Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason

[MoneyInTheBank]

You have been pretty fair as far as discussing things. I was speaking to the post that I originally responded to which was not you as far as the apologist piece. I won’t doubt for a second that Castillo and Gray would have been difference makers last year. I want high performing vets around as well. But you you have to put that in the context of the rest of the team too. I was one of the more optimistic people going into last season and I thought the first half would be rough and the second half would see the Reds progress a la 2009. They took off way faster than anyone envisioned. It takes some hindsight to say Gray and Castillo would be part of the next good Reds team based upon what was reasonably foreseeable. Once 2022 was shot, it was time to trade Castillo. Mahle too.

The Reds have the money to add some higher end vets this off-season. I want them to do so. However, I’m not going to slam them if they improve the team significantly without spending some arbitrary high dollar amount. I said day one of the rebuild idc if the Reds spend a ton of money or not. Be competent and build a consistent winner. Listening to the Reds are constantly lying, are perpetually stupid, or don’t know what they’re doing is in contradiction to fast rise we saw as a result of the plan in place last year. Instead of saying hmm…maybe they deserve some rope based on early returns on the rebuild, a lot of people are doubling down on the same negative crap from 2 years ago if not longer.

I appreciate that.

I think where we differ is that I don't think there was a necessity for a complete rebuild. They built an above .500 team in 2020 and an 83 win team in 2021 and burned it to the ground. I said in another post that I don't find a complete selloff to be particularly strategic. It's throwing you know what against a wall and hoping enough of it sticks. I think the real skill is identifying which players to trade and when so you can remain competitive instead of creating windows of contention because you hold an auction every 3-5 years.

I also struggle with the concept that the Reds cooked up this brilliant plan of the selloff, yet could not have envisioned the 2023 team could be competitive. If it was a well defined plan, they had to have some inclination the window would be late 2023 or 2024. If they had no idea they could be this good, this quick, I question the intentionality of the original plan and lean more toward the "blind squirrel" theory.

As far as giving the front office credit, they certainly added a bunch of talent by selling off a bunch of talent, they have drafted well and made quality international signings. However, I'm not inclined to give them credit for spending money they haven't spent yet, or supplementing the young talent with veterans when they haven't done it yet. When/if they do, I will decide how I feel about it at that point.

[LiferJim]

Ok let’s play devils advocate. Why was a tear down needed when they made the playoffs in 20 and could have made them in 21 if they spent anything on the bullpen. Why instead of a tear down couldn’t they spend a little bit of money and improve the team. They haven’t won a playoff series in30 years. You seem to be calling scoreboard which is ridiculous because they weren’t good. We were 19th in run differential. Yes someone is An apologist when no matter what a team does they will find an excuse. They didn’t spend money because this, they wanted to many prospects. To let you know the very definition of a lie is saying something and not doing it. Then their you go making more excuses about why he said something and didn’t do it. The only thing I agree on is we want the Reds to win I just want it now not when you ferl they are ready because they weren’t ready this year, so no sense trying when they were in first place.

Come on now, 1st place teams are never ready. You know what they say about excuses...

[Old school 1983]

I appreciate that.

I think where we differ is that I don't think there was a necessity for a complete rebuild. They built an above .500 team in 2020 and an 83 win team in 2021 and burned it to the ground. I said in another post that I don't find a complete selloff to be particularly strategic. It's throwing you know what against a wall and hoping enough of it sticks. I think the real skill is identifying which players to trade and when so you can remain competitive instead of creating windows of contention because you hold an auction every 3-5 years.

I also struggle with the concept that the Reds cooked up this brilliant plan of the selloff, yet could not have envisioned the 2023 team could be competitive. If it was a well defined plan, they had to have some inclination the window would be late 2023 or 2024. If they had no idea they could be this good, this quick, I question the intentionality of the original plan and lean more toward the "blind squirrel" theory.

As far as giving the front office credit, they certainly added a bunch of talent by selling off a bunch of talent, they have drafted well and made quality international signings. However, I'm not inclined to give them credit for spending money they haven't spent yet, or supplementing the young talent with veterans when they haven't done it yet. When/if they do, I will decide how I feel about it at that point.

I think the 2021 team had too many career years and a swan song season from Votto. I won’t go into full details because I know I have many times previously. Also, the payroll was near tapped based upon what the Reds would actually spend. IMO they’d have been chasing their tails for around 80 wins and not have the ability to add much to it. The team was flawed.

And to the blind squirrel theory…I’m not sure if I’m used that terminology exactly, but I said we’d be hearing it is luck when the rebuild started to bear fruit. Given the glut of talent, and the level of talent, in the system, it was reasonably foreseeable the Reds would be good and relatively soon. To the 2023 bs 2024 question in relation to keeping Castillo, Gray, and Mahle, it was pretty reasonable to give the rebuild a 2024 eta. Those guys would all be gone anyway at that point. Why not turn them into more prospects to further build the pipeline. I don’t think it was a blind squirrel thing at all. The Reds knew what was coming from A-AA in 2022. They added to it. Sure, there’s a bit of seeing what sticks when it comes to prospects. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t a plan and it was just luck.

Anyway, the time to add some established pieces is now. I hope they do it. And I think they’ll be active this off-season.

[mth123]

I appreciate that.

I think where we differ is that I don't think there was a necessity for a complete rebuild. They built an above .500 team in 2020 and an 83 win team in 2021 and burned it to the ground. I said in another post that I don't find a complete selloff to be particularly strategic. It's throwing you know what against a wall and hoping enough of it sticks. I think the real skill is identifying which players to trade and when so you can remain competitive instead of creating windows of contention because you hold an auction every 3-5 years.

I also struggle with the concept that the Reds cooked up this brilliant plan of the selloff, yet could not have envisioned the 2023 team could be competitive. If it was a well defined plan, they had to have some inclination the window would be late 2023 or 2024. If they had no idea they could be this good, this quick, I question the intentionality of the original plan and lean more toward the "blind squirrel" theory.

As far as giving the front office credit, they certainly added a bunch of talent by selling off a bunch of talent, they have drafted well and made quality international signings. However, I'm not inclined to give them credit for spending money they haven't spent yet, or supplementing the young talent with veterans when they haven't done it yet. When/if they do, I will decide how I feel about it at that point.

Excellent post!

[mth123]

I do think we are forgetting about the monetary issues around all of this. Covid ate their lunch and the Bally situation was brewing and threatening to take a huge chunk of their revenue. So, I understand a sell-off to some extent. I'll never understand completely abandoning the entire rotation though.

I'm becoming higher and higher on Marte every day and I think Arroyo will prove to be the long-term SS (with EDLC in CF eventually). Still, if I could ship them both back to Seattle for Castillo at his contract, I wouldn't bat an eye before saying yes to that.

[Old school 1983]

I do think we are forgetting about the monetary issues around all of this. Covid ate their lunch and the Bally situation was brewing and threatening to take a huge chunk of their revenue. So, I understand a sell-off to some extent. I'll never understand completely abandoning the entire rotation though.

I'm becoming higher and higher on Marte every day and I think Arroyo will prove to be the long-term SS (with EDLC in CF eventually). Still, if I could ship them both back to Seattle for Castillo at his contract, I wouldn't bat an eye before saying yes to that.

IMO they calculated the eta for the rebuild to bear fruit in earnest to be 2024. At that point, the rotations members would be gone anyway. Why not use those chips to add more prospects to the system while their value was high. We’ve seen the payflex coming since the 2022 sell off. Maybe they figured that they could add veteran picturing when the time comes with that money or the trade of prospects instead of keeping those guys around. Pitching is volatile and 2 years on an arm can be a long time. The thought may have just been reload as needed when the time comes.

[Homer Bailey]

What has to be acknowledged in this rebuild, is the longevity of this window.

-6 years of Marte is a long time.
-6 years of Steer is a long time.
-6 years of CES is a long time.
-6 years of Arroyo is a long time, and in a slightly different window that gives the Reds some options in the future if they can't extend EDLC/McLain (unlikely)
-6 years of Petty (also in a different window)

None of those guys are Boras guys, and are candidates for extensions (lock Marte up right now pls) so you may get even more than 6 years out of them.

You gotta give up stuff to get stuff. To get all of that out of Castillo and Mahle is remarkable, and has set the Reds up for a ton of success. They're cheap, and it gives the Reds a great opportunity to fill their gaps with free agents or trades. They needed a core to build around. Just EDLC/McLain would not have been enough to build around, IMO.

Yes both players would have been valuable to the Reds last year, but I feel a ton better about getting six shots at it with this crew than I would have one Hail Mary in 2023.

Personally, I'd rather the Reds tear it down completely to build back up than middle around, and waste the value that Castillo and Mahle returned. (The Gray trade is still TBD on how that will play out long term, but Petty fits the timeline better than Gray did.)

[MoneyInTheBank]

I think the 2021 team had too many career years and a swan song season from Votto. I won’t go into full details because I know I have many times previously. Also, the payroll was near tapped based upon what the Reds would actually spend. IMO they’d have been chasing their tails for around 80 wins and not have the ability to add much to it. The team was flawed.

And to the blind squirrel theory…I’m not sure if I’m used that terminology exactly, but I said we’d be hearing it is luck when the rebuild started to bear fruit. Given the glut of talent, and the level of talent, in the system, it was reasonably foreseeable the Reds would be good and relatively soon. To the 2023 bs 2024 question in relation to keeping Castillo, Gray, and Mahle, it was pretty reasonable to give the rebuild a 2024 eta. Those guys would all be gone anyway at that point. Why not turn them into more prospects to further build the pipeline. I don’t think it was a blind squirrel thing at all. The Reds knew what was coming from A-AA in 2022. They added to it. Sure, there’s a bit of seeing what sticks when it comes to prospects. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t a plan and it was just luck.

Anyway, the time to add some established pieces is now. I hope they do it. And I think they’ll be active this off-season.

We are drifting back into the binary "complete teardown or running it back with the 2021 team". Castillo signed a very reasonable extension with Seattle, so I'm not sure that he was "gone anyway". And we are now talking about a WILLINGNESS to spend when the ABILITY was always there. There were those on this board who advocated for signing good pieces to multi year deals last offseason rather than deciding to spend all of a sudden.

Let's be clear, I did not say they have gotten lucky. What I said was I don't see how both things can be true. If they knew this group (which largely came from in house) would be good and relatively soon, it's unconscionable to me that they willfully neglected the roster the last 2 seasons. On the other hand, if they didn't add to the roster because the prospects (which, again, came from in house and not from the trades) were a revelation to them, then do they have a vision for putting the right pieces around them (or the willingness to spend for them)? When the next wave of prospects arrives (which I would have to assume they won't see coming) do they know which players are keepers and which ones to sell? Or will it just be a complete selloff again to re-stock because we need the most talent to ensure it will work? For the record, Occam's razor tells me option 3 is the most likely, which is they willfully punted 2 seasons for financial reasons because "where you gonna go?"

I do think I need to clarify because I don't think I conveyed it well. When I am talking about "blind squirrel" with this front office, I'm referring to team building. There definitely appears to be prospect talent identification. They get a solid A grade from me on that. This offseason will be the litmus test for me. Can they or are they willing to build a team with a mix of veteran winners and young talent? Or is the plan to throw a bunch of talent in a blender and hope it makes a smoothie (blind squirrel)?

[mth123]

IMO they calculated the eta for the rebuild to bear fruit in earnest to be 2024. At that point, the rotations members would be gone anyway. Why not use those chips to add more prospects to the system while their value was high. We’ve seen the payflex coming since the 2022 sell off. Maybe they figured that they could add veteran picturing when the time comes with that money or the trade of prospects instead of keeping those guys around. Pitching is volatile and 2 years on an arm can be a long time. The thought may have just been reload as needed when the time comes.

Then last year they should have gotten somebody else who would be here last year this year and next year. I'm not a fan of throwing all the kids into the rotation at once even in a year you don't expect to compete.

[MoneyInTheBank]

What has to be acknowledged in this rebuild, is the longevity of this window.

-6 years of Marte is a long time.
-6 years of Steer is a long time.
-6 years of CES is a long time.
-6 years of Arroyo is a long time, and in a slightly different window that gives the Reds some options in the future if they can't extend EDLC/McLain (unlikely)
-6 years of Petty (also in a different window)

None of those guys are Boras guys, and are candidates for extensions (lock Marte up right now pls) so you may get even more than 6 years out of them.

You gotta give up stuff to get stuff. To get all of that out of Castillo and Mahle is remarkable, and has set the Reds up for a ton of success. They're cheap, and it gives the Reds a great opportunity to fill their gaps with free agents or trades. They needed a core to build around. Just EDLC/McLain would not have been enough to build around, IMO.

Yes both players would have been valuable to the Reds last year, but I feel a ton better about getting six shots at it with this crew than I would have one Hail Mary in 2023.

Personally, I'd rather the Reds tear it down completely to build back up than middle around, and waste the value that Castillo and Mahle returned. (The Gray trade is still TBD on how that will play out long term, but Petty fits the timeline better than Gray did.)

I'm there on Mahle and maybe Gray (because of his injuries) but aces like Castillo just don't come available. Thus the hefty return and the eye popping prices this offseason for non-ace starters. I don't consider signing an ace to an extension to be middling around. Especially if you thought the team would be good halfway through that extension

[Old school 1983]

We are drifting back into the binary "complete teardown or running it back with the 2021 team". Castillo signed a very reasonable extension with Seattle, so I'm not sure that he was "gone anyway". And we are now talking about a WILLINGNESS to spend when the ABILITY was always there. There were those on this board who advocated for signing good pieces to multi year deals last offseason rather than deciding to spend all of a sudden.

Let's be clear, I did not say they have gotten lucky. What I said was I don't see how both things can be true. If they knew this group (which largely came from in house) would be good and relatively soon, it's unconscionable to me that they willfully neglected the roster the last 2 seasons. On the other hand, if they didn't add to the roster because the prospects (which, again, came from in house and not from the trades) were a revelation to them, then do they have a vision for putting the right pieces around them (or the willingness to spend for them)? When the next wave of prospects arrives (which I would have to assume they won't see coming) do they know which players are keepers and which ones to sell? Or will it just be a complete selloff again to re-stock because we need the most talent to ensure it will work? For the record, Occam's razor tells me option 3 is the most likely, which is they willfully punted 2 seasons for financial reasons because "where you gonna go?"

I do think I need to clarify because I don't think I conveyed it well. When I am talking about "blind squirrel" with this front office, I'm referring to team building. There definitely appears to be prospect talent identification. They get a solid A grade from me on that. This offseason will be the litmus test for me. Can they or are they willing to build a team with a mix of veteran winners and young talent? Or is the plan to throw a bunch of talent in a blender and hope it makes a smoothie (blind squirrel)?

The Reds didn’t act as a binary though. I think hindsight creates that. They went into the 2022 season with Castillo and Mahle in the rotation. There was a gap in time from the initial off-season sell and the deadline sell. Once they realized 2022 was essentially over, they traded those guys at the deadline. A middle ground was actually taken there and on further assessment, the Reds chose to sell those guys for prospects. Given the reasonable projected timeline for success, I agree with those moves.

You’re making a valid argument that they could have done something in between keep 2021 and tear down. I just think the clean slate was the way to go in order to build sustainably moving forward.

[Kc61]

IMO they calculated the eta for the rebuild to bear fruit in earnest to be 2024. At that point, the rotations members would be gone anyway. Why not use those chips to add more prospects to the system while their value was high. We’ve seen the payflex coming since the 2022 sell off. Maybe they figured that they could add veteran picturing when the time comes with that money or the trade of prospects instead of keeping those guys around. Pitching is volatile and 2 years on an arm can be a long time. The thought may have just been reload as needed when the time comes.

Doubtful Reds expected such W-L success in 2023. IMO Reds have been shooting for a long window of success for the second half of this decade. They are now faced with an unexpected situation: both a winning team and lots of payflex for 2024.

They hopefully will adjust and spend, but I wouldnt be shocked if they decide to “enjoy” the low payroll for awhile.

[Bourgeois Zee]

After reading a couple articles on it, I'm dreaming of a Glasnow deal. I'm trying to get there.

I've come up with three permutations.

If the Rays are reloading, not tearing down:
Reds trade CF TJ Friedl, C Tyler Stephenson, 2B/3B Jonathan India, SS prospect Edwin Arroyo, and either Lyon Richardson or Connor Phillips for OF Manuel Margot and SP Tyler Glasnow.
- Rays get above average help at three spots and add for the future as well. This is likely an overpay for one year of Glasnow, but the Reds get a real ace at the cost of some offensive depth and a switch from Friedl to Margot. This isn't a great deal unless Margot bounces back with a solid offensive season or Blake Dunn proves he's basically TJ Friedl with more pop and speed.

If the Rays are blowing it up:
Reds trade SP Connor Phillips, SP Lyon Richardson, SS Edwin Arroyo, and 3B Cam Collier for Glasnow. Reds gut most of their farm depth, but grab the sure thing TOR ace they need. This also feels a little heavy in terms of price, but it's the type of deal I could see Tampa agreeing to.

Or in a deal that would be talked about for perhaps a generation, who'd say no to this one?:
Reds trade EDLC for Glasnow and Wander Franco. Rays get rid of the headache of Franco-- and the cost of that blowback. If he's found guilty, the Reds can release him. If he's exonerated, he becomes a pretty great player for a generation. The gamble, of course, is the $300M. (Which, to be fair, would be negated-- I assume-- should he be found guilty and jailed.)

[WrongVerb]

After reading a couple articles on it, I'm dreaming of a Glasnow deal. I'm trying to get there.

I've come up with three permutations.

If the Rays are reloading, not tearing down:
Reds trade CF TJ Friedl, C Tyler Stephenson, 2B/3B Jonathan India, SS prospect Edwin Arroyo, and either Lyon Richardson or Connor Phillips for OF Manuel Margot and SP Tyler Glasnow.
- Rays get above average help at three spots and add for the future as well. This is likely an overpay for one year of Glasnow, but the Reds get a real ace at the cost of some offensive depth and a switch from Friedl to Margot. This isn't a great deal unless Margot bounces back with a solid offensive season or Blake Dunn proves he's basically TJ Friedl with more pop and speed.

If the Rays are blowing it up:
Reds trade SP Connor Phillips, SP Lyon Richardson, SS Edwin Arroyo, and 3B Cam Collier for Glasnow. Reds gut most of their farm depth, but grab the sure thing TOR ace they need. This also feels a little heavy in terms of price, but it's the type of deal I could see Tampa agreeing to.

Or in a deal that would be talked about for perhaps a generation, who'd say no to this one?:
Reds trade EDLC for Glasnow and Wander Franco. Rays get rid of the headache of Franco-- and the cost of that blowback. If he's found guilty, the Reds can release him. If he's exonerated, he becomes a pretty great player for a generation. The gamble, of course, is the $300M. (Which, to be fair, would be negated-- I assume-- should he be found guilty and jailed.)

I like the idea of acquiring Glasnow as well. But, you're grossly overpaying. At BTV, Glasnow is worth roughly a package of Lyon Richardson and Hector Rodriguez, or a different package of Phillips and Jay Allen. The Rays don't want to pay the $25M next season, so they're motivated to move him. Combine that with the questions about his durability, and that brings his price way down.

[Kc61]

After reading a couple articles on it, I'm dreaming of a Glasnow deal. I'm trying to get there.

I've come up with three permutations.

If the Rays are reloading, not tearing down:
Reds trade CF TJ Friedl, C Tyler Stephenson, 2B/3B Jonathan India, SS prospect Edwin Arroyo, and either Lyon Richardson or Connor Phillips for OF Manuel Margot and SP Tyler Glasnow.
- Rays get above average help at three spots and add for the future as well. This is likely an overpay for one year of Glasnow, but the Reds get a real ace at the cost of some offensive depth and a switch from Friedl to Margot. This isn't a great deal unless Margot bounces back with a solid offensive season or Blake Dunn proves he's basically TJ Friedl with more pop and speed.

If the Rays are blowing it up:
Reds trade SP Connor Phillips, SP Lyon Richardson, SS Edwin Arroyo, and 3B Cam Collier for Glasnow. Reds gut most of their farm depth, but grab the sure thing TOR ace they need. This also feels a little heavy in terms of price, but it's the type of deal I could see Tampa agreeing to.

Or in a deal that would be talked about for perhaps a generation, who'd say no to this one?:
Reds trade EDLC for Glasnow and Wander Franco. Rays get rid of the headache of Franco-- and the cost of that blowback. If he's found guilty, the Reds can release him. If he's exonerated, he becomes a pretty great player for a generation. The gamble, of course, is the $300M. (Which, to be fair, would be negated-- I assume-- should he be found guilty and jailed.)

For one year of Glasnow?

Thankfully Reds won’t entertain those kinds of packages.