has never recovered.

[lidspinner]

for the crowd saying Votto or Bruce should not bunt, I think you all are missing the 1 and only point of bunting when the shift is giving you the free bunt.....you bunt to bring the defense out of the shift....

I highly doubt teams are going to sit out there and allow Jay and Joey to bunt 4 out of 4 times to the plate and take a give me base at 1st.....they will eventually come out of the shift, even if only slightly in little increments....

case in point....Matt Adams for the Cards last few seasons...every team in the league shifted on him and he started out by eating us alive in ground balls to the invisible 3rd basemen....fast forward to the next series we played them and bam, there sat a 3rd baseman right where he is supposed to be....Adams is more equal to Bruce than Votto so if teams move out of the shift against Bruce as quick as they did against Adams then I am perfectly fine with it....

even if they bunt and make an out, teams will take notice.

I understand Votto has silly stats and teams would love to see him bunt instead of shoot the gaps, but I would love to at least give it a try and see what happens.....
lets also not forgot, just becuase the shift is on doesnt mean the batter is going to get a pitch to bunt down the 3rd base line...he still has to get the pitch he needs to be able to place that ball.......so if the shift is on and Votto gets an fastball on the inside portion of his meat, then drive that ball, gap it....do what you do.....but god forbid he takes an outside pitch and lays a bunt down for a free base and now all of a sudden the infield starts doubting their spots....coaches will want to take that freebie away..

besides, if teams truly would love Votto to bunt instead of swing for the gaps then they would intentionally walk him every single at bat. Even if Barry Bonds were laying bunts down every at bat, teams would go away from the shift and try to stop him....its the name of the game and ego's normally are in charge