Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason

[Falls City Beer]

The gauntlet has changed. It’s incredibly tougher to breach now. Odds of a division winner becoming World Series Champions have been drastically reduced.

No it hasn’t lol. Again you’re just inventing stuff. You can’t demonstrate how the odds of winning have decreased. It’s a completely circular argument.

[757690]

No it hasn’t lol. Again you’re just inventing stuff. You can’t demonstrate how the odds of winning have decreased. It’s a completely circular argument.

I literally showed how the odds have changed in post #433.

What do you call it when someone makes up the fact that someone made up a fact?

[Falls City Beer]

I literally showed how the odds have changed in post #433.

What do you call it when someone makes up the fact that someone made up a fact?

If somehow you could show randomness changes over the course of series then you’d have an argument, but you can’t demonstrate that. That post proves nothing. Randomness settles on all teams like snow. That doesn’t change if it’s five series or two.

[757690]

If somehow you could show randomness changes over the course of series then you’d have an argument, but you can’t demonstrate that. That post proves nothing. Randomness settles on all teams like snow. That doesn’t change if it’s five series or two.

Tell me you don’t understand what “odds” mean, without telling me you don’t understand what “odds” mean.

[Falls City Beer]

Tell me you don’t understand what “odds” mean, without telling me you don’t understand what “odds” mean.

I know exactly what it means. And increasing the number of postseason series changes nothing.

If anything, more doorways into the postseason improve the Reds’ odds.

[757690]

I know exactly what it means. And increasing the numbers of postseason series changes nothing.

If a division winner needs to win 2 series in order to win a World Series title, their odds of winning a World Series title is 25%. If a division winner needs to win 4 series in order to win a World Series title, their odds of winning a World Series title is 6.25%.

Increasing the number of playoff series absolutely changes the odds of winning a championship, but a substantial manner.

[Falls City Beer]

If a division winner needs to win 2 series in order to win a World Series title, their odds of winning a World Series title is 25%. If a division winner needs to win 4 series in order to win a World Series title, their odds of winning a World Series title is 6.25%.

Increasing the number of playoff series absolutely changes the odds of winning a championship, but a substantial manner.

Sure if you entirely ignore the fact that only two winners from a league could even qualify in the past.

I’ll take 6.25% over zero percent.

[757690]

Sure if you entirely ignore the fact that only two winners from a league could even qualify in the past.

I’ll take 6.25% over zero percent.

I disagree with the thesis that says “because there are more rounds in the postseason, all the Reds should do is shoot for an 84 win team and cross their fingers.”

The debate you framed was whether the Reds should build a team that can make the playoffs, or a team that they think can win the World Series. So those are the odds we are discussing.

My point is that because the odds of a playoff team winning the World Series is now only 6.25%, fans that demand a team win the World Series, are going to be disappointed nearly all the time. 93.75% of the time that they their team makes the playoffs. Fans obviously have the right to demand that, but they need to be prepared to be disappointed most if not all of their lives.

[Falls City Beer]

The debate you framed was whether the Reds should build a team that can make the playoffs, or a team that they think can win the World Series. So those are the odds we are discussing.

My point is that because the odds of a playoff team winning the World Series is now only 6.25%, fans that demand a team win the World Series, are going to be disappointed nearly all the time. 93.75% of the time that they their team makes the playoffs. Fans obviously have the right to demand that, but they need to be prepared to be disappointed most if not all of their lives.

First of all, no.

These series aren’t completely random. Yes, there’s randomness built in but they aren’t equally 6.25% odds across the board.

You’re 100% defending not improving the team.

[Revering4Blue]

Given the collection of cheap, young talent the Reds have currently, the endgame should be to win multiple Championships - not to win four out of eight division titles or whatever. The way you win championships is by supplementing your cheap, young talent with expensive veteran talent via trades and free agency.

The Brewers have made the playoffs a lot. Their response was to give 50 postseason at-bats to Tyrone Taylor, Brian Anderson, and Owen Miller - and then get outbid by a more serious club for their manager’s services. They’re not serious about winning. I’d rather be them than the Pirates - but being the Brewers/Rays/Guardians isn’t my goal.

Well, the idea is not so much to emulate the Brewers/Rays/Guardians. Rather, it should be to adopt their principles while utilizing an economic advantage - read: higher payroll - given the stadium situations in Tampa, lack of fan support in Cleveland and market advantage over Milwaukee. And they don’t need a Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs or even Cardinals sized payroll to accomplish this.

The problem: So far, given the aforementioned three franchises are always active during both the offseason and trading deadline, there’s really no solid evidence the Reds are even emulating any of them. Any franchise,even the Pirates, can draft/acquire and hold and that’s not nearly enough if the goal is to win the World Series, let alone reach one.


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[757690]

You’re 100% defending not improving the team.

I've tried to stay away from making this about what the Reds should do, and focus it on what fans should expect.

But this same argument does not defend not improving the Reds. The Reds clearly need to improve this offseason. The question is how? One argument is to improve the team so it can win the division or make the playoffs and then have fun in the post season. The other argument is to improve the team so that they are one of the favorites to win the World Series.

[SteelSD]

First of all, no.

These series aren’t completely random. Yes, there’s randomness built in but they aren’t equally 6.25% odds across the board.

You’re 100% defending not improving the team.

You're correct. Entering the playoffs, the Braves had a 26.4% chance of surviving the playoff gauntlet to win the World Series, with the Dodgers at 14.8%. The Astros were at 19.7%. The Rangers had a 4.0% chance. While it's nice that Texas overcame those odds to hoist the trophy, I don't have a lot of interest a persistent plan hinging the concept of "Well, anything is possible!"

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/...-02&dateDelta=

To your point, probability is not independent of team quality. It's not coin flipping, and odds shift as the playoffs unfold. Getting in gives a team a shot, but just getting in doesn't mean that the path to a title is equally likely/unlikely for each team. Build the best team you possibly can, then play the heck out of the game until there are no more games to play.

[Kc61]

Never could abide the notion that you build to sneak into the playoffs because then “anything can happen.”

The objective should be to have a first rate team that, on merit, competes for a WS Championship.

That’s the kind of team fans should aspire to, even if the team has a bad playoff series and gets eliminated some seasons.

In the end, if you consistently have that kind of team, you’ll be rewarded with wins, playoffs, occasional championships, individual awards, all stars, overall recognition in the baseball world.

[SteelSD]

Never could abide the notion that you build to sneak into the playoffs because then “anything can happen.”

The objective should be to have a first rate team that, on merit, competes for a WS Championship.

That’s the kind of team fans should aspire to, even if the team has a bad playoff series and gets eliminated some seasons.

In the end, if you consistently have that kind of team, you’ll be rewarded with wins, playoffs, occasional championships, individual awards, all stars, overall recognition in the baseball world.

To clarify, I'm perfectly fine with just getting in if it's the result of overplaying expectations, which makes the lack of effort to bolster the team at this year's trade deadline disturbing to me. But as the result of a consistent plan to start seasons? Nah. That's a team with a floor set far too low. Do not want.

[757690]

You're correct. Entering the playoffs, the Braves had a 26.4% chance of surviving the playoff gauntlet to win the World Series, with the Dodgers at 14.8%. The Astros were at 19.7%. The Rangers had a 4.0% chance. While it's nice that Texas overcame those odds to hoist the trophy, I don't have a lot of interest a persistent plan hinging the concept of "Well, anything is possible!"

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/...-02&dateDelta=

To your point, probability is not independent of team quality. It's not coin flipping, and odds shift as the playoffs unfold. Getting in gives a team a shot, but just getting in doesn't mean that the path to a title is equally likely/unlikely for each team. Build the best team you possibly can, then play the heck out of the game until there are no more games to play.

Showing that a team with a supposed 4% chance of winning the World Series, won the World Series, is not the win you think it is.

When you have so many teams playing so few games to decide the championship, the true odds, the ones I posted, play a much larger role in determining who wins, than those odds from Fangraphs (or any other site). Those odds from Fangraphs might be reliable if teams needed 100 wins to win a championship. But some team’s fate is decided by as few as 2 games. When that is the case, the fewer games being played, then luck (or the odds I posted) is a much bigger decider than talent.

In other words, those odds from Fangraphs, aren’t that reliable in short playoff situation. Building a more talented team give you a more meaningful chance of winning over a full season. It doesn’t give you nearly as much of a meaningful chance to win over a short playoff series.

And we have seen this play out time and time again in the playoffs. We saw it this year, we saw it last year with the 7 wins Phillies getting to the World Series, in 2021 with the 88 win Braves winning it all, and in 2019 with the Nationals winning it all. We likely will keep seeing this, because overall talent means less and less in this current playoff situation.

With such short series, “anything can happen” become truer and truer.