It's why the Good Lord invented the DH.Originally Posted by GAC
It's why the Good Lord invented the DH.
He made it clear that he wouldn't accept a role playing DH when he was here. Unless that's changed, I don't see the point. I like Castellanos, but this team needs pitching and defense. If you are going to spend that much, spend it on that and support it by making/keeping the defense strong.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
GAC (11-11-2023),Old school 1983 (11-10-2023),Revering4Blue (11-10-2023),Rowsdower (11-11-2023)
The Problem(s) With Trading Nick Castellanos
Read More Here:Castellanos has never graded as even an average defender in the outfield, and his two seasons in Philadelphia haven’t changed that. He’s played just over 2300 innings in right field with the Phils and been dinged for -17 Defensive Runs Saved. Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at -20.2, and Statcast has him at 19 outs below average.
The huge offensive output that Castellanos produced in 2018, 2019 and 2021 more than offset his shaky glovework, but he was below average at the plate with the Phils in 2022 and only about nine percent better than average at the plate in 2023 (by measure of wRC+, which weights for home park and league run-scoring environment).
There are also some red flags in his offensive profile; Castellanos has seen his exit velocity and barrel rates drop in Philadelphia, while this past season’s 27.6% strikeout rate was the worst of his career in a full 162-game season.
He’s never walked at an especially high clip, but his patience is also on the decline. Castellanos drew a free pass in 7.3% of his plate appearances during his final two seasons with the Reds. That’s dropped to 5.3% in two seasons with the Phillies.
Meanwhile, he’s chasing pitches off the plate more than ever before (43.1% with the Phils; 37.1% in his career prior). As a result, his contact rate has plummeted. This past season’s 66.6% contact rate is nearly five percentage points south of his career 71.5% mark.
There’s virtually no way the Phillies would be able to move the entirety of Castellanos’ contract and receive something of value in return.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/...stellanos.html
Yeah I think there is no way around trading for starting pitching. I was just reading where they think Jordan Montgomery might be approaching 200mil. That’s a guy that does not miss bats and is among the highest gaps between real ERA and expected ERA. I have a feeling he would make every one forget about Eric Milton
REDREAD (11-10-2023)
Jeimer? I hardly even know her.
He’s not a bad target given Votto’s departure, but I suspect that the free agent and trade market for hitters is going to be much more expensive for clubs than people expect. Just look at the “big” names available on the free agent market, there are exactly two: Ohtani and Bellinger. Bellinger is risky, and the names after him are even riskier. Jeimer is 5th best on that list. $70 million guarantee is what mlbtraderumors projects. I think that $70 million is better spent on pitching.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/...edictions.html
Stick to your guns.
REDREAD (11-10-2023)
Fair enough. I agree with your clarification.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
In what world is Jeimer Candelerio a good fit for the Reds? They have plenty of infielders.
Openers are for losers
He hits righties well, he'd be a nice fit with the four young infielders. He could presumably play the corner OF spots too. It would allow CES and Fraley to DH more, and would provide insurance for Benson's potential fall to earth.
Plenty of room for a bat like Candelerio if they trade India.
Falls City Beer (11-10-2023),Old school 1983 (11-11-2023),Revering4Blue (11-10-2023)
Trade India and Senzel you might need another guy. Maybe they are going to look at EDLC in RF...
2023 splits 142 abs vs LHP ; 363 abs vs RHP
(BA, OBP, Slg, OPS)
vs LHP .254 .342 .451 .793
vs RHP .251 .333 .479 .812
https://www.milb.com/player/jeimer-c...-mlb&year=2023
That make the starting 8 likely:
CA: Stephenson
1b: CES
2b: Marte/McLain
ss: Marte/McLain
3b: Candelerio
RF: EDLC
CF: Friel
LF: Benson/Steer/Fraley
The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change, the realist adjusts the sails.
William Arthur Ward
30 y/o corner infielder Jeimer Candelario
career v RHP .234-.322-.405
A year after being nontendered and having to sign a 1 year / 5M$ deal shopping his services to 30 clubs
MLBTR predicts 17.5M per over 4 years
Fangraphs predicts 12M per over 3 years
....RedsZone....yeah let's do it.
REDREAD (11-11-2023)
Yep, if it was possible to get him on a one year deal like they did with Solano, it would be worth considering.
But it would be kind of crazy to give that guy a multiyear deal.
I understand the people that are in favor of it in a vaccum (like assuming there's a large payflex budget)
IMO, they aren't going to be adding much salary this winter, so I'd rather them not sign the guy.
I'd rather them spend what little payflex that they have on pitching, maybe a RH OF bat too, but pitching is #1 priority.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I'd take Candelrio if the price is right. I'd offer him 2 /20-25 total.
Castellanos is only interesting to me if phillies eat half his salary. I'd do 3/30, not 3/60. Offer a Rece Hinds prospect or 2 and maybe gets done.
Re Candelerio, it's interesting that there now seems to be sentiment here for a one year deal only (which of course he's not going to sign). If the MLBTR and Fangraphs numbers are reasonably reliable, it will cost about 15 million a year over three or four years to secure a lifetime .727 vs. RHP. There seems to me considerable downside risk in such a contract. Much more than there was in a 13 million one year deal with a player who could reasonably be projected to be a league average bat with perhaps a .750 OPS. I must be missing something.
My preference was to pick up Candelrio at the deadline but that ship sailed. I’m not nuts on spending big money on the guy but I think he’d be a good fit in GAB.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Take whatever money you guys would want to give Candelario, Castellanos etc and give it to a starter and a late inning reliever.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Bourgeois Zee (11-11-2023),goreds2 (11-11-2023),Jim (11-12-2023),Old school 1983 (11-11-2023),REDREAD (11-11-2023),Revering4Blue (11-11-2023)
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
